About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was mixed to slightly lower in narrow range trading. Support for the deferred months came from follow through buying tied to talk that the US and China were close to a partial deal that would allow agricultural exports to flow to China in exchange for a truce in the tariff increases. Nearby months were lower as the harvest continues and producers deliver or store the crop. The harvest is active around storms that have hit most growing areas in the last week. Snow was reported in Texas and there are concerns that quality could have been affected. Quality reports have been high until now and the crop yields appear to be in line with the USDA estimates. Western areas are also reporting good quality and yields. Good quality and yields are being reported in the Delta and Southeast. There is some concern that quality could be lost as the result of big rains in the last week. Rains and snows are forecast for Texas this week and eastern areas should get more rains.
Overnight News: The Delta should see showers and big rains over the middle of the week, and Southeast should see showers over the middle of the week. Temperatures should be on both sides of normal. Texas will have some snow today and over the middle of the week. Temperatures will be below of normal. The USDA average price is now 61.93 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 23,378 bales, from 19,979 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6440, 6400, and 6370 December, with resistance of 6570, 6580, and 6750 December.

Crop Progress
Date 27-Oct 20-Oct 2018 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 95 93 91 93
Cotton Harvested 46 40 43 43
Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 5 15 40 33 7
Cotton Last Week 5 18 36 33 8
Cotton Last Year 18 16 31 27 8

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower on speculative selling as futures broke through chart support. Speculators turned sellers and pushed prices to the lows of the day. Trends are down again in the market. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates are bearish. Private sources show that there are less oranges per tree but the oranges are bigger and hold more acid. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no hurricanes or other severe storms so far this year. Some areas have been dry lately and some irrigation has been used. A storm moved through central and northern areas of the state over the weekend but mostly brought rain. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 30% above last year. Rains are falling in Brazil and trees are flowering now.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers early this week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives. Support is at 92.00, 89.00, and 86.00 November, with resistance at 102.00, 103.00, and 105.00 November.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher in both markets yesterday on what appeared to be speculative buying. Forecasts for the rest of the week call for warmer and drier weather in Brazil. The Coffee areas are short on rain although there have been some timely rains to get the flowering going and to give producers the hopes for good crops. Timely rains will be needed to maintain the flowers and keep hopes for good crops alive. Coops and others report less on offer in Brazil right now and some appear to have sold all old crop supplies. This market could stay tight until cherries form and producers can make estimates on production potential. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers as producers and traders will need to create new storage space and are expected to do this by selling old crop Coffee. Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.239 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 99.57 ct/lb. Brazil will mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers in all areas.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 101.00 and 104.00 December. Support is at 98.00, 96.00, and 94.00 December, and resistance is at 102.00, 103.00 and 105.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1260, 1300, and 1420 November. Support is at 1220, 1200, and 1180 November, and resistance is at 1280, 1290, and 1310 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed higher in New York and in London on strength in the Real against the US Dollar. The stronger Real should take some Sugar off the market. The trade is on its way to Brazil for an industry dinner so the trade should get slower this week. The charts show that trends are trying to turn up. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area. However, most think there is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later. Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. However, these supplies are apparently not moving and this could be due to less government subsidy for mills and exporters. Europe and Russia are probably buying in the world market after poor growing seasons. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there. There is some talk that dry weather could hit Brazil growing areas, but this is helping the harvest and is keeping sucrose levels higher.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1280 and 1310 March. Support is at 1240, 1220, and 1210 March, and resistance is at 1260, 1290, and 1300 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 343.00 and 348.00 December. Support is at 336.00, 333.00, and 331.00 December, and resistance is at 345.00, 348.00, and 349.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher in both markets. Harvest is now active in West Africa and reports are that good volumes and quality are expected. The quarterly grind data was mixed and left people wondering how good the demand for chocolate will be. Chart trends are mixed. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region. Ivory Coast arrivals are off to a fast start and are above year ago levels four weeks into the season. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. Ideas are that the next crop will be very good.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will be near to below normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.410 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2370 and 2270 December. Support is at 2420, 2410, and 2370 December, with resistance at 2480, 2500, and 2530 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1890, 1860, and 1850 December, with resistance at 1940, 1950, and 1990 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322