About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Oct 15
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING OCT 10, 2019
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 10/10/2019 10/03/2019 10/11/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 2,994 294 8,625 4,037
CORN 470,612 473,409 1,013,750 2,496,284 6,921,400
FLAXSEED 100 0 24 172 194
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 798 1,294
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 38,921 88,293 50,857 228,272 122,341
SOYBEANS 954,881 1,051,582 1,224,667 5,161,002 4,804,625
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 462,651 479,335 467,791 9,463,475 7,833,723
Total 1,927,165 2,095,613 2,757,383 17,358,628 19,687,614
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Crop Progress
Date 13-Oct 6-Oct 2018 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 87 83 84 83
Cotton Harvested 32 25 31 27
Corn Dented 96 93 100 100
Corn Mature 73 58 96 92
Corn Harvested 22 15 38 36
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 85 72 94 93
Soybeans Harvested 26 14 37 49
Sorghum Mature 81 65 80 82
Sorghum Harvested 40 33 42 46
Rice Harvested 87 76 87 88
Spring Wheat Harvested 94 91 100 100
Sugar beets Harvested 30 19 42 60
Sunflowers Harvested 6 1 9 13
Peanuts Harvested 55 41 43 42
Winter Wheat Planted 65 52 64 65
Winter Wheat Emerged 41 26 42 40

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 4 17 41 30 8
Cotton Last Week 4 15 42 32 7
Cotton Last Year 11 20 34 29 6

Corn This Week 4 11 30 44 11
Corn Last Week 4 11 29 45 11
Corn Last Year 4 8 20 47 21

Soybeans This Week 4 10 32 45 9
Soybeans Last Week 4 11 32 45 8
Soybeans Last Year 3 8 23 48 12

Sorghum This Week 1 6 28 51 14
Sorghum Last Week 2 5 28 51 14
Sorghum Last Year 6 11 28 44 11

Peanuts This Week 5 11 30 46 8
Peanuts Last Week 4 10 32 49 5
Peanuts Last Year 2 9 31 48 10

Pastures and Ranges This Week 10 18 29 35 8
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 10 17 28 37 8
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 8 13 30 41 8

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on some fund selling. The selling came in part to ideas that there was not really a firm deal with China in place to promote ag sales and in part on forecasts for improving weather after the big Winter system moved through growing areas over the weekend. The charts still suggest that higher prices are coming this week. Futures have been supported lately by the very cold weather and snow that moved through parts of the Great Plains and the western half of the Midwest. The snow buried some of the remaining Spring Wheat harvest and made planting the Winter Wheat that much more difficult. Some of the Spring Wheat will be lost or will see reduced quality. Winter Wheat planting and emergence has been good until now. The weather will start to moderate this week but the damage has been done. Wheat in the Canadian Prairies has seen the same wet and cold weather and reports of yield and quality losses are now being heard. Winter Wheat planting is slow in parts of Europe, mostly France, due to dry weather. The world cash market is firm. Export demand for US Wheat has been fair.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather this week. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 521, 522, and 538 December. Support is at 504, 501, and 497 December, with resistance at 515, 522, and 527 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 433, 434, and 436 December. Support is at 417, 414, and 401 December, with resistance at 428, 433, and 439 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 564 and 581 December. Support is at 541, 536, and 534 December, and resistance is at 552, 557, and 560 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower on what appeared to be a mix of speculator and producer selling. It is the tail end of harvest and some speculators are hoping for producer selling. Some producers are delivering on contracts but most will be content to wait and see how the prices act over the next few weeks. This is common in Rice. The potential for tight supplies in Long Grain Rice are there and should support futures prices. The harvest is winding down in all areas except California and field yields appear to be generally below last year. Milling quality is said to be lower on later harvested Rice but was very good for the early harvested Rice. Basis levels are reported to be firmer as the harvest comes to an end and the Rice gets put in on farm storage.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1183, 1179, and 1173 November, with resistance at 1207, 1217, and 1220 November.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Oct 16
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 14.62 9.33 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.29 9.57 0.00
Brokens 8.82 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower and Oats closed a little lower after making new highs for the move. Corn carry spreads were weak and that implies that some Corn was moving in cash markets. Cash selling has not been confirmed and most producers are more interested in checking crops for damage after the cold weekend or harvesting. It was an unusually cold end of the week and weekend in the Great Plains and Midwest, but temperatures are starting to moderate. Some crops were damaged and loss estimates are around 200 million bushels for now. Conditions remain better east of the Mississippi as temperatures did not get below freezing except for far northern areas that do not really produce grain or oilseeds. Demand remains hard to find. Demand ideas did not get better yesterday after EPA released its proposal for improving ethanol demand. The proposal appears to fall far short of what was promised by the president earlier. Corn futures made a hook reversal to close at new highs for the move on Friday and this is often a bullish indicator for prices this week. December Corn futures could eventually trade to levels above 430 per bushel. The weekly charts in Oats indicate potential for a longer term rally in prices.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 228,500 tons of US Corn yesterday.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 404, 414, and 433 December. Support is at 393, 388, and 385 December, and resistance is at 399, 403, and 409 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 304 December. Support is at 294, 289, and 284 December, and resistance is at 302, 305, and 308 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower on fears that the US side is overstating the deal with China. The trade wants to see Soybeans being bought and shipped, but ideas are that none of this will happen right away. China could wait now until a more formal agreement is in place. Soybean Oil was firm before the release of the bio fuels program by EPA. The proposal was immediately panned by the industry as not enough and well short of what was promised. The weather has started to moderate after the big chill and snow of last week and traders are looking for loss reports. Ideas currently are that about 100 million bushels of Soybeans were lost. The market will start to listen to yield reports from the country for both Soybeans and Corn to see if the lower yields are justified. It is possible that yields for both products will be lower than the latest USDA estimates. The market will also start to keep a closer eye on the weather in South America. It has been too dry in parts of central and northern Brazil and the planting progress has been delayed. There are forecasts for more rains to allow better planting progress appearing in the next couple of weeks. Demand will still be important as traders will want to see some of the sales that the president highlighted late last week and over the weekend.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 945 November. Support is at 931, 924, and 919 November, and resistance is at 945, 950, and 960 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 306.00, 304.00, and 301.00 December, and resistance is at 312.00, 314.00, and 315.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3120 December. Support is at 3020, 3000, and 2980 December, with resistance at 3070, 3110, and 3130 December.

Alerts History
• 15-Oct-2019 11:00:13 AM – U.S. SEPTEMBER SOYBEAN CRUSH 152.566 MLN BU – NOPA
• 15-Oct-2019 11:00:13 AM – U.S. SEPTEMBER SOYOIL STOCKS 1.442 BLN LBS – NOPA
• 15-Oct-2019 11:00:13 AM – U.S. SEPTEMBER SOYMEAL EXPORTS 844,584 TONS – NOPA
NOPA September soy crush below expectations at 152.566 million bushels – Reuters News

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on price action in Chicago and on bad weather in the Prairies. Palm Oil was higher despite worries that weaker export demand would continue. A weaker currency and word that Malaysia will try to improve diplomatic relations with India after recent disparaging comments made in Malaysia about is biggest buyer helped the market move higher. Vegetable oils are firm and Palm Oil is trying to form a bottom. The charts show that futures are turning trends up again.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 465.00 and 476.00 November. Support is at 458.00, 455.00, and 451.00 November, with resistance at 465.00, 468.00, and 469.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2190, 2180, and 2170 January, with resistance at 2220, 2230, and 2260 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions through Saturday, then showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October +37 Dec +170 Dec +65 Sep +33 Nov +12 Dec N/A
November +41 Dec +95 Dec +42 Nov
December +50 Dec +95 Dec +38 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 15
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 431.90 -28.00 Nov 2019 dn 2.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 471.40 10.00 Nov 2019 up 1.50
Basis: Vancouver 481.40 20.00 Nov 2019 up 1.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marektsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 537.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 537.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 545.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 565.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 540.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 540.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 547.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 567.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 535.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 435.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 2,180.00 +70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 142.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1930)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 116,974 lots, or 4.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 3,370 3,371 3,370 3,371 3,363 3,370 7 30 282
Jan-20 3,426 3,431 3,403 3,421 3,430 3,419 -11 97,788 181,878
Mar-20 – – – 3,444 3,444 3,444 0 0 34
May-20 3,702 3,708 3,681 3,691 3,700 3,694 -6 18,278 70,016
Jul-20 3,712 3,735 3,712 3,722 3,723 3,724 1 10 28
Sep-20 3,763 3,780 3,748 3,761 3,769 3,768 -1 868 5,046
Corn
Turnover: 949,100 lots, or 17.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 1,805 1,812 1,799 1,803 1,804 1,805 1 7,372 13,900
Jan-20 1,841 1,855 1,839 1,846 1,842 1,848 6 712,394 1,233,944
Mar-20 1,863 1,874 1,860 1,871 1,866 1,867 1 48,850 305,694
May-20 1,913 1,928 1,911 1,919 1,912 1,920 8 153,038 526,060
Jul-20 1,935 1,952 1,935 1,946 1,936 1,945 9 4,916 8,256
Sep-20 1,958 1,974 1,957 1,968 1,959 1,968 9 22,530 70,238
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,312,608 lots, or 68.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 2,998 3,033 2,996 3,008 3,008 3,013 5 2,286 10,730
Dec-19 2,993 3,026 2,992 2,999 3,003 3,003 0 42,120 237,286
Jan-20 2,969 3,003 2,963 2,970 2,975 2,976 1 1,665,760 2,168,038
Mar-20 2,922 2,954 2,922 2,947 2,941 2,939 -2 82 808
May-20 2,878 2,910 2,866 2,887 2,887 2,889 2 531,870 1,260,324
Jul-20 2,883 2,920 2,879 2,901 2,898 2,900 2 248 4,908
Aug-20 2,900 2,918 2,894 2,914 2,897 2,905 8 36 48
Sep-20 2,920 2,959 2,911 2,931 2,931 2,933 2 70,206 256,004
Palm Oil
Turnover: 977,958 lots, or 47.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-19 – – – 4,880 4,880 4,880 0 0 0
Nov-19 – – – 4,836 4,836 4,836 0 0 4
Dec-19 – – – 4,866 4,866 4,866 0 0 6
Jan-20 4,712 4,814 4,706 4,810 4,682 4,772 90 844,372 500,474
Feb-20 4,834 4,864 4,834 4,860 4,772 4,854 82 8 708
Mar-20 – – – 4,932 4,850 4,932 82 0 4
Apr-20 – – – 4,934 4,852 4,934 82 0 6
May-20 4,998 5,080 4,998 5,076 4,980 5,048 68 129,316 180,416
Jun-20 – – – 5,096 5,028 5,096 68 0 6
Jul-20 – – – 5,072 5,004 5,072 68 0 602
Aug-20 – – – 5,008 4,942 5,008 66 0 2
Sep-20 5,044 5,118 5,044 5,112 5,030 5,092 62 4,262 16,578
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 692,206 lots, or 41.44 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 5,966 5,966 5,966 0 0 4
Dec-19 – – – 5,888 5,888 5,888 0 0 10
Jan-20 5,938 6,012 5,932 6,000 5,918 5,974 56 570,530 697,436
Mar-20 5,986 6,044 5,986 6,044 5,988 6,016 28 12 510
May-20 6,010 6,076 5,996 6,064 5,984 6,038 54 114,210 276,658
Jul-20 6,048 6,048 6,048 6,048 6,048 6,048 0 2 526
Aug-20 – – – 5,982 5,982 5,982 0 0 0
Sep-20 6,038 6,108 6,036 6,100 6,028 6,078 50 7,452 49,728
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322