About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 3
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct. 04, 2019 170 Oct 01, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL October Oct. 04, 2019 64 Sep 26, 2019

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Oct 3
For the week ended Sep 26, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 328.5 0.0 12904.5 11280.4 4465.8 8.9
hrw 127.1 0.0 4880.0 3292.1 1247.1 0.0
srw 74.0 0.0 1672.8 1411.5 633.1 4.2
hrs 126.8 0.0 3552.9 3391.0 1437.6 4.8
white 64.3 0.0 2354.2 2895.2 940.0 0.0
durum -63.8 0.0 444.6 290.6 208.0 0.0
corn 562.6 2.5 9711.5 19699.0 8104.7 127.4
soybeans 2076.1 0.0 14294.9 20109.0 11305.2 0.0
soymeal 21.5 136.8 12243.1 12799.7 895.9 2295.8
soyoil 2.5 0.0 925.9 1081.8 126.6 68.9
upland cotton 177.8 7.5 8740.3 9025.2 6984.2 701.4
pima cotton 3.8 0.0 188.4 277.9 123.4 0.0
sorghum -0.4 0.0 135.2 86.0 92.3 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 57.5 55.7 41.9 0.0
rice 41.6 0.0 1234.4 821.2 698.2 0.0

General Comments: Wheat markets were lower in correction trading. Egypt bought some French Wheat but not that much. There has not been much else in the way of demand news for the past week. Canada remains cold and there are reports of yield and quality losses. However, there is Wheat available around the world and world cash markets appear stable. The Canadian harvest remains behind the normal pace. The mountains got the most snow but many areas are seeing season ending freezes as well as lesser amounts of snow to make the harvest that much more difficult. Most crops should be mature and will not get very hurt from the freeze. Harvest is underway in Canada with most progress made in Saskatchewan and very little progress reported in Manitoba and Alberta. Planting of the next Winter Wheat crop is making good progress under mostly good conditions in the central Great Plains and Midwest. World price quotes are called steady,
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or light showers. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see scattered showers off and on through the weekend. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal. China bought 130,000 tons of White Wheat from the US.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 502, 506, and 522 December. Support is at 485, 481, and 478 December, with resistance at 501, 506, and 512 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 402, 399, and 397 December, with resistance at 414, 420, and 425 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 516 December. Support is at 522, 518, and 515 December, and resistance is at 537, 546, and 550 December.

General Comments: Rice was lower but sellers seemed to run out of steam after the opening. Traders are starting to look ahead to the nest round of USDA reports and expect lower production. There has been a little less rain, but the production is still thought to be overestimated by USDA due to reduced area and yields from all of the bad weather earlier in the year. Harvest is moving along at roughly a normal pace but the trade still expects greatly reduced long grain production this year. The main harvest is still very active in Mississippi and Arkansas and is increasing in California. Yield reports are generally average to mostly below average. Producers to the north have seen some bad growing conditions this year and even early planted fields in the best condition are reporting lower yields. Futures are now at the lower end of a trading range.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions this week except for some showers on Thursday. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1147 and 1111 November. Support is at 1155, 1143, and 1126 November, with resistance at 1187, 1200, and 1205 November.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Oct 2
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 14.40 9.19 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.06 9.42 0.00
Brokens 8.69 —- —-

General Comments: Corn closed lower after filling a gap on the daily charts. Traders are worried about less demand and expect to see less supply from USDA in its updates next week. It is an open question on how much USDA can change production estimates as there has been very little harvest activity to date. Demand could drop as the export pace has been very slow to start the new marketing year.. The stocks estimate still shows plenty of supplies for the demand potential, but the US will need a good crop to maintain the supplies. The charts suggest that more short covering will be needed before the current rally can run out of steam. Producers will get a chance to sell old and new crop Corn at improved prices in the short-term. Demand remains a problem as export sales have been very weak and ethanol demand is fading. Producers should monitor the price action and local basis levels with the idea of starting or increasing sales. The harvest is continuing and yield reports in general are not strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 397 December. Support is at 385, 381, and 377 December, and resistance is at 392, 393, and 397 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 288, 290, and 307 December. Support is at 279, 278, and 275 December, and resistance is at 284, 285, and 286 December.

General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower in correction trading. Soybean Oil moved higher. Producers of Soybeans have a chance to increase or start sales on this rally as it looks like USDA overestimated US production last year However, competition for business will be strong in the world market so the upside might not be super high. USDA confirmed a sale of Soybeans to China but more announcements might have to wait now due to the Chinese celebrations. China is allowing its importers to buy a significant amount of Soybeans at this time with no punitive tariffs. The country is on holiday this week to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the Peoples Republic. The harvest is not far away and yield reports will be monitored as harvesters start to roll. Soybeans are turning color and some are dropping leaves in almost all areas of the Midwest now. Initial harvest results suggest that USDA might be too high with its current production estimates. A smaller crop will not mean a big change in pricing and a big rally if the US is not selling and it needs to get a trade deal with China.
Overnight News: China bought 252,000 tons of Soybeans from the US.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 925, 927, and 935 November. Support is at 909, 905, and 899 November, and resistance is at 920, 924, and 936 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 310.00 and 324.00 December. Support is at 304.00, 302.00, and 297.00 December, and resistance is at 309.00, 311.00, and 312.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2880, 2860, and 2850 December, with resistance at 2930, 2940, and 2950 December.

General Comments: Canola was a little higher on slow harvest progress and fund buying. Snow was reported in western areas over the weekend but dry conditions are expected through the end of the week. Reports indicate that the harvest is only about one-third complete. Palm Oil was a little lower on weaker outside markets and nothing new in the newswires. Vegetable oils and Crude Oil are soft today. Exports remain disappointing for this month. The charts show that futures have rejected a new move lower and are back inside the bottoming range. Higher competing vegetable oils could spark a rally in Palm Oil later this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 450.00, 448.00, and 445.00 November, with resistance at 456.00, 457.00, and 460.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2130, 2120, and 2100 December, with resistance at 2180, 2200, and 2220 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers possible today and this weekend. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September +27 Dec +160 Dec +70 Sep +19 Nov +12 Oct N/A
October +34 Dec +70 Dec +22 Nov
November +41 Dec +80 Dec +33 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 2
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Oct. 2 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Wednesday, Oct. 2.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 430.20 -20.00 Nov 2019 up 0.90
Track Thunder Bay 467.70 10.00 Nov 2019 up 5.50
Track Vancouver 475.70 20.00 Nov 2019 up 3.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 3
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 520.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 522.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 530.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 552.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 522.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 525.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 532.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 555.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 522.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 430.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 2,100.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 139.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322