Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher once again. There has not been many yield reports made public just yet, but variable yields should be expected due to uneven growing conditions in Cotton areas all year. Chinese companies can buy US pork and Soybeans but no mention has been made about US Cotton and no one else has been showing much interest in US Cotton as there is plenty of origins to choose from around the world. Demand otherwise remains bad. Production ideas remain elevated despite bad weather in the Texas Panhandle. The weather in Texas has shown a little improvement and this was reflected in the crop conditions this week. Producers in the Southeast are getting hot and there is no real rain in sight. Crop conditions showed deterioration in the region. Harvest is will increase in the next couple of weeks, so there are not many reasons to look for much upside in prices for a while.
Overnight News: The Delta should see dry weather except for showers on Thursday and Sunday and Southeast should see dry conditions this week and scattered showers this weekend. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Texas will have scattered showers through this weekend. Temperatures will be mostly above normal. The USDA average price is now 58.47 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 11,138 bales, from 11,306 bales yesterday. ICE said that 1 notice was posted for delivery against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 13 contracts. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 177,800 bales this year and 7,500 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 3,800 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6010, 5970, and 5910 December, with resistance of 6160, 6210, and 6290 December.
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher in quiet trading. There are no real threats to Florida from tropical storms or hurricanes and there do not seem to be any threats forming in the ocean at this time. It is past the high point in the hurricane season and the focus on the market will change to the harvest and demand potential. Chart patterns are mixed in response to the lack of hurricane threats. The weather in Florida had been good as the state has seen frequent showers and storms that have aided in development in the fruit. Inventories in Florida are still well above a year ago. Fruit for the next crop is developing and the harvest will be starting soon. Crop conditions are called good.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions this week with chances for showers this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry weather this week and scattered showers this weekend and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 94.00 November. Support is at 96.00, 95.00, and 92.00 September, with resistance at 102.00, 105.00, and 106.00 September.
General Comments: New York closed slightly higher and London closed slightly lower for the third day in a row. The Brazil Arabica growing areas are waiting for rains to restart flowering after some rains earlier in the year. Rains are forecast to start again this weekend and there have been some reports of showers in some areas. The rains are not expected to be enough to support crops for more than the short-term. Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year. It has been warm and dry at times, then the growing areas have seen some very heavy rains. The harvest there will be underway soon. Demand has been increasing over the last few years on the consumer level, but production potential is growing faster. The weaker production due to adverse weather in Brazil this year should help to hold prices from going much lower
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.267 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 99.02 ct/lb. Brazil will get dry weather this week showers over the weekend with above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers or dry weather.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 99.00, 98.00, and 97.00 December, and resistance is at 102.00, 105.00 and 106.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1290, 1280, and 1260 November, and resistance is at 1320, 1340, and 1360 November.
General Comments: Futures closed slightly higher again yesterday in New York as traders think the supply side news is getting more bullish. London was a little lower. Support is primarily coming from questions about production in India, Russia, and Europe. Australia and parts of Brazil have also been dry. The US government is looking for ways to increase biofuels consumption in the US after granting the refinery waivers. It has found a way to partially restore the lost demand by increasing the use of E-85 but most oil companies are fighting this new initiative. It also could change the waivers slightly and appears to be doing that. It is still dry in Brazil but some improved rains have been reported. Other Sugar production areas such as India and Thailand have good weather in recent weeks. Europe and Russia should have suffered yield losses due to a hot and dry Summer in both areas. Australia remains hot and dry in Queensland and this is good for harvesting but not good for the next crop.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather this week and scattered showers this weekend. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1360 December. Support is at 1260, 1250, and 1210 March, and resistance is at 1300, 1320, and 1330 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 340.00, 337.00, and 335.00 December, and resistance is at 347.00, 349.00, and 355.00 December.
General Comments: Futures closed higher in both London and New York. Both markets are still in a trading range but are holding support and act strong. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers, but there are reports of disease in Ghana. There is also talk that the governments in Ivory Coast and Ghana are trying to force buyers to pay more to help support minimum pricing schemes that the governments have enacted. These efforts are reported to be at least partially successful as they control a huge part of the market. Ideas are that the moves are the main reason futures have rallied as much as they have in the last several weeks. Growing and harvesting conditions in Asia are also reported to be good. The harvest is ongoing amid somewhat drier weather.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.720 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2470, 2430, and 2400 December, with resistance at 2500, 2510, and 2520 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1970 December. Support is at 1910, 1890, and 1870 December, with resistance at 1950, 1960, and 1990 December.