About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report Thursday and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2019 Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
Thursday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Sept.
Corn Production 13,779.0 13,611 13,173-13,758 13,799
Corn Yield 168.4 166.8 164.5-169.3 168.2
Harvested Acres 81.8 81.5 80.1-82.0 82.0
Soybean Production 3,550.0 3,571 3,473-3,634 3,633
Soybean Yield 46.9 47.1 46.0-48.1 47.9
Harvested Acres 75.6 75.8 74.5-77.2 75.9
****
U.S. 2019-20 Stockpiles (millions)
Thursday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Sept.
Corn 1,929.0 1,684 1,257-1,963 2,190
Soybeans 460.0 510 388-584 640
Wheat 1,043.0 1,014 965-1,054 1,014
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2018-19
Thursday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Sept.
Corn 324.0 323.8 319.0-330.0 329.6
Soybeans 109.9 110.7 109.0-113.0 112.4
Wheat 277.7 277.5 276.0-280.0 277.2
2019-20
Thursday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Sept.
Corn 302.6 296.1 291.0-301.0 306.3
Soybeans 95.2 96.9 92.3-108.8 99.2
Wheat 287.8 285.7 280.5-288.7 286.5

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Oct 10
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soy oil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound) bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD=======================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
19/20 18/19 17/18: 19/20 18/19 17/18: 19/20 18/19 17/18
Soybeans 460.0 913.0 438.0:149.39 148.69 153.07:338.97 358.77 341.62
Brazil na na: 76.50 75.40 76.14:123.00 117.00 122.00
Argentina na na: 8.00 8.15 2.13: 53.00 55.30 37.80
China na na: 0.13 0.12 0.13: 17.10 15.90 15.28
Soyoil 1,525 1,710 1,995: 11.87 11.33 10.54: 57.20 56.12 55.15
Corn 1,929 2,114 2,140:166.59 177.88 147.78: 1,104 1,123 1,078
China na na: 0.02 0.02 0.02:254.00 257.33 259.07
Argentina na na: 33.50 36.00 22.00: 50.00 51.00 32.00
S.Africa na na: 1.50 1.00 2.07: 14.00 11.50 13.10
Cotton(a) 7.00 4.85 4.20: 42.91 41.23 41.41:124.77 119.01 123.78
All Wheat 1,043 1,080 1,099:179.68 173.16 181.90:765.23 730.50 762.31
China na na: 1.30 1.01 1.00:132.00 131.43 134.33
EU 27 na na: 28.00 23.31 23.38:152.00 136.86 151.13
Canada na na: 24.50 24.41 22.00: 33.00 32.20 30.38
Argentina na na: 14.50 12.30 12.73: 20.50 19.50 18.50
Australia na na: 9.50 9.00 13.85: 18.00 17.30 20.94
Russia na na: 34.00 35.40 41.43: 72.50 71.69 85.17
Ukraine na na: 19.50 16.02 17.78: 28.70 25.06 26.98
Sorghum 52.0 64.0 35.0: na na na
Barley 97.0 87.0 94.0: na na na
Oats 37.0 38.0 41.0: na na: na na na
Rice 37.1 44.9 29.4: 45.88 45.28 47.13:497.77 498.95 494.86

DJ Brazil Forecasts Record Soybean Crop of 120.4M Tons for 2019-2020 Season
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian crop agency expects the country’s farmers to produce a record amount of soybeans in the 2019-2020 season as producers increase the area planted and better weather is expected for the end of this year.
Brazilian farmers will grow 120.4 million metric tons of soybeans this season, for which planting has already started, an increase of 4.7% from the 2018-2019 season, when 115 million tons were produced. The area planted is forecast to rise 1.9% to 36.6 million hectares.
Unusually hot and dry weather in some soybean-producing states at the end of last year and the start of this year reduced yields for the 2018-2019 season in areas, leading to a smaller crop in the season than the record 119.3 million tons grown in 2017-2018.
The relatively small increase in the area planted is due to uncertainty about international demand in the face of the continuing trade dispute between the US, normally the world’s biggest soybean producer, and China, the world’s biggest consumer, Conab said.
Lower prices and the increasing cost of opening up new areas for planting also contributed to the slower increase in area planted, according to the agency.
Brazilian farmers will produce a smaller total corn crop in 2019-2020, of 98.4 million metric tons, down 1.7% from the record 100 million tons produced in 2018-2019, Conab said.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 11
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct. 14, 2019 180 Oct 09, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL October Oct. 14, 2019 20 Oct 04, 2019

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on increased world and US ending stocks estimates and reduced US demand for the current crop year. The support in the Minneapolis market was not strong despite a freeze and snow even that happened in the northern Great Plains and in western Canada this week. Very little progress has been made in the last part of the harvest in the US and it seems that there is still a lot of Wheat to be harvested in Canada. Good progress was made in planting the Winter crops. The Winter Wheat crop is getting planted in the central and southern Great Plains as well and probably also in the Pacific Northwest. Southern Midwest Wheat will be planted soon as the Soybeans harvest is finally getting underway.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers and storms this week and drier weather this weekend. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see a big storm hit the rest of this week. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather after the big storm moves out in the next day or two. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 487, 485, and 481 December, with resistance at 500, 504, and 506 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 401, 399, and 397 December, with resistance at 408, 414, and 418 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 516 December. Support is at 531, 522, and 518 December, and resistance is at 536, 541, and 546 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher once again. USDA showed improved yields in Arkansas and higher production. Ending stocks were increased as USDA made no changes to demand. World data showed that there is plenty of Rice around. The weekly export sales report was strong. Harvest activities are about over in Gulf Coast areas with many producers reporting less production than last year. Smut has been a big problem in Texas although quality reports have held up. Mississippi yields are reported as variable and the crop is grading mostly #2. Arkansas yield reports are reported to be holding well despite the extreme growing conditions this year and quality reports indicate that a very high quality crop is being harvested. Good weather in Arkansas and Mississippi should see the harvest wrap up in the next week or two. Demand for long grains in the export market has been strong and Mexico has been a particularly active buyer.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions this week except for some showers on Friday. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1200, 1188, and 1183 November, with resistance at 1220, 1226, and 1227 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn were lower in response to the USDA reports. Oats closed higher. USDA showed a slight increase in yield and this caught the market by surprise as most had looked for USDA to trim yield potential to some degree. USDA also made significant changes to the demand side by cutting 150 million bushels from export demand and 50 million bushels from ethanol demand. Ending stocks for the current crop year were above trade expectations. Futures fell rapidly to support areas but some of the trade expects the market to continue to sink and to move back to 360 basis December futures. However, there is still the uncertain weather to talk about. Ideas that crops in the Great Plains and western Midwest could get damaged from the Winter storm that is starting near the Rocky Mountains provided some support. Ideas of losses coming from a big freeze event later this week in areas to the west and north of Chicago intensified as the weather service is calling for up to two feet of snow in western areas. USDA showed that progress remains far behind and that some significant damage along with some yield loss is very likely.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 377, 375, and 370 December, and resistance is at 384, 388, and 393 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 290 and 304 December. Support is at 284, 281, and 279 December, and resistance is at 290, 293, and 294 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans closed slightly lower and Soybean Meal was lower, mostly in sympathy with Corn and Wheat. News that China had offered to buy a lot of US ag goods under a smaller trade deal provided a little support. Soybeans export sales were huge last week and the major part of the demand came from China. USDA cut yields by one bushel per acre and increased domestic demand to show ending socs below most trade expectations. Questions about the US agreeing to a trade deal with China kept futures from doing more on the rally. Forecasts for a significant Winter storm with freezing temperatures to affect much of the Great Plains and the western Midwest. The market is also concerned about the weather that will happen this weekend. There is the risk of significant quality losses and perhaps yield losses from the event. USDA showed slow crop progress and a slight deterioration in crop condition in its reports Monday night.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 935, 942, and 945 November. Support is at 919, 911, and 908 November, and resistance is at 934, 936, and 941 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 310.00, 312.00, and 320.00 December. Support is at 304.00, 301.00, and 300.00 December, and resistance is at 309.00, 311.00, and 312.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3050 December. Support is at 2950, 2930, and 2920 December, with resistance at 3020, 3040, and 3050 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower in response to the USDA reports. Support came from firm prices in Chicago Soybean Oil, but weakness came from weaker Soybeans and Soybean Meal. Snow is expected in Manitoba today but cold weather are expected through the weekend. Reports indicate that the harvest is only about one-third complete. Palm Oil was lower. Vegetable oils and Crude Oil are firm today. Traders anticipated improved export demand for the first third of the month when private surveyors release estimates. The charts show that futures have rejected a new move lower and are back inside the bottoming range. Higher competing vegetable oils could spark a rally in Palm Oil later this week.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 375,117 tons, from 357,570 tons last month. AmSpec said exports are now 368,737 tons, down 6.2% from last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 465.00 and 476.00 November. Support is at 459.00, 455.00, and 451.00 November, with resistance at 468.00, 470.00, and 473.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2130, 2120, and 2100 December, with resistance at 2180, 2200, and 2220 December.

DJ Malaysia’s September Palm Oil Exports 1.41M Tons; Down 19% -MPOB
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were down 19% on month at 1.41 million metric tons in September, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the September crop data and revised numbers for August, issued by MPOB:
September August Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,842,433 1,821,548 Up 1.15%
Palm Oil Exports 1,409,945 1,735,645 Dn 18.77%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 79,428 89,489 Dn 11.24%
Closing Stocks 2,448,272 2,240,523 Up 9.27%
Crude Palm Oil 1,353,087 1,290,578 Up 4.84%
Processed Palm Oil 1,095,185 949,945 Up 15.29%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers possible later this week with some snow far western areas. Temperatures should average near to below normal this week and below to much below normal this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October +33 Dec +165 Dec +65 Sep +31 Nov +12 Dec N/A
November +42 Dec +80 Dec +42 Nov
December +50 Dec +87 Dec +38 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 10
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for Oct. 10, 2019.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 438.30 -25.00 Nov 2019 dn 4.50
Track Thunder Bay 469.50 10.00 Nov 2019 dn 3.80
Track Vancouver 479.50 20.00 Nov 2019 dn 3.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 11
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 530.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 532.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 537.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 557.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 532.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 535.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 540.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 560.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 530.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 427.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 2,130.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 140.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1865)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 11
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 141,678 lots, or 4.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 3,371 3,371 3,371 0 0 290
Jan-20 3,403 3,440 3,393 3,438 3,401 3,418 17 120,318 195,746
Mar-20 – – – 3,405 3,405 3,405 0 0 34
May-20 3,670 3,700 3,670 3,687 3,690 3,688 -2 20,964 59,366
Jul-20 – – – 3,727 3,727 3,727 0 0 24
Sep-20 3,738 3,759 3,734 3,742 3,743 3,743 0 396 3,470
Corn
Turnover: 844,964 lots, or 15.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 1,800 1,814 1,797 1,814 1,796 1,804 8 9,268 28,586
Jan-20 1,838 1,848 1,831 1,847 1,835 1,840 5 576,958 1,324,016
Mar-20 1,868 1,881 1,866 1,879 1,868 1,871 3 94,090 266,434
May-20 1,913 1,923 1,909 1,921 1,912 1,916 4 135,100 512,750
Jul-20 1,938 1,951 1,936 1,946 1,938 1,944 6 5,882 8,378
Sep-20 1,965 1,979 1,964 1,974 1,966 1,972 6 23,666 71,410
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,891,024 lots, or 85.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 2,986 3,020 2,971 3,011 2,967 2,997 30 16,956 14,884
Dec-19 2,967 3,024 2,967 3,019 2,976 3,003 27 109,720 195,834
Jan-20 2,960 2,998 2,948 2,989 2,951 2,974 23 1,862,894 2,153,052
Mar-20 2,931 2,972 2,929 2,964 2,929 2,956 27 236 790
May-20 2,880 2,927 2,868 2,920 2,870 2,901 31 774,800 1,130,936
Jul-20 2,885 2,933 2,877 2,927 2,878 2,910 32 4,328 4,956
Aug-20 2,941 2,941 2,940 2,940 2,898 2,940 42 4 54
Sep-20 2,925 2,967 2,916 2,960 2,911 2,942 31 122,086 188,918
Palm Oil
Turnover: 588,656 lots, or 28.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-19 – – – 4,880 4,880 4,880 0 0 0
Nov-19 – – – 4,836 4,836 4,836 0 0 4
Dec-19 4,864 4,872 4,864 4,872 4,786 4,866 80 26 6
Jan-20 4,792 4,846 4,776 4,826 4,792 4,800 8 492,484 479,846
Feb-20 – – – 4,890 4,862 4,890 28 0 714
Mar-20 4,972 5,054 4,972 5,054 4,948 5,012 64 4 4
Apr-20 – – – 5,010 5,010 5,010 0 0 6
May-20 5,072 5,144 5,056 5,118 5,066 5,096 30 92,880 161,764
Jun-20 – – – 5,084 5,056 5,084 28 0 8
Jul-20 – – – 5,100 4,904 5,100 196 0 602
Aug-20 – – – 5,000 4,972 5,000 28 0 2
Sep-20 5,134 5,194 5,120 5,164 5,134 5,176 42 3,262 13,172
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 664,288 lots, or 40.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 6,028 6,028 6,028 6,028 5,942 6,028 86 4 4
Dec-19 – – – 5,900 5,900 5,900 0 0 12
Jan-20 5,986 6,058 5,972 6,044 5,986 6,010 24 563,242 712,236
Mar-20 – – – 6,082 6,058 6,082 24 0 512
May-20 6,070 6,128 6,052 6,104 6,066 6,082 16 93,172 251,242
Jul-20 – – – 6,100 6,084 6,100 16 0 526
Aug-20 – – – 5,982 5,968 5,982 14 0 0
Sep-20 6,108 6,166 6,106 6,136 6,112 6,124 12 7,870 32,704
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322