William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
The mkt appears to have fallen into broad trading range (378-402) since the Sept 30 Qtly Stocks Report – with positive trade rhetoric underpinning the mkt & harvest pressure capping any rallies! The good news is that early harvest lows were posted in mid Sept – taking the “down” out of the mkt- leaving sideways (now) to up (later) as the 2 options!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Mon inspections were 531,744 (480,647) & Thur sales were 368,000 (400-800)
- US CHINA TRADE DEAL – nobody said it would be easy but we’re making progress! Exports are trickling in – communication lines are open & neither party is benefiting from the “trade war”! So we expect a resolution sooner rather than later!
- HARVEST PROGRESS – Corn is 30% in (lw-22, avg-47) – good-to-exc – 56%(55 Ill – 36 (70) Ind – 36 (53) Iowa – 15 (34) Maturity is 86 (lw-73 avg– 47) – given the late start to planting, it will probably be after the first until we have a real handle on yield & production
- COLD SNAP -did some damage to the crops in the NW corn belt but mostly September was one of the warmest on record – allowing the crops to finish
- CHARTS – seem to confirm an early harvest low was registered in mid Sept – but the rally has morphed into a sideways pattern – as the mkt deals with the uncertainties of the 2019 yield & production & a possible settling of our trade issues
- HISTORICALLY CHEAP – corn prices are in the lower 20% of a 10 year range ($3 – $8) – so there’s plenty of upside available – should the fundamentals dictate same!
Nobody wins a trade war & this has been finally understood by the “powers that be” – so we expect a trade resolution before year’s end – plus it would enhance Trump politically with the election just a year away!
Nov Beans have rallied nearly $1.00 (850- 945) since early Sept – feeding off production concerns due to a harvest still well behind average & building optimism over a possible trade pact! Clearly, Nov Beans are the upside leader of the grain complex as they tested the June highs yesterday – whereas Dec Corn & Wht are well off their June highs! But even after this rally, they remain in the lower 20% of their 10 year range! And finally, many feel the final #’s announced in the January report will be well under earlier expectation.
Much like its sister mkts Dec Corn & Nov Beans, Dec Wht has corrected this week from an overbought condition. WW planting is proceeding well -77% (lw-65 avg-75) & Spring Wht harvest is nearly complete – 96% (lw-94 avg – 100)! More than its own supply/demand fundamentals, Wht’s direction will be determined by that of corn & beans – plus the impending US/China trade settlement! There has been mention that China may be in the mkt for wht as well as corn & beans!
Dec Cat continues to be one of the strongest mkts in the ag sector rallying in a near vertical fashion $17 (98.5 – 115.5) since early Sept! The mkt has been fed by a strong cash & beef & a robust economy led by consumer optimism! 4th Qtr production is slated to be under 3rd Qtr by 120 million pounds. The infrequent corrections have been shallow – even when its “sister mkt” Dec Hogs has had substantial drops! The only negative would be that it’s overbought – the mkt anxiously awaits fresh supply/demand info from the Oct COF report issued Friday at 2pm – estimates- mkt 101% – plcmt 102% & on-feed -99%!
Dec Hogs are caught between “what could be” and “what is”! Down the road, our pork exports to China could be huge – given the ASF epidemic that has decimated their Hog herd – resulting in a 200% increase in Chinese pig prices! But that hinges on a US/China trade deal getting done – which although close, has not happened yet! What is a current reality is the record US pork production – reflected by average hog weights 1.8 over last week and 2.5 over last year! And that has pushed Dec Hogs down $7 (72-65) in the past 2 weeks!
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