About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. August Coffee, Cocoa Imports-Oct 4
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Aug 2019—- —-Jul 2019—-
-coffee kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 134,734,058 297,088,598 133,407,917 294,164,457
coffee, roasted 8,485,474 18,710,470 8,029,717 17,705,526
coffee, soluble
instant 4,231,869 9,331,271 5,032,660 11,097,015
-Cocoa-
cocoa beans 17,500,874 38,589,427 22,839,252 50,360,551
sweetened bars/block
10 lbs or over 2,207,768 4,868,128 2,563,868 5,653,329
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 8,974,785 19,789,401 9,119,532 20,108,568
cocoa paste,
not defatted 5,091,327 11,226,376 4,885,110 10,771,668
cocoa paste
defatted 4,243,026 9,355,872 4,602,287 10,148,043
cocoa powder,
unsweetened 9,464,139 20,868,426 9,631,603 21,237,685
cocoa powder,
sweetened 103,711 228,683 180,614 398,254
confectioners
coating 2,894,459 6,382,282 3,214,594 7,088,180
candy containing
chocolate 10,161,184 22,405,411 10,461,475 23,067,552

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher but closed closer to the lows after an impressive rally earlier in the day. There have not been many yield reports made public just yet, but variable yields should be expected due to uneven growing conditions in Cotton areas all year. Chinese companies can buy US pork and Soybeans but no mention has been made about US Cotton and no one else has been showing much interest in US Cotton as there is plenty of origins to choose from around the world. Demand otherwise remains bad. Production ideas remain elevated despite bad weather in the Texas Panhandle. The weather in Texas has shown a little improvement and this was reflected in the crop conditions this week. Producers in the Southeast are getting hot and there is no real rain in sight. Crop conditions showed deterioration in the region. Harvest is will increase in the next couple of weeks, so there are not many reasons to look for much upside in prices for a while.
Overnight News: The Delta should see dry weather except for showers on Sunday and Southeast should see scattered showers this weekend. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Texas will have scattered showers through this weekend, then dry conditions next week. Temperatures will be mostly above normal. The USDA average price is now 58.74 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 11,138 bales, from 11,306 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 13 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 6190, 6290, and 6590 December. Support is at 6070, 6010, and 5970 December, with resistance of 6290, 6340, and 6400 December.

DJ U.S. August Cotton Exports-Oct 4
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Aug 19 Jul 19 Jun 19 Aug 18(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 15,401,672 21,551,203 17,357,998 10,403,858
1 to 1 1/8 inch 72,957,500 113,187,977 120,195,381 72,848,323
upland 1 1/8 and over 131,233,969 169,366,064 219,886,371 88,915,793
Amer Pima, over 1 1/8 inc 5,597,167 7,351,582 9,816,533 5,184,955
All cotton 225,190,308 311,456,826 367,256,283 177,352,929
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Aug 19 Jul 19 Jun 19 Aug 18(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 70,739 98,984 79,725 47,785
1 to 1 1/8 inch 335,091 519,868 552,053 334,590
upland 1 1/8 and over 602,753 777,892 1,009,930 408,387
Amer Pima, over 1 1/8 inc 25,708 33,766 45,087 23,814
All cotton 1,034,291 1,430,510 1,686,794 814,575

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher once again and it looks like chart trends are trying to turn up again. There are no real threats to Florida from tropical storms or hurricanes and there do not seem to be any threats forming in the ocean at this time. It is past the high point in the hurricane season and the focus on the market will change to the harvest and demand potential. Chart patterns are mixed in response to the lack of hurricane threats. The weather in Florida had been good as the state has seen frequent showers and storms that have aided in development in the fruit. Inventories in Florida are still well above a year ago. Fruit for the next crop is developing and the harvest will be starting soon. Crop conditions are called good.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry weather this week and scattered showers this weekend and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 96.00, 95.00, and 92.00 September, with resistance at 102.00, 105.00, and 106.00 September.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Oct 3
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 9/28/2019 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
9/28/2019 9/29/2018 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 315.44 241.32 30.7%
Retail/Institutional 6.12 5.84 4.8%
Total 321.56 247.16 30.1%
Pack
Bulk 0.33 0.72 -53.7%
Retail/Institutional 0.97 1.27 -23.4%
Total Pack 1.30 1.98 -34.3%
Reprocessed -1.30 -1.98 -34.3%
Pack from Fruit 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.71 -0.37 91.9%
Imports – Foreign 1.91 2.95 -35.3%
Domestic Receipts 0.10 0.00 NA
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.00 -100.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.02 0.01 278.9%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 315.78 242.64 30.1%
Retail/Institutional 7.09 7.10 -0.2%
Total 322.87 249.75 29.3%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 3.54 4.85 -27.0%
Exports 0.29 0.58 -49.9%
Total (Bulk) 3.83 5.43 -29.4%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.27 1.36 -6.9%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.27 1.36 -6.9%
Total Movement 5.10 6.79 -24.9%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 311.95 237.21 31.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.82 5.92 -1.6%
Ending Inventory 317.77 243.13 30.7%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
28-Sep-19 29-Sep-18 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 237.21 185.02 28.2%
Retail/Institutional 5.92 7.20 -17.8%
Total 243.13 192.21 26.5%
Pack
Bulk 147.05 94.75 55.2%
Retail/Institutional 65.31 64.94 0.6%
Total Pack 212.35 159.69 33.0%
Reprocessed -125.06 -118.59 5.5%
Pack from Fruit 87.29 41.10 112.4%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.59 0.12 391.5%
Imports – Foreign 283.57 301.79 -6.0%
Domestic Receipts 10.96 8.36 31.1%
Receipts of Florida Produ 0.07 0.52 -87.2%
from Non-Reporting Entit 5.84 1.88 210.2%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 3.37 0.62 445.1%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 563.59 474.47 18.8%
Retail/Institutional 71.22 72.13 -1.3%
Total 634.81 546.61 16.1%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 232.11 221.11 5.0%
Domestic 19.53 16.15 21.0%
Exports 251.64 237.26 6.1%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 65.40 66.39 -1.5%
Exports 0.00 0.00 -100.0%
Total (Retail/Inst) 65.40 66.39 -1.5%
Total Movement 317.04 303.65 4.4%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 311.95 237.21 31.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.82 5.92 -1.6%
Ending Inventory 317.77 243.13 30.7%

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed slightly lower with funds the best buyers in New York. Certified stocks keep dropping in New York, implying that the best value for Arabica is right there in the city. The Brazil Arabica growing areas are waiting for rains to restart flowering after some rains earlier in the year. Rains are forecast to start again this weekend and there have been some reports of showers in some areas. The rains are not expected to be enough to support crops for more than the short-term. Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year. It has been warm and dry at times, then the growing areas have seen some very heavy rains. The harvest there will be underway soon.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.263 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 99.02 ct/lb. Brazil will get dry weather today and tomorrow and showers over the weekend with above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers or dry weather.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 99.00, 98.00, and 97.00 December, and resistance is at 103.00, 105.00 and 106.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1290, 1280, and 1260 November, and resistance is at 1320, 1340, and 1360 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower yesterday in both markets after holding resistance areas on the charts. It looks like buyers ran out of steam and were forced to liquidate when prices did not hold. Worries about lost demand hurt the price action yesterday but it seemed that most of the selling was chart based. Support is primarily coming from questions about production in India, Russia, and Europe. Australia and parts of Brazil have also been dry. The US government is looking for ways to increase biofuels consumption in the US after granting the refinery waivers. It has found a way to partially restore the lost demand by increasing the use of E-85 but most oil companies are fighting this new initiative. It also could change the waivers slightly and appears to be doing that. It is still dry in Brazil but some improved rains have been reported. Other Sugar production areas such as India and Thailand have good weather in recent weeks. Europe and Russia should have suffered yield losses due to a hot and dry Summer in both areas. Australia remains hot and dry in Queensland and this is good for harvesting but not good for the next crop.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather today and tomorrow and scattered showers this weekend. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1360 December. Support is at 1260, 1250, and 1210 March, and resistance is at 1290, 1300, and 1320 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 340.00, 337.00, and 335.00 December, and resistance is at 347.00, 349.00, and 355.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher in both London and New York. Both markets made new highs for the move and should be able to extend the up move into next week. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers, but there are reports of disease in Ghana. There is also talk that the governments in Ivory Coast and Ghana are trying to force buyers to pay more to help support minimum pricing schemes that the governments have enacted. These efforts are reported to be at least partially successful as they control a huge part of the market. Ideas are that the moves are the main reason futures have rallied as much as they have in the last several weeks. Growing and harvesting conditions in Asia are also reported to be good. The harvest is ongoing amid somewhat drier weather.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.712 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2580 and 2660 December. Support is at 2480, 2470, and 2440 December, with resistance at 2540, 2570, and 2600 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1970 and 2010 December. Support is at 1940, 1910, and 1890 December, with resistance at 1990, 2020, and 2050 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322