About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville

Thursday, September 19, 2019

Price Futures Group, CBOT
Chicago, IL
(312) 264-4322
jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV
San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA
San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024
jslsa@comcast.net

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for September USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed September 1 99.4 98.5- 100.0
Placed in August 94.5 88.9- 97.8
Marketed in August 98.4 97.6- 98.8
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Sept. 1 in August in August
Allegiant Commodity Group 99.0 92.0 98.1
Allendale Inc. 98.5 88.9 97.6
HedgersEdge 98.9 91.5 98.5
Linn Group 100.0 97.8 98.3
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 100.0 97.6 98.5
NFC Markets 99.7 96.6 98.8
Texas A&M Extenstion 99.7 96.9 98.5
U.S. Commodities 98.9 92.1 98.6

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Sep 19
For the week ended Sep 12, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 286.6 0.0 12292.9 10207.2 4920.3 8.9
hrw 153.9 0.0 4648.6 2964.8 1370.8 0.0
srw 33.2 0.0 1550.7 1260.6 627.4 4.2
hrs 47.0 0.0 3405.6 3087.5 1686.1 4.8
white 32.4 0.0 2179.4 2638.0 923.6 0.0
durum 20.0 0.0 508.8 256.5 312.5 0.0
corn 1464.6 64.9 8654.9 16555.2 7785.4 124.9
soybeans 1728.1 0.0 11180.9 17796.6 10059.4 0.0
soy meal 93.7 342.1 12178.1 12593.5 1208.8 2038.2
soy oil 18.9 1.7 918.7 1071.6 130.9 39.0
upland cotton 85.0 19.3 8407.2 8933.1 6981.8 681.1
Pima cotton 15.9 0.0 174.2 267.4 124.8 0.0
sorghum 2.0 0.0 69.5 65.7 37.7 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 57.4 53.5 44.5 0.0
rice 81.9 0.0 1153.2 643.0 722.9 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday as demand from North Africa ramped up. Algeria bought from France and Egypt bought from Russia. Prices were considered lower but in line with previous sales prices. Wheat prices in Europe and Russia are moving a little higher, but the competition for sales is fierce. It remains very dry in some eastern areas of Australia and in the west. Some eastern areas of the country have seen enough rain and have good production prospects. Most Winter Crops, including Wheat, remain stressed. The trends remain down on the weekly charts despite the recovery last week so no one should be looking for more than a short-term correction. The US Dollar remains strong and the Dollar strength will inhibit any major rally attempts as the US will need cheaper prices to remain competitive. But the rally can extend for a while as the market has become very oversold. The Spring Wheat harvest should be winding down in the US and progressing rapidly in Canada. The Winter Wheat planting is underway now amid generally good conditions as most areas have had enough rain.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions until showers appear in eastern areas late this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers later this week. Temperatures should be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly light to moderate showers. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 492 and 502 December. Support is at 481, 475, and 469 December, with resistance at 496, 498, and 506 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 399, 397, and 395 December, with resistance at 411, 414, and 425 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 517, 522, and 535 December. Support is at 505, 502, and 499 December, and resistance is at 515, 518, and 523 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher once again and made new highs for the move. The price action is impressive as the harvest has been very active, but there has not really been much selling pressure from producers. The price action suggests that Rice production in the US is not strong this year and producers are not satisfied with the price. Yield reports from the country suggest that production in most areas is average at best. Ideas are that USDA will need to reduce yields and overall production in coming monthly reports. The demand side appeared to pull back on the recent rally but might have to adjust buying ideas higher if the crop gets smaller in coming reports. The weekly crop progress reports showed mostly stable crop conditions and good harvest progress.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions in the south but big rains near Houston today and in northern and western areas later in the week. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1224, 1220, and 1217 November, with resistance at 1252, 1260, and 1272 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher on weaker yield reports as the initial harvest is underway. The initial reports in general are not strong and yields are not expected to improve much as the crop was planted so late. It looks very likely that USDA will lower yield estimates in coming monthly reports. The administration here is holding its options open to respond to the bombings of refineries in Saudi Arabia but appears to be ruling out an attack on Iran for now. The administration is also pushing hard for Congress to ratify the new free trade agreement with Mexico and Canada. The agreement faces a tough road as both the right and the left have problems with it. The lack of an agreement has not hurt sales to Mexico, our largest customer. The harvest I starting and initial yield reports have been average or less on the limited areas that have been cut.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 365, 363, and 357 December, and resistance is at 374, 377, and 381 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 277, 275, and 274 December, and resistance is at 281, 285, and 286 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower, but Soybean Oil closed steady to firm. China has now bought over 700,000 tons of US Soybeans in the last week as both sides have made and are making gestures to promote progress in the trade talks that will get started in Washington next week. Expectations are that more sales announcements will be made this week, but none were made yesterday and some now think that more sales to China will depend on the lower level trade talks and any progress made next week. Corn and Soybeans both seem to have made at least interim lows in the last week. Initial harvest results have been few for Soybeans so far, but so far they point to somewhat lower yields.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 881, 879, and 875 November, and resistance is at 894, 905, and 909 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 291.00, 289.00, and 286.00 October, and resistance is at 295.00, 297.00, and 298.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3030 October. Support is at 2930, 2900, and 2850 October, with resistance at 3020, 3040, and 3080 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was mixed in choppy trading. Reports indicate that the harvest is making good progress now. There has not been a frost or freeze yet to hurt the seed. Reports from the field indicate good yields. Palm Oil was lower as it reacted to the price action in Chicago markets and in Crude Oil. SGS showed lower export for the month so far and the market sold off more on the news. Export data from the private sources has been lower so far this month. The market still expects limited upside potential, but the charts show that the market still has potential to move higher over time. There are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand. Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are 700.935 tons so far this month, from 752,470 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 469.00 November. Support is at 450.00, 445.00, and 441.00 November, with resistance at 455.00, 456.00, and 457.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2250, 2220, and 2200 November, with resistance at 2280, 2300, and 2230 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry this week than showers possible this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September +33 Dec +155 Dec +70 Sep +11 Nov +12 Oct N/A
October +39 Dec +80 Dec +13 Nov
November +42 Dec +80 Dec +25 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 18
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Sept. 18 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Wednesday, September 18.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 430.50 -20.00 Nov 2019 dn 0.20
Track Thunder Bay 462.30 10.00 Nov 2019 dn 0.20
Track Vancouver 472.30 20.00 Nov 2019 dn 0.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – September 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 535.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 535.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 540.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 547.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 565.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 540.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 540.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 545.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 552.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 570.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 540.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 445.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 2,150.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 141.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1900)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 121,218 lots, or 4.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 3,501 3,501 3,433 3,454 3,451 3,453 2 18 328
Jan-20 3,483 3,489 3,456 3,463 3,481 3,471 -10 113,570 200,664
Mar-20 3,516 3,516 3,516 3,516 3,509 3,516 7 2 34
May-20 3,688 3,692 3,670 3,676 3,688 3,679 -9 7,548 61,402
Jul-20 – – – 3,681 3,681 3,681 0 0 16
Sep-20 3,698 3,703 3,695 3,700 3,705 3,700 -5 80 612
Corn
Turnover: 867,136 lots, or 16.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 1,849 1,855 1,839 1,839 1,844 1,848 4 38,044 295,728
Jan-20 1,872 1,882 1,862 1,864 1,868 1,872 4 748,918 1,217,812
Mar-20 1,888 1,903 1,885 1,885 1,892 1,892 0 498 5,108
May-20 1,935 1,943 1,927 1,928 1,931 1,934 3 68,898 328,640
Jul-20 1,955 1,965 1,951 1,952 1,950 1,960 10 1,192 2,924
Sep-20 1,981 1,992 1,977 1,979 1,974 1,986 12 9,586 12,802
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,615,714 lots, or 46.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 2,895 2,917 2,893 2,902 2,904 2,902 -2 72,568 250,972
Dec-19 2,897 2,905 2,881 2,895 2,896 2,897 1 1,410 2,356
Jan-20 2,862 2,880 2,852 2,862 2,859 2,865 6 1,353,722 1,929,498
Mar-20 2,841 2,847 2,831 2,836 2,832 2,838 6 28 762
May-20 2,760 2,774 2,756 2,765 2,766 2,764 -2 179,058 780,128
Jul-20 2,774 2,776 2,774 2,776 2,774 2,775 1 52 1,914
Aug-20 2,802 2,802 2,797 2,797 2,790 2,799 9 4 146
Sep-20 2,800 2,811 2,792 2,805 2,806 2,803 -3 8,872 47,112
Palm Oil
Turnover: 841,686 lots, or 41.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-19 – – – 4,986 4,986 4,986 0 0 2
Nov-19 – – – 5,126 5,126 5,126 0 0 8
Dec-19 4,920 4,920 4,920 4,920 5,124 4,920 -204 2 4
Jan-20 4,888 4,916 4,814 4,820 4,930 4,872 -58 739,460 568,952
Feb-20 – – – 4,964 5,022 4,964 -58 0 716
Mar-20 – – – 5,046 5,106 5,046 -60 0 2
Apr-20 – – – 5,046 5,106 5,046 -60 0 2
May-20 5,112 5,162 5,078 5,080 5,150 5,124 -26 100,320 128,472
Jun-20 – – – 5,152 5,178 5,152 -26 0 6
Jul-20 5,150 5,200 5,084 5,200 5,182 5,138 -44 16 602
Aug-20 – – – 5,150 5,194 5,150 -44 0 2
Sep-20 5,162 5,204 5,130 5,132 5,180 5,158 -22 1,888 4,856
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 854,804 lots, or 52.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 6,078 6,078 6,078 0 0 4
Dec-19 6,112 6,112 6,112 6,112 6,070 6,112 42 4 18
Jan-20 6,140 6,146 6,062 6,066 6,166 6,110 -56 713,676 900,094
Mar-20 6,198 6,232 6,198 6,230 6,220 6,220 0 6 522
May-20 6,122 6,170 6,098 6,100 6,138 6,134 -4 139,564 272,512
Jul-20 – – – 6,152 6,152 6,152 0 0 526
Aug-20 – – – 6,292 6,296 6,292 -4 0 0
Sep-20 6,138 6,198 6,126 6,150 6,152 6,176 24 1,554 6,900
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures.
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