About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower and closed near the lows of the week in reaction to weak demand and improving crop conditions. It was a disappointing week for those who want to see higher prices. The export demand remains weak and Cotton traders got no bullish help from Washington when the president tweeted that he would not accept increased agricultural demand and a partial trade deal. World demand has been weak in part due to the US-China tensions and fears of a recession or at least a global economic slowdown are keeping buyers away. World prices are weak. Production ideas remain elevated despite bad weather in the Texas Panhandle. It remains generally hot and dry there. Producers in the Southeast have dodged some bullets in the past few weeks as tropical storms and hurricanes have stayed away. Harvest is underway now and will increase in the next couple of weeks, so there are not many reasons to look for much upside in prices for a while.
Overnight News: The Delta should see showers later in the week in northern and western areas and Southeast should see dry conditions. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Texas will have dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 57.95 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 11,185 bales, from 11,185 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6020, 5980, and 5910 December, with resistance of 6120, 6210, and 6290 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 17, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 301,490
: Positions :
: 32,827 65,778 82,285 94,026 125,293 76,751 14,713 285,889 288,069: 15,601 13,421
: Changes from: September 10, 2019 (Change in open interest: 4,428) :
: -1,758 -11,121 5,405 1,996 12,818 -1,425 -2,272 4,218 4,831: 209 -403
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.9 21.8 27.3 31.2 41.6 25.5 4.9 94.8 95.5: 5.2 4.5
: Total Traders: 310 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 76 107 95 59 57 49 24 246 231:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower last week. Traders were keeping a close eye on tropical systems that could hit Florida. The state has been lucky this year as the storms have curved away from the state and moved into the US farther north or remained out at sea. It is just past the high point in the hurricane season and forecasters are still keeping close eyes on the Atlantic. There are currently three tropical systems of interest but none are likely to hit the state. Chart patterns are mixed in response to the hurricane threats and the potential for more systems to form in the short-term. The weather in Florida had been good as the state has seen frequent showers and storms that have aided in development in the fruit. Inventories in Florida are still well above a year ago. Fruit for the next crop is developing and the harvest will be starting soon. Crop conditions are called good.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions this week, then chances for showers and storms though the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to below normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September FCOJ contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 98.00 and 94.00 November. Support is at 98.00, 97.00, and 95.00 September, with resistance at 102.00, 103.00, and 105.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 17, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 21,421 :
: Positions :
: 12,088 8,821 1,074 0 70 748 6,345 133 1,115 912 3,546 :
: Changes from: September 10, 2019 :
: -17 -131 -5 0 0 -50 -52 21 -60 -13 18 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 56.4 41.2 5.0 0.0 0.3 3.5 29.6 0.6 5.2 4.3 16.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 78 :
: 25 16 5 0 . . 20 . 15 6 12 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed a little lower for the week. The Arabica growing areas are waiting for rains to restart flowering after some rains earlier in the year. Rains are forecast to start next week. Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year. It has been warm and dry at times, then the growing areas have seen some very heavy rains. The harvest there will be underway soon. Demand has been increasing over the last few years on the consumer level, but production potential is growing faster. Producers in Brazil have the best chances to make money at current prices as they have more mechanized farming. Vietnam has more mechanization, too. Both countries are forecasting big production that may or may not materialize. The rest of the Coffee origin world will struggle due to more difficult growing terrain and higher costs of production. Production in these areas has been weaker. The weaker production this year should help to hold prices from going much lower and the price action from last week implied that futures have found a low value for now
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.313 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 97.87 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near normal temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers and storms mostly in the north. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 493 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 98.00, 94.00, and 93.00 December. Support is at 98.00, 97.00, and 95.00 December, and resistance is at 102.00, 105.00 and 106.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1290, 1280, and 1260 November, and resistance is at 1320, 1340, and 1360 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 17, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 304,078
: Positions :
: 30,434 72,490 70,969 117,201 127,466 64,474 22,219 283,078 293,145: 21,000 10,934
: Changes from: September 10, 2019 (Change in open interest: -18,263) :
: -3,147 -11,393 -14,171 -1,740 10,001 -747 -3,855 -19,805 -19,417: 1,542 1,155
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.0 23.8 23.3 38.5 41.9 21.2 7.3 93.1 96.4: 6.9 3.6
: Total Traders: 438 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 135 113 133 120 103 44 23 373 310:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/17/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
151,543 89,656 59,288 19,586 8,485 1,998
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 59.2% 39.1% 12.9% 5.6% 1.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
159 54 39 16 7 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
4,451 51,808 11,136 3,892 666 11,918
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
2.9% 34.2% 7.3% 2.6% 0.4% 7.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
9 41 13 13 7 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
8,905 6,243
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.9% 4.1%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed higher and trends are up in both markets. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region. The market could start to act weaker as the next main crop harvest comes closer to reality in West Africa. In fact, some initial harvesting is being reported in Nigeria, but most areas will not start the harvest just yet. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. The precipitation is a little less now so there are no real concerns about disease. Ideas are that the next crop will be good. Growing and harvesting conditions in Asia are also reported to be good. The harvest is ongoing amid somewhat drier weather. More and more Asian Cocoa has been staying at home and processed in Indonesia for export in the region. Demand in Asia has been growing and Indonesia has been eager to be the primary source of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1190, 1170, and 1140 March, and resistance is at 1210, 1230, and 1250 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 323.00, 318.00, and 314.00 December, and resistance is at 331.00, 335.00, and 337.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 17, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,099,719
: Positions :
: 98,891 344,525 205,293 421,931 397,743 279,685 78,062 1,005,800 1,025,622: 93,919 74,097
: Changes from: September 10, 2019 (Change in open interest: -135,326) :
: -4,152 10,795 -79,288 -47,725 -60,543 -4,035 1,867 -135,201 -127,169: -126 -8,158
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.0 31.3 18.7 38.4 36.2 25.4 7.1 91.5 93.3: 8.5 6.7
: Total Traders: 279 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 59 77 87 85 77 38 20 235 217:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/17/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
102,753 53,120 37,581 11,496 3,386 1,694
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 51.7% 36.6% 11.2% 3.3% 1.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
132 51 36 9 4 5
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
16,200 46,611 5,639 5,826 602 3,430
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
15.8% 45.4% 5.5% 5.7% 0.6% 3.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
19 26 10 12 4 10
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,347 3,809
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.2% 3.7%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher and continues to build on the rally that started a few weeks ago. Trends are up in both markets but futures are now getting closer to some big resistance areas on the charts and might struggle to rally much more. The market could start to act weaker as the next main crop harvest comes closer to reality in West Africa. Some initial harvesting is being reported in Nigeria, but most areas will not start the harvest just yet. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers, but there are reports of disease in Ghana. There is also talk that the governments in Ivory Coast and Ghana are trying to force buyers to pay more to help support minimum pricing schemes that the governments have enacted. Growing and harvesting conditions in Asia are also reported to be good. The harvest is ongoing amid somewhat drier weather.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are little changed today at 3.838 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2430, 2400, and 2370 December, with resistance at 2500, 2520, and 2540 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1970 December. Support is at 1860, 1850, and 1830 December, with resistance at 1890, 1910, and 1920 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 17, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 304,102
: Positions :
: 34,469 60,171 63,839 139,061 151,041 53,798 19,575 291,167 294,627: 12,934 9,475
: Changes from: September 10, 2019 (Change in open interest: -6,291) :
: 3,627 -5,673 -2,609 -7,402 7,160 1,647 -3,793 -4,736 -4,914: -1,555 -1,377
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.3 19.8 21.0 45.7 49.7 17.7 6.4 95.7 96.9: 4.3 3.1
: Total Traders: 228 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 68 64 82 41 41 33 17 194 164:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/17/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
348,970 201,985 236,970 37,405 16,080 24,082
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 57.9% 67.9% 10.7% 4.6% 6.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
143 49 43 13 6 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
23,575 15,479 23,490 4,540 76 29,776
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.8% 4.4% 6.7% 1.3% 0.0% 8.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
25 16 17 15 6 20
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,117 3,017
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.2% 0.9%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322