About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. August Grain Imports-Oct 4
In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.
—-Aug 2019—- —-Jul 2019—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
durum wheat 159,051 350,707 176,702 389,628
spring wheat 6,750,538 14,884,936 7,303,009 16,103,135
winter wheat 811,678 1,789,750 288,796 636,795
wheat/meslin 54,138,313 119,374,980 12,477,540 27,512,976
TOTAL WHEAT 61,859,580 136,400,374 20,246,047 44,642,534
barley 7,084,699 15,621,761 8,568,182 18,892,841
oats 335,575 739,943 2,180,103 4,807,127
corn 69,226,475 152,644,377 21,988,343 48,484,296
other corn 4,073,436 8,981,926 3,880,542 8,556,595
TOTAL CORN 73,299,911 161,626,304 25,868,885 57,040,891

DJ U.S. Aug Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-Oct 4
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Aug 2019—- —-Jul 2019—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 37,563,188 82,826,830 45,682,990 100,730,993
palm kernel oil 26,549,569 58,541,800 43,478,535 95,870,170
palm oil 118,299,091 260,849,496 147,480,219 325,193,883
soybean 28,188,393 62,155,407 33,963,133 74,888,708
soy meal 0 0 0 0
soy oil 14,984,410 33,040,624 16,570,494 36,537,939
rapeseed oil
edible 162,379,582 358,046,978 177,092,211 390,488,325
rapeseed oil,
inedible 0 0 35,335 77,914

DJ U.S. August Grain Exports-Oct 4
In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Aug 19 Jul 19 Jun 19 Aug 18(*)
Barley 3,755,000 5,650,340 4,244,000 2,763,043
Corn /1 2,825,045,000 2,882,194,000 3,068,898,000 5,842,643,000
Sorghum 312,340,000 160,368,000 316,164,000 226,811,000
Oats 1,437,887 2,042,983 3,974,738 1,823,625
Rye 1,220,900 151,100 511,222 1,162,313
Wheat /1 2,571,064,128 1,943,232,013 2,156,254,975 2,101,182,268
wheat flour /1 25,214,831 23,524,471 20,788,616 21,467,447
Malt 29,265,120 29,026,195 33,663,862 35,335,052
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
Aug 19 Jul 19 Jun 19 Aug 18(*)
Barley 172,464 259,515 194,923 126,904
Corn /1 111,215,968 113,465,801 120,815,938 230,012,334
Sorghum 12,296,156 6,313,344 12,446,699 8,929,063
Oats 99,061 140,749 273,835 125,636
Rye 48,064 5,948 20,126 45,758
Wheat /1 94,469,465 71,400,821 79,227,995 77,204,440
wheat flour /1 555,892 518,626 458,311 473,276
Malt 64,518,557 63,991,817 74,216,124 77,900,468
1/Includes commercial and donated.

DJ U.S. August Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Oct 4
In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Aug 19 Jul 19 Jun 19 Aug 18(*)
soybeans 4,931,169,572 3,680,451,200 3,193,552,152 3,367,527,883
soy oil 75,108,975 79,071,812 43,269,288 89,673,336
crude 62,810,085 68,326,636 33,517,763 73,253,711
refined 176,713 60,647 113,445 73,925
other/1 11,902,338 10,413,526 9,280,684 16,137,264
hydrogenated 219,839 271,003 357,396 208,436
cottonseed oil 1,474,727 1,411,674 4,018,852 3,819,713
crude 105,728 0 0 87,049
refined 336,228 671,731 3,268,241 2,360,635
other/1 1,032,771 739,943 750,611 1,372,029
hydrogenated 0 0 0 0
sunseeds 105,088 3,559,356 2,284,841 38,277
sunseed oil 4,629,145 3,923,345 8,687,316 3,441,586
rapeseed 12,157,364 13,022,019 24,595,212 6,563,123
rapeseed oil 9,518,519 8,296,136 8,889,462 9,064,682
crude 3,935,316 3,457,492 3,959,998 3,272,496
refined 5,583,203 4,838,644 4,929,464 5,792,186
linseed meal 96,500 0 66,719 215,791
cottonseed meal 11,125,597 7,131,502 4,744,546 9,458,402
soymeal 806,359,325 716,627,482 593,573,569 990,184,003
soymeal/flour 124,273,876 85,008,540 220,250,941 214,745,193
soymeal hulls 9,154,000 22,254,000 9,082,000 14,756,000
lard 1,717,399 1,587,791 5,566,310 1,082,163
edible tallow 9,632,277 9,228,080 9,760,551 8,790,897
inedible tallow 19,136,835 22,259,805 23,033,985 17,909,439
ch white grease 49,544 0 499,113 0
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
Aug 19 Jul 19 Jun 19 Aug 18(*)
soybeans 181,187,606 135,232,044 117,341,750 123,734,198
soy oil 165,586,974 174,323,535 95,392,468 197,695,899
crude 138,472,558 150,634,473 73,894,031 161,496,816
refined 389,586 133,704 250,103 162,977
other/1 26,240,168 22,957,899 20,460,409 35,576,583
hydrogenated 484,662 597,459 787,923 459,523
cottonseed oil 3,251,217 3,112,209 8,860,054 8,421,027
crude 233,090 0 0 191,910
refined 741,256 1,480,914 7,205,239 5,204,310
other/1 2,276,871 1,631,295 1,654,814 3,024,807
hydrogenated 0 0 0 0
sunseeds 231,679 7,847,038 5,037,213 84,386
sunseed oil 10,205,520 8,649,497 19,152,257 7,587,400
rapeseed 26,802,404 28,708,643 54,223,170 14,469,212
rapeseed oil 20,984,746 18,289,852 19,597,912 19,984,206
crude 8,675,888 7,622,466 8,730,303 7,214,620
refined 12,308,858 10,667,386 10,867,610 12,769,586
linseed meal 106 0 74 238
cottonseed meal 12,264 7,861 5,230 10,426
soymeal 888,850 789,938 654,296 1,091,480
soymeal flour/me 136,987 93,705 242,783 236,714
soymeal hulls 10,090 24,531 10,011 16,266
lard 3,786,217 3,500,481 12,271,615 2,385,761
edible tallow 21,235,539 20,344,437 21,518,335 19,380,614
inedible tallow 42,189,507 49,074,478 50,781,253 39,483,561
ch white grease 109,226 0 1,100,356 0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 4
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct. 07, 2019 185 Oct 02, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL October Oct. 07, 2019 64 Sep 27, 2019
ETHANOL October Oct. 07, 2019 46 Oct 03, 2019

UPDATE 2-Trump administration promises biofuel boost to hard-hit farmers – Reuters News
04-Oct-2019 09:09:26 AM
Recasts with EPA announcement, details and quotes
By Humeyra Pamuk and Stephanie Kelly
WASHINGTON/NEW YORK, Oct 4 (Reuters) – The Trump administration on Friday unveiled a plan to boost U.S. biofuels consumption starting next year to help struggling farmers, a move that cheered the agriculture industry but was likely to trigger a backlash from Big Oil.
The plan would require a yet unspecified increase in the amount of ethanol that oil refiners must add to their fuel in 2020, and would also aim to remove further barriers to the sale of higher ethanol blends of gasoline like E15, the Environmental Protection Agency said in a statement.
“Today’s agreement is the latest in a series of steps we have taken to expand domestic energy production and improve the Renewable Fuel Standard program that will result in sustained biofuel production to help American farmers,” EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler said.
The rules, which will be finalized after a period of public comment, would “ensure that more than 15 billion gallons of conventional ethanol be blended into the nation’s fuel supply beginning in 2020,” the EPA said. It did not give an exact number. Any changes to blending volumes mandates for 2020 must be finalized by Nov. 30.
Before Friday’s proposal, the EPA had called for the refining industry to add 20.04 billion gallons of biofuels, including 15 billion gallons of ethanol, into their fuel in 2020.
The Trump administration had already provided a boost to E15 earlier this year, by lifting Obama-era seasonal restrictions that had banned its sale during summer months.
President Donald Trump in August had promised farmers a “giant package” related to ethanol after his administration angered the powerful corn lobby by exempting 31 oil refineries from their obligations under the RFS, freeing them from a requirement to blend corn-based ethanol into their fuel or buy credits from those who do.
Biofuel companies, farmers and Midwest lawmakers had slammed Trump’s EPA for the waivers, arguing they undercut demand for corn already slumping due to the U.S. trade war with China.
“The president listened to all points of view and delivered. Small refineries can still apply for waivers while biofuels are able to blend the legally required amount,” Republican Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa, a powerful advocate for corn country, said in a statement.
“It’s been a long process, but when the chips were down, President Trump delivered for farm families and biofuel producers,” said Emily Skor, CEO of the Growth Energy biofuel trade association.
The plan came after weeks of meetings between White House officials and oil and biofuel industry representatives. It did not include the oil refining sector’s top wish: a cap on the price of biofuel blending credits.
The oil and refining industries have resisted measures to expand the biofuels market, which it views as a competitor, and has vehemently complained that the requirements under the RFS cost them a fortune.
Officials for the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers and American Petroleum Institute lobby groups did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The oil and corn industries have long clashed over the RFS. The regulation has helped corn farmers by creating a 15 billion-gallon per year market for ethanol but has irked refining companies that say complying can cost them hundreds of millions of dollars.
Trump waded into the issue early in his presidency after representatives of the refining industry complained about the high costs of compliance, seeking to tap into his administration’s support for rolling back regulation.
Trump’s EPA has since vastly expanded its use of a provision of the RFS allowing small refining facilities to seek waivers if they can prove compliance would cause them disproportionate financial hardship.
Reuters has reported that small facilities owned by giants like Exxon Mobil XOM.N and Chevron Corp CVX.N have been among the facilities securing recent exemptions.
(Writing by Richard Valdmanis; Editing by Tom Brown, Steve Orlofsky and David Gregorio)
(( richard.valdmanis@thomsonreuters.com ; +1 617 312 6022; Reuters Messaging: richard.valdmanis.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net ))
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2019. Click For Restrictions – https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html
Keywords: USA-BIOFUELS/ (UPDATE 2)

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed on stable world prices and on uninspiring demand. Egypt bought some French Wheat but not that much. News that China bought 130,000 tons of US White Wheat reflected the poor growing conditions in Australia. There has not been much else in the way of demand news for the past week. Canada remains cold and there are reports of yield and quality losses. However, there is Wheat available around the world and world cash markets appear stable. The Canadian harvest remains behind the normal pace. The mountains got the most snow but many areas are seeing season ending freezes as well as lesser amounts of snow to make the harvest that much more difficult. Most crops should be mature and will not get very hurt from the freeze. Harvest is underway in Canada with most progress made in Saskatchewan and very little progress reported in Manitoba and Alberta. Planting of the next Winter Wheat crop is making good progress under mostly good conditions in the central Great Plains and Midwest. World price quotes are called steady,
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or light showers. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see scattered showers off and on through the weekend. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal. China bought 130,000 tons of White Wheat from the US.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 502, 506, and 522 December. Support is at 485, 481, and 478 December, with resistance at 501, 506, and 512 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 399, 397, and 395 December, with resistance at 410, 414, and 420 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 516 December. Support is at 522, 518, and 515 December, and resistance is at 537, 546, and 550 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was little changed after the recent fall in prices. The weekly export sales report showed moderate demand even though prices had rallied. A lot of the sales went to Japan so thee Rice sold will not be long grain. Traders are starting to look ahead to the next round of USDA reports and expect lower production. There has been a little less rain, but the production is still thought to be overestimated by USDA due to reduced area and yields from all of the bad weather earlier in the year. Harvest is moving along at roughly a normal pace but the trade still expects greatly reduced long grain production this year. The main harvest is still very active in Mississippi and Arkansas and is increasing in California. Yield reports are generally average to mostly below average but quality reports remain good and have improved as the harvest moves north. Producers to the north have seen some bad growing conditions this year and even early planted fields in the best condition are reporting lower yields. Futures are now at the lower end of a trading range.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions this week except for some showers on Thursday. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1147 and 1111 November. Support is at 1155, 1143, and 1126 November, with resistance at 1187, 1200, and 1205 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed slightly higher after a choppy session. The weekly export sales report was not strong and the market needs to find more demand. However, the focus is now on harvest conditions and the production and supply and demand reports to be released next week. Traders are worried about less demand and expect to see less supply from USDA in its updates next week. It is an open question on how much USDA can change production estimates as there has been very little harvest activity to date. Demand could drop as the export pace has been very slow to start the new marketing year.. The stocks estimate still shows plenty of supplies for the demand potential, but the US will need a good crop to maintain the supplies. The charts suggest that more short covering will be needed before the current rally can run out of steam. Producers will get a chance to sell old and new crop Corn at improved prices in the short-term. Demand remains a problem as export sales have been very weak and ethanol demand is fading. Producers should monitor the price action and local basis levels with the idea of starting or increasing sales. The harvest is continuing and yield reports in general are not strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 397 December. Support is at 385, 381, and 377 December, and resistance is at 392, 393, and 397 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 290 and 307 December. Support is at 285, 284, and 279 December, and resistance is at 291, 293, and 299 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower in correction trading. Soybean Oil moved higher and trends turned up in this market. The weekly export sales report featured large sales to China but this was already part of the market as the announcements had been made in the daily system. Ideas are that the country can buy more and another sale was announced in the daily system yesterday. China is allowing its importers to buy a significant amount of Soybeans at this time with no punitive tariffs. The country is on holiday this week to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the Peoples Republic. The harvest is not far away and yield reports will be monitored as harvesters start to roll. Soybeans are turning color and some are dropping leaves in almost all areas of the Midwest now. Initial harvest results suggest that USDA might be too high with its current production estimates. A smaller crop will not mean a big change in pricing and a big rally if the US is not selling and it needs to get a trade deal with China.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 925, 927, and 935 November. Support is at 905, 899, and 893 November, and resistance is at 920, 924, and 936 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 310.00 and 324.00 December. Support is at 302.00, 297.00, and 296.00 December, and resistance is at 306.00, 309.00, and 311.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 2990 and 3050 December. Support is at 2950, 2930, and 2920 December, with resistance at 2990, 3040, and 3050 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on slow harvest progress and fund buying. Support also came from the rally in Chicago Soybean Oil. Snow was reported in western areas over the weekend but dry conditions are expected through the end of the week. Reports indicate that the harvest is only about one-third complete. Palm Oil was a little higher on stronger outside markets and nothing new in the newswires. Vegetable oils and Crude Oil are firm today. The charts show that futures have rejected a new move lower and are back inside the bottoming range. Higher competing vegetable oils could spark a rally in Palm Oil later this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 465.00 and 476.00 November. Support is at 455.00, 451.00, and 450.00 November, with resistance at 463.00, 468.00, and 470.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2130, 2120, and 2100 December, with resistance at 2180, 2200, and 2220 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers possible this weekend. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September +27 Dec +160 Dec +70 Sep +19 Nov +12 Oct N/A
October +34 Dec +70 Dec +22 Nov
November +41 Dec +80 Dec +33 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 3
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Oct. 3 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Thursday, Oct. 3.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 433.70 -22.00 Nov 2019 up 3.50
Track Thunder Bay 469.20 10.00 Nov 2019 up 1.50
Track Vancouver 479.20 20.00 Nov 2019 up 3.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 4
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 522.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 525.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 535.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 555.00 +02.60 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 525.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 527.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 537.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 557.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 525.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 430.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 2,110.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 140.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1830)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322