About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 15
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct. 16, 2019 99 Oct 14, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL October Oct. 16, 2019 64 Oct 14, 2019

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher on the adverse IUS and Canadian weather and hopes for improved demand. The charts suggest that higher prices are coming this week. Futures were supported by the very cold weather and snow that moved through parts of the Great Plains and the western half of the Midwest. The snow buried some of the remaining Spring Wheat harvest and made planting the Winter Wheat that much more difficult. Some of the Spring Wheat will be lost or will see reduced quality. The weather will start to moderate this week but the damage has been done. Wheat in the Canadian Prairies has seen the same wet and cold weather and reports of yield and quality losses are now being heard. Winter Wheat planting is slow in parts of Europe, mostly France, due to dry weather. The world cash market is firm. Export demand for US Wheat has been fair.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather this week. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 521, 522, and 538 December. Support is at 506, 504, and 501 December, with resistance at 515, 522, and 527 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 433, 434, and 436 December. Support is at 420, 417, and 414 December, with resistance at 428, 433, and 439 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 564 and 581 December. Support is at 541, 536, and 534 December, and resistance is at 552, 557, and 560 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower, but made the lows early in the session and then started to recover some of the losses. It is the tail end of harvest and some speculators are hoping for producer selling. Some are delivering on contracts but most will be content to wait and see how the prices act over the next few weeks. This is common in Rice. The market has not really reacted to the potential trade deal with China as China has never been a big buyer of US Rice. However, China has granted permission for imports from the US so that might change in the next few months. The potential for tight supplies in Long Grain Rice are there and should support futures prices. The harvest is winding down in all areas except California and field yields appear to be generally below last year. Milling quality is said to be lower on later harvested Rice but was very good for the early harvested Rice. Basis levels are reported to be firmer as the harvest comes to an end and the Rice gets put in on farm storage. The charts maintain a bullish outlook but many short-term objectives have already been hit.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions this week except for some showers in the south today. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1188, 1183, and 1179 November, with resistance at 1207, 1217, and 1220 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed about unchanged after trading lower for much of the day. Oats were higher. It was primarily a weather based rally once again as a severe storm moved through the Great Plains and the western Midwest and ended the growing season for a lot of producers in these areas. It was an unusually cold end of the week and weekend in these areas, but temperatures are starting to moderate. The producers need a spell of better weather in the west due to the cold and snow that has ended the growing season for many. Conditions remain better east of the Mississippi as temperatures did not get below freezing except for far northern areas that do not really produce grain or oilseeds. Demand remains hard to find. Corn futures made a hook reversal to close at new highs for the move on Friday and this is often a bullish indicator for prices this week. December Corn futures could eventually trade to levels above 430 per bushel. The weekly charts in Oats indicate potential for a longer term rally in prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 404, 414, and 433 December. Support is at 393, 388, and 385 December, and resistance is at 403, 409, and 415 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 304 December. Support is at 294, 289, and 284 December, and resistance is at 299, 302, and 305 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher in response to the extreme weather in the western Midwest and Great Plains and as China bought US Soybeans in anticipation of good progress in trade talks that were held Thursday and Friday. The will try to get an idea of the losses in the coldest areas and the areas with the most snow. It will start to listen to yield reports from the country for both Soybeans and Corn to see if the lower yields are justified. It is possible that yields for both products will be lower than the latest USDA estimates. The market will also start to keep a closer eye on the weather in South America. It has been too dry in parts of central and northern Brazil and the planting progress has been delayed. There are forecasts for more rains to allow better planting progress appearing in the next couple of weeks. Demand will still be important as traders will want to see some of the sales that the president highlighted late last week and over the weekend.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 142,579 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 945 November. Support is at 936, 931, and 924 November, and resistance is at 945, 950, and 960 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 317.00, 320.00, and 324.00 December. Support is at 309.00, 306.00, and 304.00 December, and resistance is at 314.00, 315.00, and 320.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3050 December. Support is at 2980, 2950, and 2930 December, with resistance at 3020, 3040, and 3050 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was closed for a holiday. Palm Oil was higher despite worries that weaker export demand would continue. Vegetable oils are firm and Palm Oil is trying to form a bottom. The charts show that futures have rejected a new move lower and are back inside the bottoming range.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 659,437 tons so far this month, from 700,935 tons last month. AmSpec said that exports are now 684,907 tons, up 2.3% from last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 465.00 and 476.00 November. Support is at 459.00, 455.00, and 451.00 November, with resistance at 465.00, 468.00, and 469.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2190, 2180, and 2170 January, with resistance at 2220, 2230, and 2260 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers possible over the middle of this week. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October +35 Dec +165 Dec +65 Sep +30 Nov +12 Dec N/A
November +43 Dec +82 Dec +40 Nov
December +51 Dec +87 Dec +38 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 11
ICE Canola Cash Close
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Oct. 11 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Friday, Oct. 11.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 434.50 -25.00 Nov 2019 dn 3.80
Track Thunder Bay 469.90 10.00 Nov 2019 up 0.40
Track Vancouver 479.90 20.00 Nov 2019 up 0.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – October 15
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 527.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 527.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 532.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 552.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 530.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 530.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 535.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 555.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 527.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 427.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 2,110.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 139.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1890)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 15
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 140,222 lots, or 4.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 3,371 3,400 3,351 3,375 3,357 3,363 6 88 280
Jan-20 3,434 3,456 3,410 3,426 3,419 3,430 11 118,642 185,928
Mar-20 3,444 3,444 3,444 3,444 3,405 3,444 39 2 34
May-20 3,678 3,719 3,678 3,695 3,678 3,700 22 19,810 66,188
Jul-20 – – – 3,723 3,723 3,723 0 0 26
Sep-20 3,742 3,785 3,739 3,765 3,737 3,769 32 1,680 4,638
Corn
Turnover: 739,780 lots, or 13.73 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 1,803 1,807 1,799 1,801 1,803 1,804 1 17,912 14,118
Jan-20 1,839 1,847 1,837 1,841 1,838 1,842 4 542,180 1,253,122
Mar-20 1,863 1,871 1,860 1,861 1,868 1,866 -2 62,380 294,596
May-20 1,910 1,916 1,909 1,913 1,911 1,912 1 98,138 505,534
Jul-20 1,934 1,940 1,934 1,937 1,939 1,936 -3 922 8,300
Sep-20 1,958 1,965 1,956 1,958 1,960 1,959 -1 18,248 74,970
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,217,388 lots, or 65.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 2,995 3,025 2,995 3,005 2,993 3,008 15 8,684 11,420
Dec-19 2,975 3,025 2,975 3,002 2,994 3,003 9 48,952 226,760
Jan-20 2,968 2,991 2,962 2,973 2,968 2,975 7 1,527,184 2,141,400
Mar-20 2,946 2,959 2,931 2,936 2,938 2,941 3 98 806
May-20 2,930 2,930 2,867 2,880 2,895 2,887 -8 543,584 1,241,968
Jul-20 2,897 2,911 2,883 2,890 2,905 2,898 -7 186 4,966
Aug-20 2,898 2,898 2,897 2,897 2,915 2,897 -18 8 48
Sep-20 2,930 2,946 2,911 2,924 2,941 2,931 -10 88,692 243,846
Palm Oil
Turnover: 425,532 lots, or 20.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-19 – – – 4,880 4,880 4,880 0 0 0
Nov-19 – – – 4,836 4,836 4,836 0 0 4
Dec-19 – – – 4,866 4,866 4,866 0 0 6
Jan-20 4,682 4,706 4,660 4,682 4,726 4,682 -44 373,902 472,278
Feb-20 – – – 4,772 4,816 4,772 -44 0 714
Mar-20 4,850 4,850 4,850 4,850 4,984 4,850 -134 4 4
Apr-20 – – – 4,852 4,984 4,852 -132 0 6
May-20 4,970 5,004 4,962 4,980 5,022 4,980 -42 46,990 176,672
Jun-20 5,028 5,030 5,028 5,030 5,012 5,028 16 4 6
Jul-20 5,070 5,070 4,938 4,938 5,064 5,004 -60 4 602
Aug-20 – – – 4,942 5,000 4,942 -58 0 2
Sep-20 5,028 5,054 5,014 5,024 5,064 5,030 -34 4,628 15,494
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 487,568 lots, or 28.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 5,966 5,966 5,966 0 0 4
Dec-19 5,892 5,928 5,860 5,860 5,900 5,888 -12 10 10
Jan-20 5,920 5,946 5,892 5,926 5,958 5,918 -40 394,306 703,994
Mar-20 5,996 6,000 5,954 5,994 6,062 5,988 -74 10 510
May-20 5,988 6,014 5,956 5,990 6,024 5,984 -40 85,394 263,546
Jul-20 6,048 6,048 6,048 6,048 6,050 6,048 -2 18 526
Aug-20 – – – 5,982 5,982 5,982 0 0 0
Sep-20 6,022 6,044 6,000 6,030 6,070 6,028 -42 7,830 43,716
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322