Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was slightly lower in nearby months but slightly higher in deferred months in continued narrow range trading. Support for the deferred months came from follow through buying tied to more talk from both sides that the US and China were close to a partial deal that would allow agricultural exports to flow to China in exchange for a truce in the tariff increases. Nearby months were lower as the harvest continues and producers deliver or store the crop. The harvest is active around storms that have hit most growing areas in the last week. Snow was reported in Texas and there are concerns that quality could have been affected. Quality reports have been high until now and the crop yields appear to be in line with the USDA estimates. Western areas are also reporting good quality and yields. Good quality and yields are being reported in the Delta and Southeast. There is some concern that quality could be lost as the result of big rains in the last week. Rains and snows are forecast for Texas this week and eastern areas should get more rains. Better harvest conditions should return this weekend.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see showers and big rains today, then dry weather, and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be below normal. The USDA average price is now 61.86 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 24,948 bales, from 23,378 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6440, 6400, and 6370 December, with resistance of 6570, 6580, and 6750 December.
General Comments: FCOJ was mostly a little lower on follow through speculative selling. Speculators bought November and that month closed a little higher before First Notice Day late this week. Trends are down. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates are bearish. Private sources show that there are less oranges per tree but the oranges are bigger and hold more acid. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no hurricanes or other severe storms so far this year. Some areas have been dry lately and some irrigation has been used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Rains are falling in Brazil and trees are flowering now.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives. Support is at 92.00, 89.00, and 86.00 November, with resistance at 97.00, 99.00, and 101.00 November.
General Comments: Futures were higher in early trading, but speculators began to sell again when resistance in New York held. London closed mixed as shorts get out of November and roll forward. Forecasts for the rest of the week call for warmer and drier weather in Brazil. The Coffee areas are short on rain although there have been some timely rains to get the flowering going and to give producers the hopes for good crops. Timely rains will be needed to maintain the flowers and keep hopes for good crops alive. Coops and others report less on offer in Brazil right now and some appear to have sold all old crop supplies. This market could stay tight until cherries form and producers can make estimates on production potential. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers as producers. Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are a little higher today at 2.240 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 98.78 ct/lb. Brazil will mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Scattered showers are likely again on Sunday. Vietnam will see scattered showers in all areas.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 101.00 and 104.00 December. Support is at 98.00, 96.00, and 94.00 December, and resistance is at 102.00, 103.00 and 105.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1260, 1300, and 1420 November. Support is at 1220, 1200, and 1180 November, and resistance is at 1280, 1290, and 1310 November.
General Comments: Futures closed lower in New York and in London as prices gave back much of the gains seen on Monday. The US Dollar continued firm but so did the Brazilian Real. The stronger Real should take some Sugar off the market. The trade is on its way to Brazil for an industry dinner so the trade should get slower this week. The charts show that trends are still trying to turn up. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area. However, most think there is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later. Reports from India indicate that a major storm is moving into eastern parts of the country and into Pakistan and that some cane could be lost. India still has a lot of Sugar in storage from previous crops. However, these supplies are apparently not moving and this could be due to less government subsidy for mills and exporters. Europe and Russia are probably buying in the world market after poor growing seasons. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there. There is some talk that dry weather could hit Brazil growing areas, but this is helping the harvest and is keeping sucrose levels higher.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather until scattered showers appear on Sunday. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1280 and 1310 March. Support is at 1240, 1220, and 1210 March, and resistance is at 1260, 1290, and 1300 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 343.00 and 348.00 December. Support is at 336.00, 333.00, and 331.00 December, and resistance is at 345.00, 348.00, and 349.00 December.
General Comments: Futures closed higher in both markets and both markets are in the middle of the recent trading range. Harvest is now active in West Africa and reports are that good volumes and quality are expected. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region. Ivory Coast arrivals are off to a fast start and are above year ago levels four weeks into the season. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. Ideas are that the next crop will be very good.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will be near to below normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.403 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2370 and 2270 December. Support is at 2420, 2410, and 2370 December, with resistance at 2480, 2500, and 2530 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1890, 1860, and 1850 December, with resistance at 1940, 1950, and 1990 December.