About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for September USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed September 1 99.4 98.5- 100.0
Placed in August 94.5 88.9- 97.8
Marketed in August 98.4 97.6- 98.8
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Sept. 1 in August in August
Allegiant Commodity Group 99.0 92.0 98.1
Allendale Inc. 98.5 88.9 97.6
HedgersEdge 98.9 91.5 98.5
Linn Group 100.0 97.8 98.3
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 100.0 97.6 98.5
NFC Markets 99.7 96.6 98.8
Texas A&M Extenstion 99.7 96.9 98.5
U.S. Commodities 98.9 92.1 98.6
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday on long liquidation and demand worries. Wheat prices in Europe and Russia are moving a little higher. It remains very dry in some eastern areas of Australia and in the west. Some eastern areas of the country have seen enough rain and have good production prospects. Most Winter Crops, including Wheat, remain stressed. The trends remain down on the weekly charts despite the recovery last week so no one should be looking for more than a short-term correction. The US Dollar remains strong and the Dollar strength will inhibit any major rally attempts as the US will need cheaper prices to remain competitive. But the rally can extend for a while as the market has become very oversold. The Spring Wheat harvest should be winding down in the US and progressing rapidly in Canada. The Winter Wheat planting is underway now amid generally good conditions as most areas have had enough rain.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions until showers appear in eastern areas late this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers later this week. Temperatures should be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly light to moderate showers. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 492 and 502 December. Support is at 481, 475, and 469 December, with resistance at 491, 496, and 498 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 397, 395, and 390 December, with resistance at 410, 414, and 425 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 517, 522, and 535 December. Support is at 505, 502, and 499 December, and resistance is at 512, 514, and 518 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher and made new highs for the move. The price action is impressive as the harvest has been very active. The price action suggests that Rice production in the US is not strong this year. Yield reports from the country suggest that production in most areas is average at best. Ideas are that USDA will need to reduce yields and overall production in coming monthly reports. The demand side appeared to pull back on the recent rally but might have to adjust buying ideas higher if the crop gets smaller in coming reports. The weekly crop progress reports showed mostly stable crop conditions and good harvest progress.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions in the south but big rains near Houston today and in northern and western areas later in the week. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1231 November. Support is at 1217, 1212, and 1200 November, with resistance at 1233, 1252, and 1260 November.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Sep 18
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 14.40 9.19 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.06 9.42 0.00
Brokens 8.69 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower on reports that Saudi Arabian crude oil production might be less for only a short period of time and on better than expected conditions in the weekly USDA reports. The bombing of refineries in Saudi Arabia created hopes for better ethanol demand and the government is still trying to find a way to improve ethanol demand here in the US after it threw so much of it away by allowing waivers on refineries here. The administration is also pushing hard for Congress to ratify the new free trade agreement with Mexico and Canada. The agreement faces a tough road as both the right and the left have problems with it. The lack of an agreement has not hurt sales to Mexico, our largest customer. The harvest I starting and initial yield reports have been average or less on the limited areas that have been cut.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 365, 363, and 357 December, and resistance is at 374, 377, and 381 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 277, 275, and 274 December, and resistance is at 285, 286, and 289 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower, but the losses were modest for Soybeans. China has now bought over 700,000 tons of US Soybeans in the last week as both side have made and are making gestures to promote progress in the trade talks that will get started in Washington next week. Expectations are that more sales announcements will be made this week. The USDA production reports were a little bearish as production and yields were higher than expected by private analysts. Like Corn, the results from USDA were within the range of trade expectations and were lower than some of the estimates from the biggest private estimators. The weekly condition reports showed slightly better than expected conditions. Corn and Soybeans both seem to have made at least interim lows in the last week. The USDA crop progress and condition reports showed slightly better conditions than had been anticipated by the trade.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 907, 927, and 955 November. Support is at 888, 882, and 879 November, and resistance is at 905, 909, and 913 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 291.00, 289.00, and 286.00 October, and resistance is at 295.00, 297.00, and 298.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3030 October. Support is at 2930, 2900, and 2850 October, with resistance at 3020, 3040, and 3080 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was little changed in choppy trading and on a lack of news. Reports indicate that the harvest is making good progress now. There has not been a frost or freeze yet to hurt the seed. Reports from the field indicate good yields. Palm Oil was lower as it reacted to the price action in Chicago markets and in Crude Oil. SGS showed lower export for the month so far and the market sold off more on the news. Export data from the private sources has been lower so far this month. The market still expects limited upside potential, but the charts show that the market still has potential to move higher over time. There are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand. Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are 700.935 tons so far this month, from 752,470 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 469.00 November. Support is at 450.00, 445.00, and 441.00 November, with resistance at 456.00, 457.00, and 460.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2320 and 2390 December. Support is at 2280, 2250, and 2220 November, with resistance at 2300, 2330, and 2270 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry this week than showers possible this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September +32 Dec +155 Dec +70 Sep +16 Nov +12 Oct N/A
October +39 Dec +80 Dec +16 Nov
November +43 Dec +80 Dec +26 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – September 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 535.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 537.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 542.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 550.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 570.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 540.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 542.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 547.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 555.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 575.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 545.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 450.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 2,160 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 142.00 -08.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1835)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 18
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 172,452 lots, or 6.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 3,442 3,497 3,415 3,463 3,442 3,451 9 68 326
Jan-20 3,486 3,504 3,462 3,483 3,464 3,481 17 160,198 209,582
Mar-20 – – – 3,509 3,509 3,509 0 0 32
May-20 3,691 3,702 3,674 3,684 3,682 3,688 6 11,952 61,636
Jul-20 – – – 3,681 3,681 3,681 0 0 16
Sep-20 3,712 3,713 3,695 3,698 3,707 3,705 -2 234 588
Corn
Turnover: 696,582 lots, or 13.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 1,842 1,849 1,839 1,848 1,846 1,844 -2 39,916 305,312
Jan-20 1,867 1,876 1,862 1,873 1,864 1,868 4 580,926 1,226,772
Mar-20 1,885 1,896 1,884 1,893 1,884 1,892 8 596 5,046
May-20 1,928 1,938 1,926 1,936 1,925 1,931 6 68,294 324,076
Jul-20 1,946 1,957 1,942 1,956 1,941 1,950 9 802 2,132
Sep-20 1,967 1,984 1,965 1,981 1,967 1,974 7 6,048 8,678
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,365,778 lots, or 38.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 2,894 2,918 2,887 2,904 2,887 2,904 17 52,824 257,110
Dec-19 2,885 2,904 2,879 2,898 2,877 2,896 19 1,842 2,314
Jan-20 2,859 2,870 2,849 2,863 2,852 2,859 7 1,064,228 1,926,274
Mar-20 2,829 2,841 2,827 2,833 2,824 2,832 8 28 766
May-20 2,771 2,776 2,760 2,762 2,768 2,766 -2 214,332 796,184
Jul-20 2,772 2,782 2,769 2,769 2,776 2,774 -2 112 1,930
Aug-20 2,794 2,794 2,785 2,785 2,797 2,790 -7 30 148
Sep-20 2,819 2,819 2,796 2,799 2,813 2,806 -7 32,382 45,804
Palm Oil
Turnover: 773,166 lots, or 38.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-19 5,010 5,010 4,908 4,908 4,828 4,986 158 12 2
Nov-19 – – – 5,126 4,964 5,126 162 0 8
Dec-19 – – – 5,124 4,962 5,124 162 0 6
Jan-20 4,990 5,000 4,886 4,888 4,986 4,930 -56 693,166 618,320
Feb-20 – – – 5,022 5,078 5,022 -56 0 716
Mar-20 – – – 5,106 5,162 5,106 -56 0 2
Apr-20 – – – 5,106 5,162 5,106 -56 0 2
May-20 5,190 5,210 5,116 5,120 5,192 5,150 -42 77,528 122,710
Jun-20 – – – 5,178 5,220 5,178 -42 0 6
Jul-20 5,182 5,182 5,182 5,182 5,256 5,182 -74 2 602
Aug-20 – – – 5,194 5,268 5,194 -74 0 2
Sep-20 5,240 5,240 5,162 5,162 5,216 5,180 -36 2,458 3,454
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 716,878 lots, or 44.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 6,078 6,078 6,078 0 0 4
Dec-19 – – – 6,070 6,070 6,070 0 0 20
Jan-20 6,198 6,208 6,136 6,138 6,180 6,166 -14 625,922 899,952
Mar-20 – – – 6,220 6,234 6,220 -14 0 520
May-20 6,164 6,176 6,108 6,126 6,158 6,138 -20 87,186 246,346
Jul-20 – – – 6,152 6,172 6,152 -20 0 526
Aug-20 – – – 6,296 6,316 6,296 -20 0 0
Sep-20 6,192 6,200 6,136 6,142 6,180 6,152 -28 3,770 6,622
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322