Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher in consolidation trading. The USDA crop progress reports showed good progress, but the condition report was much more mixed as some crops got better and some got worse. This trend has been a feature of the market all year as the Texas Panhandle and nearby areas have been very hot and dry for a big part of the growing season. Crops in the southeast have seen perhaps too much rain and much cooler weather. These trends have changed in the last couple of weeks and now Texas if getting a little rain while the Southeast has seen record heat and a drought has started to develop. The weekly report showed increased stress in the southeast last week. Some rains were seen in the Southeast over the weekend and temperatures have now moderated. The export demand remains weak. World demand has been weak in part due to the US-China tensions and fears of a recession or at least a global economic slowdown are keeping buyers away. World prices are weak.
Overnight News: The Delta should see mostly dry weather and Southeast should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be mostly below normal. The USDA average price is now 58.97 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 11,136 bales, from 11,136 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 13 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 6190, 6290, and 6590 December. Support is at 6070, 6010, and 5970 December, with resistance of 6220, 6290, and 6340 December.
Date 6-Oct 29-Sep 2018 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 83 77 76 75
Cotton Harvested 25 16 24 20
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 4 15 42 32 7
Cotton Last Week 3 17 40 34 6
Cotton Last Year 6 19 33 32 10
General Comments: FCOJ was higher last week and short-term trends turned up. There are no threats out in the ocean right now but the state of Florida has been dry. Many are expecting increased production estimates from Florida on Thursday when USDA releases its next production reports but the drier weather could mean reduced fruit sizes and less than expected production. Chart patterns are mixed. Inventories in Florida are still 29% above a year ago. Fruit for the next crop is developing and harvest will be starting soon. Crop conditions are called good as irrigation is being used. The dry season there seems to be starting now. Rains are reported in Brazil to start flowering for the next crop.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 104.00 and 105.00 November. Support is at 100.00, 98.00, and 96.00 September, with resistance at 105.00, 106.00, and 108.00 September.
General Comments: New York and London both closed lower on what appeared to be fund selling. Trends turned down in the markets and the funds sold. The weather has been dry in Brazil but rains are being reported now. The weather is also reported to be good in Vietnam. The Arabica growing areas got needed rains to start the flowering last week and more rains were reported over the weekend and are expected this week. Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year. It has been warm and dry at times, then the growing areas have seen some very heavy rains. The harvest there will be underway soon. Demand has been increasing over the last few weeks. Differentials have been stable. Certified stocks in New York keep dropping and suggest that futures remain underpriced when compared to cash prices.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.260 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 97.00 ct/lb. Brazil will get showers with above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers in all areas.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 94.00, 93.00, and 90.00 December. Support is at 95.00, 94.00, and 91.00 December, and resistance is at 100.00, 102.00 and 103.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1220 November. Support is at 1230, 1200, and 1170 November, and resistance is at 1290, 1310, and 1320 November.
General Comments: New York closed lower in both markets on what appeared to be fund selling. Ideas of improving weather in Brazil supported the sellers. Reports from India indicate that the country still has a large surplus of White Sugar that probably must be exported even if production is below expectations for this year. The weather there has improved with the monsoon and some areas are seeing some excessive rains. Brazil mills are refining mostly for ethanol right now as has been the case all season but weakness in the petroleum markets could mean that more Sugar is being produced. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil is good enough and India has improved as the monsoon was late but brought ample rains in the end. The weather has been much more uneven in production areas from Russia into western Europe. Those areas had a very hot and dry start to the growing season. Better weather was seen in early August then it turned hot and dry again. These areas need more rain and some cooler weather to provide better conditions for the final development of the crops.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1230 and 1190 March. Support is at 1230, 1210, and 1190 March, and resistance is at 1260, 1290, and 1300 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 331.00 and 322.00 December. Support is at 335.00, 331.00, and 326.00 December, and resistance is at 341.00, 344.00, and 349.00 December.
General Comments: Futures closed lower and trends are starting to turn down. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is starting to be harvested. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. There were reports last week that Ivory Coast is moving to regulate production with the aim of supporting higher prices to the market. How they plan to do this is not yet known, but both Ivory Coast and Ghana are doing what they can do boost Cocoa prices and maintain good earnings for producers. Growing and harvesting conditions in Asia are also reported to be good. The harvest is ongoing amid somewhat drier weather. More and more Asian Cocoa has been staying at home and processed in Indonesia for export in the region. Demand in Asia has been growing and Indonesia has been eager to be the primary source of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.678 million bags. Ivory Coast arrivals were 34,740 tons last week, from 28,928 tons last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2370 and 2270 December. Support is at 2370, 2340, and 2320 December, with resistance at 2440, 2480, and 2510 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1890, 1870, and 1850 December, with resistance at 1950, 1990, and 2020 December.