About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2019 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday.
U.S. 2019 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA Sept. USDA 2018
Corn Production 13,611 13,173-13,758 13,799 14,420
Corn Yield 166.8 164.5-169.3 168.2 176.4
Harvested Acres 81.5 80.1-82.0 82.0 81.7
Soybean Production 3,571 3,473-3,634 3,633 4,544
Soybean Yield 47.1 46.0-48.1 47.9 51.6
Harvested Acres 75.8 74.5-77.2 75.9 88.1
Corn Harvestd Soybean Harvested
Production Yield Acres Production Yield Acres
Advanced Market 13,446 166.0 81.0 3,548 47.0 75.5
AgriSource 13,688 166.7 82.0 3,551 46.8 75.9
Allendale 13,755 167.7 N/A 3,604 47.5 N/A
DC Analysis 13,678 166.8 82.0 3,593 47.4 75.9
Doane 13,500 165.0 81.8 3,565 47.0 75.9
EDF Man 13,735 167.5 82.0 3,567 47.0 75.9
Farm Futures 13,758 167.9 82.0 3,634 47.9 75.9
Grain Cycles 13,738 167.5 82.0 3,604 47.5 75.9
INTL FCStone 13,646 169.3 80.6 3,583 48.1 74.5
Kapco Futures 13,724 168.2 81.6 3,593 47.7 75.3
Sid Love Consulting 13,325 164.5 81.0 3,567 47.0 75.9
North Star Commodity 13,732 168.5 81.5 3,574 47.1 75.9
Prime Ag 13,570 166.5 81.5 3,529 46.5 75.9
RJO Brien 13,653 166.5 N/A 3,559 46.9 N/A
RMC 13,529 166.0 81.5 3,473 46.0 75.5
US Commodities 13,653 166.5 82.0 3,582 47.2 75.9
VantageRM 13,694 167.0 82.0 3,567 47.0 75.9
Western Milling 13,173 164.5 80.1 3,591 46.5 77.2

DJ U.S. October Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2019-20
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 1,684 1,257-1,963 2,190
Soybeans 510 388-584 640
Wheat 1,014 965-1,054 1,014
2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market Concepts 1,450 505 1,005
AgriSource 1,727 448 1,025
Allendale 1,905 582 1,037
DC Analysis 1,597 505 1,004
Doane 1,600 465 1005
EDF Man 1,794 482 1,026
Farm Futures 1,963 533 1,047
Grain Cycles 1,762 552 1,017
INTL FCStone 1,665 584 1,002
Kapco Futures 1,758 520 1,010
Sid Love Consulting 1,489 500 984
North Star Commodity 1,842 535 980
Prime-Ag 1,779 469 1,025
RJO Brien 1,612 510 1,054
RMC 1,689 388 1,025
US Commodities 1,612 498 1,041
VantageRM 1,808 581 999
Western Milling 1,257 521 965

DJ October World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2018-19 and 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2018-19
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 323.8 319.0-330.0 329.6
Soybeans 110.7 109.0-113.0 112.4
Wheat 277.5 276.0-280.0 277.2
2019-20
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 296.1 291.0-301.0 306.3
Soybeans 96.9 92.3-108.8 99.2
Wheat 285.7 280.5-288.7 286.5
2018-19 2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 319.0 109.0 276.0 296.0 97.0 283.0
Allendale 322.2 110.6 278.5 300.9 97.8 288.7
Doane 321.0 110.0 277.5 292.5 95.0 285.5
EDF Man N/A N/A N/A 296.0 95.0 284.0
Farm Futures N/A N/A N/A 298.0 96.3 286.7
INTL FCStone 321.0 113.0 276.3 295.8 108.8 286.9
North Star Comm 330.0 112.0 277.2 301.0 95.5 286.0
Prime-Ag 320.0 111.0 278.0 294.0 95.0 287.0
RMC 321.2 109.8 280.0 291.4 92.3 287.5
US Commodities 329.6 109.1 277.2 291.0 95.1 280.5
Western Milling 330.0 112.0 277.2 301.0 98.0 287.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 9
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct. 10, 2019 179 Oct 07, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL October Oct. 10, 2019 52 Oct 02, 2019

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher on what appeared to be speculative buying tied the threat for a big Winter storm to hit the US and also for cold and wet weather in Canada. Chicago SRW was the strongest as it felt the most speculative interest. The support in the Minneapolis market came in response to a freeze and snow even that happened in the northern Great Plains and in western Canada this week. Very little progress has been made in the last part of the harvest in the US and it seems that there is still a lot of Wheat to be harvested in Canada. Good progress was made in planting the Winter crops. The Winter Wheat crop is getting planted in the central and southern Great Plains as well and probably also in the Pacific Northwest. Southern Midwest Wheat will be planted soon as the Soybeans harvest is finally getting underway. USDA will issue another monthly supply and demand update on Thursday but few changes in ending stocks levels are anticipated for this month. The Small Grains production report showed Winter Wheat production about as expected and uncertain Spring Wheat and Durum estimates that will be revised next month.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers and storms this week and drier weather this weekend. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see a big storm hit the rest of this week. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather after the big storm moves out in the next day or two. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 502, 506, and 510 December. Support is at 492, 487, and 485 December, with resistance at 506, 512, and 515 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 417, 425, and 433 December. Support is at 408, 401, and 399 December, with resistance at 414, 420, and 425 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 516 December. Support is at 534, 531, and 522 December, and resistance is at 546, 550, and 552 December.

DJ Russia, Ukraine Sell 295,000 Tons of Wheat to Egypt’s GASC — Market Talk
0724 GMT – Russia and Ukraine restored their dominance as Egypt’s wheat suppliers, selling five cargoes of the grain to the world’s biggest wheat importer late Tuesday. Egypt’s state-importing agency bought 180,000 metric tons of Russian wheat and 115,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat at an average FOB price of $221.64 a ton, according to price-reporting firm AgriCensus. Prices rose from Egypt’s previous tender on Oct. 1, when the General Authority for Supply Commodities booked 60,000 tons of French wheat at $219.35 a ton. Tuesday’s tender was seen as a test of whether French wheat would remain competitive with Eastern European grain following a strong harvest in the European Union’s agricultural powerhouse. The wheat is due to be delivered from Nov. 10-20. (joe.wallace@wsj.com)

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher as the long grain harvest is coming to the end. Harvest activities are about over in Gulf Coast areas with many producers reporting less production than last year. Smut has been a big problem in Texas although quality reports have held up. Mississippi yields are reported as variable and the crop is grading mostly #2. Arkansas yield reports are reported to be holding well despite the extreme growing conditions this year and quality reports indicate that a very high quality crop is being harvested. Good weather in Arkansas and Mississippi should see the harvest wrap up in the next week or two. Demand for long grains in the export market has been strong and Mexico has been a particularly active buyer.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions this week except for some showers on Friday. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1179, 1173, and 1162 November, with resistance at 1200, 1205, and 1220 November.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Oct 9
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 14.18 9.05 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 13.85 9.28 0.00
Brokens 8.55 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher on ideas that crops in the Great Plains and western Midwest could get damaged from the Winter storm that is starting near the Rocky Mountains. Ideas of losses coming from a big freeze event later this week in areas to the west and north of Chicago intensified as the weather service is calling for up to two feet of snow in western areas. USDA showed that progress remains far behind and that some significant damage along with some yield loss is very likely. USDA will issue a production estimate but probably has no real idea of what is going to be the final production as the harvest is just now getting underway in most of the country. Yields so far have been good in parts of Iowa and in a few places east of the Mississippi River, but below historical averages in many areas east of the river. Demand for US Corn has also been disappointing so far this year. The export pace is down to almost half of last year and ethanol demand has been lower than last year. That could keep ending stocks projections relatively higher in the reports.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 396, 397, and 404 December. Support is at 388, 385, and 381 December, and resistance is at 397, 401, and 403 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 290 and 304 December. Support is at 281, 279, and 278 December, and resistance is at 286, 289, and 290 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher on forecasts for a significant Winter storm with freezing temperatures to affect much of the Great Plains and the western Midwest. The market is also concerned about the weather that will happen later this week. There is the risk of significant quality losses and perhaps yield losses from the event. USDA showed slow crop progress and a slight deterioration in crop condition in its reports Monday night. Traders are waiting now for the next round of production and supply and demand reports that will be released on Thursday. Harvest activities are only now getting started so the data that USDA will have to work with on production will be less than normal. Initial yield reports have not been real strong so USDA can find less but just how much less is still a big question. USDA will also have to work with the demand side of the ledger as trade problems still need o be resolved. Demand so far has been good but how USDA sees demand is an open question. Either way, the potential for reduced ending stocks is great and these ideas should help support futures prices this week. The next round of US-China trade talks get underway on Thursday and the trade is not expecting a positive outcome
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 925, 927, and 932 November. Support is at 919, 911, and 908 November, and resistance is at 924, 936, and 941 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 310.00, 312.00, and 320.00 December. Support is at 304.00, 301.00, and 300.00 December, and resistance is at 309.00, 311.00, and 312.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3050 December. Support is at 2980, 2950, and 2930 December, with resistance at 3020, 3040, and 3050 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on slow harvest progress. Support also came from the rally in Chicago Soybean Oil. Snow is expected in western areas today but cold weather are expected through the end of the week. Reports indicate that the harvest is only about one-third complete. Palm Oil was a little higher on stronger outside markets and reports of improving demand. Vegetable oils and Crude Oil are firm today. Traders anticipated improved export demand for the first third of the month when private surveyors release estimates. The charts show that futures have rejected a new move lower and are back inside the bottoming range. Higher competing vegetable oils could spark a rally in Palm Oil later this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 465.00 and 476.00 November. Support is at 459.00, 455.00, and 451.00 November, with resistance at 468.00, 470.00, and 473.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2130, 2120, and 2100 December, with resistance at 2180, 2200, and 2220 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers possible later this week with some snow far western areas. Temperatures should average near to below normal this week and below to much below normal this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October +37 Dec +165 Dec +65 Sep +30 Nov +12 Dec N/A
November +43 Dec +80 Dec +40 Nov
December +51 Dec +85 Dec +38 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 8
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Oct. 8 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Tuesday, Oct. 8.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 440.60 -22.00 Nov 2019 up 1.90
Track Thunder Bay 474.80 10.00 Nov 2019 up 2.20
Track Vancouver 484.80 20.00 Nov 2019 up 2.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 9
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 532.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 537.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 542.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 562.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 535.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 540.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 545.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 565.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 532.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 432.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 2,150.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 141.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1960)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 09
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 125,216 lots, or 4.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 3,382 3,382 3,322 3,360 3,346 3,356 10 30 290
Jan-20 3,380 3,413 3,376 3,410 3,375 3,395 20 110,044 215,058
Mar-20 – – – 3,404 3,355 3,404 49 0 34
May-20 3,660 3,708 3,660 3,706 3,674 3,694 20 13,662 70,058
Jul-20 3,736 3,736 3,736 3,736 3,708 3,736 28 2 24
Sep-20 3,726 3,770 3,725 3,770 3,734 3,751 17 1,478 3,182
Corn
Turnover: 884,552 lots, or 16.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 1,786 1,793 1,783 1,789 1,785 1,787 2 21,276 33,512
Jan-20 1,823 1,832 1,820 1,830 1,821 1,825 4 564,152 1,315,366
Mar-20 1,845 1,863 1,845 1,863 1,845 1,850 5 135,578 190,068
May-20 1,895 1,906 1,889 1,905 1,892 1,897 5 142,926 474,220
Jul-20 1,916 1,932 1,916 1,928 1,917 1,926 9 1,094 4,824
Sep-20 1,950 1,961 1,945 1,960 1,948 1,952 4 19,526 62,588
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,522,924 lots, or 73.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 2,961 2,987 2,948 2,981 2,962 2,974 12 51,942 32,650
Dec-19 2,937 2,990 2,937 2,988 2,967 2,975 8 95,538 134,786
Jan-20 2,910 2,960 2,910 2,959 2,925 2,942 17 1,741,556 2,012,548
Mar-20 2,896 2,935 2,893 2,928 2,898 2,920 22 130 810
May-20 2,807 2,869 2,803 2,869 2,807 2,846 39 548,080 892,866
Jul-20 2,807 2,875 2,807 2,875 2,812 2,838 26 358 1,614
Aug-20 2,876 2,885 2,862 2,885 2,825 2,883 58 102 54
Sep-20 2,838 2,912 2,838 2,912 2,842 2,886 44 85,218 138,944
Palm Oil
Turnover: 579,644 lots, or 27.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-19 – – – 4,880 4,880 4,880 0 0 0
Nov-19 – – – 4,836 4,836 4,836 0 0 4
Dec-19 – – – 4,742 4,742 4,742 0 0 4
Jan-20 4,714 4,800 4,712 4,792 4,696 4,766 70 506,652 468,372
Feb-20 – – – 4,912 4,912 4,912 0 0 716
Mar-20 – – – 4,948 4,876 4,948 72 0 2
Apr-20 – – – 4,916 4,916 4,916 0 0 4
May-20 4,992 5,082 4,988 5,072 4,974 5,044 70 70,480 138,072
Jun-20 – – – 5,132 5,132 5,132 0 0 6
Jul-20 – – – 4,976 4,976 4,976 0 0 602
Aug-20 – – – 5,046 4,976 5,046 70 0 2
Sep-20 5,064 5,142 5,060 5,136 5,044 5,108 64 2,512 10,942
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 632,474 lots, or 37.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 5,942 5,942 5,942 5,942 6,030 5,942 -88 4 4
Dec-19 – – – 5,900 5,894 5,900 6 0 12
Jan-20 5,940 6,012 5,934 5,998 5,932 5,978 46 517,420 688,428
Mar-20 6,026 6,026 6,026 6,026 5,974 6,026 52 2 510
May-20 6,002 6,084 5,990 6,076 5,996 6,048 52 105,620 242,398
Jul-20 6,042 6,092 6,042 6,092 6,036 6,066 30 30 526
Aug-20 – – – 5,952 5,924 5,952 28 0 0
Sep-20 6,074 6,140 6,074 6,120 6,062 6,120 58 9,398 23,210
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322