About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher in response to news that the US-China trade talks were continuing and would start again as scheduled next month. The market had sold off on Friday in response to Trump Tweets stating he would only accept a compete deal not a deal coming in parts. Demand otherwise remains bad. World demand has been weak in part due to the US-China tensions and fears of a recession or at least a global economic slowdown are keeping buyers away. World prices are weak. Production ideas remain elevated despite bad weather in the Texas Panhandle. It remains generally hot and dry there. Producers in the Southeast have dodged some bullets in the past few weeks as tropical storms and hurricanes have stayed away. Now it is hot and there is no real rain in sight. Harvest is underway now and will increase in the next couple of weeks, so there are not many reasons to look for much upside in prices for a while.
Overnight News: The Delta should see showers today and tomorrow then dry weather and Southeast should see dry conditions. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Texas will have dry conditions until some showers appear this weekend. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 58.34 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 10,933 bales, from 11,185 bales yesterday. ICE said that notices were posted for delivery against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6020, 5980, and 5910 December, with resistance of 6160, 6210, and 6290 December.

Crop Progress
Date 15-Sep 8-Sep 2018 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 64 54 57 57
Cotton Harvested 11 9 16 11
Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 3 16 42 32 7
Cotton Last Week 3 14 42 34 7
Cotton Last Year 7 22 32 29 10

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was unchanged. Traders were keeping a close eye on tropical systems that could hit Florida. The state has been lucky this year as the storms have curved away from the state and moved into the US farther north or remained out at sea. It is just past the high point in the hurricane season and forecasters are still keeping close eyes on the Atlantic. There are currently three tropical systems of interest but none are likely to hit the state. Chart patterns are mixed in response to the hurricane threats and the potential for more systems to form in the short-term. The weather in Florida had been good as the state has seen frequent showers and storms that have aided in development in the fruit. Inventories in Florida are still well above a year ago. Fruit for the next crop is developing and the harvest will be starting soon. Crop conditions are called good.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions this week with chances for showers on Thursday. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers tomorrow and this weekend and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September FCOJ contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts. USDA said that FCOJ in Cold Storage now totals 807.895 million pounds, from 822.305 million in July and 633.390 million last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 98.00 and 94.00 November. Support is at 98.00, 97.00, and 95.00 September, with resistance at 102.00, 103.00, and 105.00 September.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
9/14/2019 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
9/14/2019 9/15/2018 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 310.52 246.69 25.9%
Retail/Institutional 5.92 6.29 -5.9%
Total 316.44 252.98 25.1%
Pack
Bulk 0.19 1.03 -81.6%
Retail/Institutional 2.63 1.12 135.7%
Total Pack 2.82 2.14 31.6%
Reprocessed -2.82 -2.14 31.6%
Pack from Fruit 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 1.03 -0.10 899.8%
Imports – Foreign 8.14 6.03 34.9%
Domestic Receipts 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 1.18 0.00 NA
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.01 0.00 NA
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 318.24 251.50 26.5%
Retail/Institutional 8.55 7.41 15.4%
Total 326.80 258.91 26.2%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 3.39 3.96 -14.4%
Exports 0.23 0.23 -3.0%
Total (Bulk) 3.62 4.20 -13.8%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 2.43 1.25 93.8%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 2.43 1.25 93.8%
Total Movement 6.05 5.45 11.0%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 314.62 247.30 27.2%
Retail/Institutional 6.13 6.16 -0.5%
Ending Inventory 320.75 253.46 26.5%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
14-Sep-19 15-Sep-18 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 237.21 185.02 28.2%
Retail/Institutional 5.92 7.20 -17.8%
Total 243.13 192.21 26.5%
Pack
Bulk 145.09 93.49 55.2%
Retail/Institutional 62.21 62.65 -0.7%
Total Pack 207.30 156.14 32.8%
Reprocessed -120.01 -115.04 4.3%
Pack from Fruit 87.29 41.10 112.4%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.25 0.71 -64.2%
Imports – Foreign 277.33 298.70 -7.2%
Domestic Receipts 10.37 8.36 24.1%
Receipts of Florida Produ 0.07 0.52 -87.2%
from Non-Reporting Entit 4.87 1.75 178.8%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 3.34 0.61 446.2%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 558.01 474.11 17.7%
Retail/Institutional 68.12 69.85 -2.5%
Total 626.14 543.95 15.1%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 224.55 211.45 6.2%
Domestic 18.85 15.36 22.7%
Exports 243.39 226.81 7.3%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 62.00 63.69 -2.7%
Exports 0.00 0.00 -100.0%
Total (Retail/Inst) 62.00 63.69 -2.7%
Total Movement 305.39 290.50 5.1%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 314.62 247.30 27.2%
Retail/Institutional 6.13 6.16 -0.5%
Ending Inventory 320.75 253.46 26.5%

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed a little higher as futures held support in both markets. Funds and other speculators appeared to be the best buyers although the cash market seems to be seeing increasing activity as well. The Arabica growing areas are waiting for rains to restart flowering after some rains earlier in the year. Rains are forecast to start in the very near future. Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year. It has been warm and dry at times, then the growing areas have seen some very heavy rains. The harvest there will be underway soon. Demand has been increasing over the last few years on the consumer level, but production potential is growing faster. The weaker production due to adverse weather in both Brazil and Argentina this year should help to hold prices from going much lower
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.315 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 98.10 ct/lb. Brazil will get showers tomorrow and over the weekend with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers or dry weather.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 98.00, 94.00, and 93.00 December. Support is at 98.00, 97.00, and 95.00 December, and resistance is at 102.00, 105.00 and 106.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1290, 1280, and 1260 November, and resistance is at 1320, 1340, and 1360 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed higher again yesterday and trends are up in both markets. Support is coming from the higher Crude Oil prices and on ideas of improving ethanol demand. The US government is looking for ways to increase biofuels consumption in the US after granting the refinery waivers. It has found a way to partially restore the lost demand by increasing the use of E-85 but most oil companies are fighting this new initiative. It is still dry in Brazil but some improved rains are forecast for the near future. Other Sugar production areas such as India and Thailand have good weather. It remains too hot and dry in parts of Europe and production of Sugar beets has been slow. Australia remains hot and dry but some southern sections are getting some rains now. It was dry in Queensland over the weekend but conditions there are reported to be fair.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near normal. USDA said that Sugar beets are now 11% harvested, from 8% last week, 15% last year, and 13% average.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1210, 1190, and 1170 March, and resistance is at 1230, 1250, and 1270 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 323.00, 318.00, and 314.00 December, and resistance is at 331.00, 335.00, and 337.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher in London and lower in New York. Trends are up in both markets but futures are now getting closer to some big resistance areas on the charts and might struggle to rally much more. The market could start to act weaker as the next main crop harvest comes closer to reality in West Africa. Some initial harvesting is being reported in Nigeria, but most areas will not start the harvest just yet. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers, but there are reports of disease in Ghana. There is also talk that the governments in Ivory Coast and Ghana are trying to force buyers to pay more to help support minimum pricing schemes that the governments have enacted. These efforts are reported to be at least partially successful as they control a huge part of the market. Growing and harvesting conditions in Asia are also reported to be good. The harvest is ongoing amid somewhat drier weather.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.853 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2430, 2400, and 2370 December, with resistance at 2480, 2500, and 2520 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1970 December. Support is at 1860, 1850, and 1830 December, with resistance at 1890, 1910, and 1920 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322