About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Sep 23
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING SEP 19, 2019
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 09/19/2019 09/12/2019 09/20/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 49 0 3,036 3,547
CORN 233,993 423,129 1,353,382 1,129,132 3,077,810
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 48 170
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 499 0 0 798 1,198
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 6,276 45,857 3,496 85,675 6,332
SOYBEANS 922,550 668,496 719,339 2,164,513 2,340,915
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 476,173 517,550 429,193 8,005,684 6,545,647
Total 1,639,491 1,655,081 2,505,410 11,388,886 11,975,619
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Sep 23
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 45.089 million pounds, in August, 14.4% below the previous
month, and 29.5% above August 2018, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Monday.
In thousand pounds.
public
Aug 31 Jul 31 Aug 31 Jul 31 warehouse
2019 2019 2018 2018 stocks/Aug
pork bellies 45,089 52,647 34,805 38,556
orange juice 807,895 822,305 633,390 691,110
french fries 938,669 907,021 898,725 859,456
other potatoes 226,606 227,094 242,029 237,286
chicken rstr (whole) 22,405 20,588 20,407 16,379
ham 202,546 182,555 204,763 167,563
total pork 606,024 611,695 581,513 552,029 558,369
total beef 469,380 451,918 501,315 484,248 463,777
total red meat 1,127,432 1,111,382 1,136,393 1,096,502 1,074,140
total chicken 897,577 850,195 926,247 877,649
total turkey 562,503 557,031 606,359 594,927
total poultry 1,463,801 1,411,046 1,536,580 1,476,861 1,365,127
===============================================================================

Crop Progress
Date 15-Sep 8-Sep 2018 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 64 54 57 57
Cotton Harvested 11 9 16 11
Corn Dough 96 93 100 100
Corn Dented 79 68 96 94
Corn Mature 29 18 69 57
Corn Harvested 7 4 15 11
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 34 15 68 59
Sorghum Coloring 90 79 93 90
Sorghum Mature 42 34 49 53
Sorghum Harvested 26 24 29 31
Rice Harvested 58 46 63 61
Oats Harvested 96 92 100 99
Spring Wheat Harvested 87 76 99 97
Barley Harvested 87 82 95 96
Sugar beets Harvested 11 8 15 13
Peanuts Harvested 16 5 9 10
Winter Wheat Planted 22 8 26 24

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 3 16 42 32 7
Cotton Last Week 3 14 42 34 7
Cotton Last Year 7 22 32 29 10

Corn This Week 3 10 30 46 11
Corn Last Week 4 10 31 44 11
Corn Last Year 4 8 19 47 22

Soybeans This Week 3 10 33 45 9
Soybeans Last Week 4 10 32 45 9
Soybeans Last Year 3 7 22 49 19

Sorghum This Week 2 6 27 51 14
Sorghum Last Week 1 6 28 51 14
Sorghum Last Year 5 11 29 45 10

Peanuts This Week 1 7 31 54 7
Peanuts Last Week 2 7 30 55 6
Peanuts Last Year 1 5 23 58 13

Pastures and Ranges This Week 7 17 31 38 7
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 6 16 31 39 8
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 9 15 31 38 7

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were mostly lower yesterday but Minneapolis Spring Wheat was higher on weather concerns. Spring Wheat futures rallied as rains interrupted harvest progress in the northern Great Plains. The rains have hurt the already slow harvest progress and could affect quality if the rains continue. USDA showed better than expected harvest progress last night despite the rains. Harvest is underway in Canada with most progress made in Saskatchewan and very little progress reported in Manitoba and Alberta. Planting of the next Winter Wheat crop is making good progress under mostly good conditions in the central Great Plains and Midwest. Demand remains a big problem although the export inspections report was at the high-end of trade expectations. US export sales were lower last week and were very disappointing. There is just a lot of Wheat on offer around the world and that will limit any upside potential for US export demand and for Wheat prices.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions until showers appear this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers later this week and late in the weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal through Thursday, than below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly light to moderate showers on Thursday and over the weekend. Temperatures should be below normal with a hard freeze possible this weekend.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 481, 475, and 469 December, with resistance at 492, 496, and 498 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 403, 399, and 397 December, with resistance at 414, 425, and 428 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 540 December. Support is at 528, 523, and 518 December, and resistance is at 539, 544, and 550 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was sharply lower on what appeared to be chart based selling from speculators. There did not appear to be any news to justify the move as demand has been good and harvest reports have been uneven. Harvest is moving along at roughly a normal pace but the trade still expects greatly reduced long grain production this year. The main harvest is winding down in Texas and southern Louisiana and is very active in Mississippi and Arkansas. Yield reports are generally average to below average for these areas. Yield results are not expected to improve as the harvest moves north. Producers to the north had a terrible time getting crops planted and then fields saw big rains at time through the Summer. Some of the crops are got more rains over the weekend but might turn drier now. Dry weather is needed for the harvest.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1189 November. Support is at 1200, 1195, and 1189 November, with resistance at 1220, 1227, and 1230 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher but held inside the recent range varying reports for the initial harvest. The weekly export inspections report was very weak and hurt buying interest. Support came from reports of good talks between the US and China last week and hopes for improved bio fuels demand. The government working hard to get bio fuels demand improved after tossing away a lot of the demand by granting waivers to 31 refineries a couple of weeks ago. It reports good progress in the negotiations although no deal has been announced yet. The new program would make E-85 more available in the US although logistics have to be worked out. It would not replace all of the lost demand but it would be a start. The harvest has begun in parts of the Midwest and variable yields have been reported. The vast majority of the yields have been below a year ago and this could indicate that the crop will be much smaller than projected by USDA in its monthly estimates. The crops harvested first were planted first and were thought to have the highest yield potential. Yield reports from the country will now become very important for traders but USDA showed improved crop conditions last night against ideas of slightly worse conditions. Progress remains very far behind.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 200,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 368, 365, and 363 December, and resistance is at 374, 377, and 381 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 278, 275, and 272 December, and resistance is at 281, 285, and 286 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher on reports that China bought 10 or more cargoes of US Soybeans over the weekend. The trade talks last week apparently went better than the tweets from the president implied on Friday as trade negotiators for both sides noted progress and that the talks would resume soon. China said after the close yesterday that the talks could resume next week. USDA noted unchanged crop conditions and as expected but still very slow crop progress last night. The unchanged conditions went against ideas of slightly lower ratings. A quick trip south of Chicago late last week showed that Soybeans were starting to turn color in a lot of fields with one or two fields cut already. The harvest is not far away and yield reports will be monitored. No one is exactly sure how the crop will turn out but the betting is still that USDA is too high with its yield estimates. A smaller crop will not mean a big change in pricing and a big rally if the US is not selling and it needs to get a trade deal with China to sell in a big way. USDA showed stronger than expected export inspections yesterday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 886, 881, and 879 November, and resistance is at 899, 905, and 909 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 291.00, 289.00, and 286.00 October, and resistance is at 295.00, 297.00, and 298.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2900, 2850, and 2800 October, with resistance at 2950, 2980, and 3020 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher on Chicago price action and slow harvest progress. It keeps raining in the Prairies and the harvest progress has been slow. Reports indicate that the harvest is making good progress now. There has not been a frost or freeze yet to hurt the seed. Reports from the field indicate good yields. Palm Oil was lower and futures made new lows for the move as export demand remained disappointing. SGS showed lower export for the month so far and the market sold off more on the news. Export data from the private sources has been lower so far this month. The market still expects limited upside potential, but the charts show that the market still has potential to move higher over time. There are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand. Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 445.00, 441.00, and 437.00 November, with resistance at 451.00, 453.00, and 455.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 2120 and 2020 December. Support is at 2180, 2140, and 2120 December, with resistance at 2220, 2240, and 2270 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry this week than showers possible late this week and mostly this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September +37 Dec +160 Dec +70 Sep +16 Nov +12 Oct N/A
October +42 Dec +80 Dec +17 Nov
November +45 Dec +80 Dec +31 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 23
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 425.40 -20.00 Nov 2019 dn 3.50
Basis: Thunder Bay 459.30 10.00 Nov 2019 dn 0.90
Basis: Vancouver 468.30 17.00 Nov 2019 dn 0.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(new@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – September 24
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 520.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 525.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 530.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 552.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 525.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 530.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 535.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 557.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 527.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 430.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 2,090.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 137.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1790)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 24
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 138,112 lots, or 4.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 3,390 3,390 3,390 3,390 3,394 3,390 -4 2 332
Jan-20 3,448 3,452 3,408 3,426 3,436 3,427 -9 127,966 221,532
Mar-20 – – – 3,407 3,415 3,407 -8 0 30
May-20 3,677 3,677 3,635 3,651 3,662 3,652 -10 9,752 62,320
Jul-20 – – – 3,656 3,667 3,656 -11 0 16
Sep-20 3,695 3,695 3,667 3,674 3,680 3,678 -2 392 842
Corn
Turnover: 657,784 lots, or 12.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 1,834 1,836 1,830 1,830 1,833 1,833 0 76,390 191,912
Jan-20 1,856 1,862 1,853 1,854 1,856 1,857 1 520,478 1,261,284
Mar-20 1,878 1,881 1,876 1,878 1,878 1,879 1 148 5,428
May-20 1,921 1,929 1,921 1,924 1,926 1,925 -1 54,378 367,080
Jul-20 1,944 1,949 1,944 1,944 1,947 1,945 -2 622 2,578
Sep-20 1,964 1,975 1,964 1,968 1,970 1,971 1 5,768 21,974
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,493,830 lots, or 42.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 2,900 2,900 2,873 2,879 2,913 2,884 -29 60,908 218,530
Dec-19 2,894 2,894 2,872 2,875 2,908 2,881 -27 926 2,578
Jan-20 2,852 2,861 2,837 2,845 2,870 2,848 -22 1,194,036 1,871,788
Mar-20 2,828 2,831 2,826 2,828 2,846 2,829 -17 26 774
May-20 2,761 2,770 2,754 2,763 2,763 2,762 -1 222,708 788,198
Jul-20 2,771 2,771 2,765 2,767 2,773 2,768 -5 66 1,854
Aug-20 2,781 2,793 2,781 2,789 2,791 2,787 -4 24 154
Sep-20 2,797 2,802 2,792 2,801 2,795 2,798 3 15,136 68,366
Palm Oil
Turnover: 869,776 lots, or 41.56 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-19 – – – 5,078 5,078 5,078 0 0 2
Nov-19 – – – 5,220 5,220 5,220 0 0 8
Dec-19 – – – 4,810 5,010 4,810 -200 0 4
Jan-20 4,800 4,802 4,698 4,720 4,810 4,746 -64 772,216 553,452
Feb-20 – – – 4,844 4,908 4,844 -64 0 716
Mar-20 – – – 4,922 4,988 4,922 -66 0 2
Apr-20 – – – 4,912 4,978 4,912 -66 0 2
May-20 5,070 5,070 4,976 4,998 5,066 5,020 -46 94,962 138,158
Jun-20 – – – 5,132 5,132 5,132 0 0 6
Jul-20 5,012 5,058 5,010 5,058 5,082 5,030 -52 8 602
Aug-20 – – – 5,062 5,114 5,062 -52 0 2
Sep-20 5,112 5,112 5,048 5,060 5,118 5,074 -44 2,590 7,656
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 925,302 lots, or 55.70 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 6,078 6,078 6,078 0 0 4
Dec-19 – – – 6,010 6,010 6,010 0 0 12
Jan-20 6,064 6,064 5,976 5,986 6,060 6,016 -44 834,426 859,964
Mar-20 – – – 6,118 6,118 6,118 0 0 522
May-20 6,072 6,078 6,010 6,022 6,070 6,044 -26 87,832 263,850
Jul-20 – – – 6,092 6,092 6,092 0 0 524
Aug-20 5,980 6,062 5,980 6,062 6,218 6,020 -198 24 0
Sep-20 6,116 6,130 6,076 6,084 6,108 6,094 -14 3,020 14,050
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322