About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was slightly lower in narrow range trading. Support came from follow through buying tied to talk that the US and China were close to a partial deal that would allow agricultural exports to flow to China in exchange for a truce in the tariff increases. Cotton producers hope that China will buy some Cotton from the US but China has not been doing this. It has concentrated on Soybeans and Pork purchases instead. Export demand has not been real strong as a result. The harvest is active around storms that have hit most growing areas in the last week. Snow was reported in Texas and there are concerns that quality could have been affected. Quality reports have been high until now and the crop yields appear to be in line with the USDA estimates. Western areas are also reporting good quality and yields. Good quality and yields are being reported in the Delta and Southeast. There is some concern that quality could be lost as the result of big rains in the last week.
Overnight News: The Delta should see showers and big rains over the middle of the week, and Southeast should see showers over the middle of the week. Temperatures should be on both sides of normal. Texas will have some snow today and over the middle of the week. Temperatures will be below of normal. The USDA average price is now 62.04 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 19,979 bales, from 14,587 bales yesterday. China imported 83,282 tons of Cotton in September, down 38.4% from last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6440, 6400, and 6370 December, with resistance of 6570, 6580, and 6750 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 22, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 307,828
: Positions :
: 27,677 38,563 81,790 98,826 148,792 84,015 26,298 292,308 295,443: 15,521 12,386
: Changes from: October 15, 2019 (Change in open interest: -3,126) :
: -445 -8,644 -5,097 2,215 9,169 422 1,033 -2,904 -3,538: -222 412
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.0 12.5 26.6 32.1 48.3 27.3 8.5 95.0 96.0: 5.0 4.0
: Total Traders: 307 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 82 90 99 60 65 51 27 253 228:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher in mostly quiet trading. The market remains in a medium term trading range as the hurricane season starts to wind down. Speculators will look for weaker prices to start to position for a freeze event in the Winter. In the meantime, good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates are bearish. Private sources show that there are less oranges per tree but the oranges are bigger and hold more acid. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no hurricanes or other severe storms so far this year. Some areas have been dry lately and some irrigation has been used. A storm moved through central and northern areas of the state over the weekend but mostly brought rain. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 30% above last year. Rains are falling in Brazil and trees are flowering now.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers early this week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 97.00, 96.00, and 95.00 September, with resistance at 101.00, 104.00, and 105.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 22, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 20,359 :
: Positions :
: 11,174 7,992 1,367 0 70 727 6,692 179 887 919 2,244 :
: Changes from: October 15, 2019 :
: -597 -332 275 0 0 2 -126 -140 -185 24 -1,207 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 54.9 39.3 6.7 0.0 0.3 3.6 32.9 0.9 4.4 4.5 11.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 71 :
: 22 11 7 0 . . 19 . 15 . 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher on Friday and for the week in New York. London was slightly higher for the week after a stronger day on Friday. New York was lower on more reports of good flowering in Brazil and speculative selling tied to forecasts for better rains in Coffee areas this week. London has been the weaker market as the Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low to provide profits. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers as producers and traders will need to create new storage space and are expected to do this by selling old crop Coffee. The Arabica growing areas got needed rains to start the flowering last week and reports indicate that flowering is off to a very good start. Rains are expected to start again in Coffee areas on Monday. Overall the Coffee areas remain in a rain deficit but have had some timely rains to start the flowering. Many now anticipate a big crop from Brazil next year. However, there was some extreme cold and drought conditions earlier in the year that might have stressed trees and could hurt production potential for this year despite the good weather now. Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are near unchanged today at 2.238 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 98.62 ct/lb. Brazil will mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers in all areas.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 101.00 and 104.00 December. Support is at 96.00, 94.00, and 91.00 December, and resistance is at 100.00, 102.00 and 103.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1260, 1300, and 1420 November. Support is at 1200, 1180, and 1150 November, and resistance is at 1230, 1250, and 1280 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 22, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 371,646
: Positions :
: 31,038 86,412 97,337 145,361 143,342 74,903 31,573 348,640 358,664: 23,006 12,982
: Changes from: October 15, 2019 (Change in open interest: 11,261) :
: 3,286 235 6,614 3,916 7,403 2,411 386 16,226 14,638: -4,965 -3,377
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.4 23.3 26.2 39.1 38.6 20.2 8.5 93.8 96.5: 6.2 3.5
: Total Traders: 473 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 141 133 141 120 108 48 28 387 346:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/22/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
164,302 107,560 58,147 15,557 10,741 2,052
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 65.5% 35.4% 9.5% 6.5% 1.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
157 55 40 16 7 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
4,192 61,533 12,199 4,385 4,384 10,812
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
2.6% 37.5% 7.4% 2.7% 2.7% 6.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
11 35 13 15 9 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,546 4,435
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.6% 2.7%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher in New York and in London on Friday and both markets closed with slight gains for the week. Overall charts trends remain down but the market seems to have discovered some support at current levels. The move higher came despite news from UNICA that production increased in the first half of the month and that mills produced more Sugar and less Ethanol. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area. However, most think there is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later. Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. However, these supplies are apparently not moving and this could be due to less government subsidy for mills and exporters. Europe and Russia are probably buying in the world market after poor growing seasons. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there. There is some talk that dry weather could hit Brazil growing areas, but this is helping the harvest and is keeping sucrose levels higher.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers starting on Sunday. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1190 March. Support is at 1210, 1190, and 1170 March, and resistance is at 1240, 1260, and 1290 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 331.00 and 322.00 December. Support is at 333.00, 331.00, and 326.00 December, and resistance is at 338.00, 340.00, and 342.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 22, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,060,255
: Positions :
: 85,602 301,141 193,880 406,211 396,129 288,832 95,965 974,525 987,115: 85,730 73,140
: Changes from: October 15, 2019 (Change in open interest: 26,440) :
: -2,682 26,492 11,970 20,431 -13,241 -3,418 494 26,301 25,716: 139 724
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.1 28.4 18.3 38.3 37.4 27.2 9.1 91.9 93.1: 8.1 6.9
: Total Traders: 267 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 51 80 83 81 67 40 23 220 210:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/22/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
100,802 46,323 63,997 12,809 870 1,779
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 46.0% 63.5% 12.7% 0.9% 1.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
129 46 45 7 4 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
18,034 14,812 9,807 2,838 1,440 4,398
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
17.9% 14.7% 9.7% 2.8% 1.4% 4.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
24 20 14 4 9 12
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,814 3,699
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.8% 3.7%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower in both markets on Friday and were lower for the week. Cocoa trading has been as much about currency relationships than about supply and demand. Harvest is now active in West Africa and reports are that good volumes and quality are expected. The quarterly grind data was mixed and left people wondering how good the demand for chocolate will be. Chart trends are mixed. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region. Ivory Coast arrivals are off to a fast start and are above year ago levels three weeks into the season. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. The precipitation is a little less now so there are no real concerns about disease. Ideas are that the next crop will be very good. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are doing what they can do boost Cocoa prices and maintain good earnings for producers by paying a living wage differential and are looking to regulate the flow of Cocoa into the world market. The moves could force the big Cocoa processors and grinders to pay more as they contract for Cocoa well in advance to ensure adequate supplies.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will be near to below normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.435 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2370 and 2270 December. Support is at 2420, 2410, and 2370 December, with resistance at 2480, 2500, and 2530 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1910, 1890, and 1860 December, with resistance at 1950, 1990, and 2020 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 22, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 342,102
: Positions :
: 44,691 37,241 89,106 128,997 178,045 61,417 22,650 324,210 327,042: 17,892 15,059
: Changes from: October 15, 2019 (Change in open interest: -4,922) :
: 1,210 3,381 -467 -3,882 -3,900 -1,465 -2,716 -4,603 -3,702: -319 -1,221
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.1 10.9 26.0 37.7 52.0 18.0 6.6 94.8 95.6: 5.2 4.4
: Total Traders: 240 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 78 60 95 41 44 35 19 209 177:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/22/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
418,034 202,337 296,851 38,803 14,378 28,263
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 48.4% 71.0% 9.3% 3.4% 6.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
157 44 48 15 8 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
69,491 3,495 32,622 2,997 1,614 39,019
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
16.6% 0.8% 7.8% 0.7% 0.4% 9.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
38 9 15 11 15 25
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,501 1,791
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.1% 0.4%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322