About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher in reaction to deteriorating crop conditions. Weekly USDA reports still show a tale of two crops with some crops very good to excellent but some crops very poor. This trend has been a feature of the market all year as the Texas Panhandle and nearby areas have been very hot and dry for a big part of the growing season. Crops in the southeast have seen perhaps too much rain and much cooler weather. These trends have changed in the last couple of weeks and now Texas if getting a little rain while the Southeast has seen record heat and a drought has started to develop. The weekly report showed increased stress in the southeast last week. Some rains were seen in the Southeast over the weekend and temperatures have now moderated. The export demand remains weak. World demand has been weak in part due to the US-China tensions and fears of a recession or at least a global economic slowdown are keeping buyers away. World prices are weak.
Overnight News: The Delta should see dry weather except for showers on Sunday and Southeast should see scattered showers this weekend. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Texas will have scattered showers through this weekend, then dry conditions next week. Temperatures will be mostly above normal. The USDA average price is now 58.81 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 11,136 bales, from 11,136 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 13 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 6190, 6290, and 6590 December. Support is at 6070, 6010, and 5970 December, with resistance of 6220, 6290, and 6340 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 01, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 307,291
: Positions :
: 33,430 67,443 83,477 98,304 123,357 77,062 19,046 292,273 293,323: 15,017 13,968
: Changes from: September 24, 2019 (Change in open interest: 1,104) :
: 831 -817 456 568 80 -387 1,692 1,468 1,411: -363 -306
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.9 21.9 27.2 32.0 40.1 25.1 6.2 95.1 95.5: 4.9 4.5
: Total Traders: 318 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 83 105 97 61 60 48 24 251 236:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher last week but futures did not stray much from unchanged levels. It is just past the high point in the hurricane season and forecasters are still keeping close eyes on the Atlantic. There are no threats out there right now. Chart patterns are mixed. Inventories in Florida are still 29% above a year ago. Fruit for the next crop is developing and harvest will be starting soon. Crop conditions are called good as irrigation is being used. The dry season there seems to be starting now. Rains are reported in Brazil to start flowering for the next crop.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 96.00, 95.00, and 92.00 September, with resistance at 102.00, 103.00, and 105.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 1, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 22,666 :
: Positions :
: 12,048 8,353 1,034 0 70 719 7,142 221 1,076 935 3,919 :
: Changes from: September 24, 2019 :
: -228 -436 -40 0 0 -32 304 74 90 25 198 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 53.2 36.9 4.6 0.0 0.3 3.2 31.5 1.0 4.7 4.1 17.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 76 :
: 24 15 4 0 . . 20 . 14 7 13 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed a little lower after failing to hold new weekly highs. London remained in its range, and both markets closed near the lows of the week. The Arabica growing areas got needed rains to start the flowering last week and more rains were reported over the weekend and are expected this week. Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year. It has been warm and dry at times, then the growing areas have seen some very heavy rains. The harvest there will be underway soon. Demand has been increasing over the last few weeks. Differentials have been stable.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.266 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 98.70 ct/lb. Brazil will get showers with above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers or dry weather.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 98.00, 94.00, and 93.00 December. Support is at 98.00, 97.00, and 95.00 December, and resistance is at 102.00, 103.00 and 105.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1280, 1260, and 1220 November. Support is at 1280, 1260, and 1230 November, and resistance is at 1320, 1340, and 1360 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 01, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 314,876
: Positions :
: 31,386 71,921 80,204 118,706 129,254 63,013 21,531 293,309 302,910: 21,567 11,966
: Changes from: September 24, 2019 (Change in open interest: 692) :
: 169 -2,144 2,690 -577 504 -448 -404 1,834 646: -1,142 46
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.0 22.8 25.5 37.7 41.0 20.0 6.8 93.2 96.2: 6.8 3.8
: Total Traders: 437 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 135 112 135 122 104 43 23 375 311:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/01/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
157,529 91,438 57,302 19,446 10,059 2,054
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 58.0% 36.4% 12.3% 6.4% 1.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
158 54 43 16 6 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
5,289 54,415 12,733 4,516 1,917 12,226
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.4% 34.5% 8.1% 2.9% 1.2% 7.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
13 36 16 16 8 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
9,828 6,824
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.2% 4.3%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed higher for the week in New York and higher in London. It was an impressive rally in New York on ideas of Brazil production being diverted to energy needs and some ideas of crop problems there. There are also ideas that Indian production has been overestimated. World supplies still appear ample for the demand potential. Reports from India indicate that the country still has a large surplus of White Sugar that probably must be exported even if production is below expectations for this year. Brazil mills are refining mostly for ethanol right now as has been the case all season. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil is good enough and India has improved as the monsoon was late but brought ample rains in the end. The weather has been much more uneven in production areas from Russia into western Europe. Those areas had a very hot and dry start to the growing season. Better weather was seen in early August then it turned hot and dry again. These areas need more rain and some cooler weather to provide better conditions for the final development of the crops.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1360 December. Support is at 1260, 1250, and 1210 March, and resistance is at 1290, 1300, and 1320 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 352.00 and 359.00 December. Support is at 340.00, 337.00, and 335.00 December, and resistance is at 349.00, 355.00, and 359.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 01, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,036,927
: Positions :
: 119,891 283,167 206,843 359,992 400,998 267,945 79,740 954,671 970,749: 82,256 66,179
: Changes from: September 24, 2019 (Change in open interest: -82,798) :
: 8,273 -46,783 -19,738 -53,689 -4,031 -8,170 599 -73,324 -69,952: -9,474 -12,846
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.6 27.3 19.9 34.7 38.7 25.8 7.7 92.1 93.6: 7.9 6.4
: Total Traders: 263 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 61 71 90 76 64 37 20 227 197:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/01/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
100,686 43,088 52,783 14,300 1,932 2,008
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 42.8% 52.4% 14.2% 1.9% 2.0%

Number of Traders in Each Category
126 45 41 8 5 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================

Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
16,980 25,021 9,010 5,389 1,167 4,633
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
16.9% 24.9% 8.9% 5.4% 1.2% 4.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
20 20 11 9 6 12
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,277 4,132
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.2% 4.1%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower and trends are still up in both markets. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. The precipitation is a little less now so there are no real concerns about disease. Ideas are that the next crop will be good. There were reports last week that Ivory Coast is moving to regulate production with the aim of supporting higher prices to the market. How they plan to do this is not yet known, but both Ivory Coast and Ghana are doing what they can do boost Cocoa prices and maintain good earnings  for producers. Growing and harvesting conditions in Asia are also reported to be good. The harvest is ongoing amid somewhat drier weather. More and more Asian Cocoa has been staying at home and processed in Indonesia for export in the region. Demand in Asia has been growing and Indonesia has been eager to be the primary source of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.700 million bags. Ivory Coast arrivals were 34,740 tons last week, from 28,928 tons last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2580 and 2660 December. Support is at 2470, 2440, and 2430 December, with resistance at 2510, 2540, and 2570 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1970 and 2010 December. Support is at 1940, 1910, and 1890 December, with resistance at 1990, 2020, and 2050 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 01, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 343,822
: Positions :
: 42,968 39,708 90,912 135,456 179,288 59,689 21,632 329,025 331,540: 14,797 12,282
: Changes from: September 24, 2019 (Change in open interest: 15,256) :
: 9,652 -5,062 6,386 -3,083 12,030 3,382 3,067 16,336 16,420: -1,080 -1,164
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.5 11.5 26.4 39.4 52.1 17.4 6.3 95.7 96.4: 4.3 3.6
: Total Traders: 241 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 80 62 96 40 42 33 18 208 177:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/01/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
385,289 192,745 262,554 34,172 15,787 30,827
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 50.0% 68.1% 8.9% 4.1% 8.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
154 45 44 15 7 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
51,496 6,252 30,949 3,850 375 36,191
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
13.4% 1.6% 8.0% 1.0% 0.1% 9.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
39 9 15 13 8 25
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,058 2,353
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.3% 0.6%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322