About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Crop Progress
Date 15-Sep 8-Sep 2018 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 54 43 48 47
Cotton Harvested 9 7 13 8
Corn Dough 93 89 99 98
Corn Dented 68 55 92 87
Corn Mature 18 11 51 39
Corn Harvested 4 8 7
Soybeans Setting Pods 95 92 100 100
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 15 50 38
Sorghum Coloring 79 65 87 84
Sorghum Mature 34 27 40 44
Sorghum Harvested 24 22 26 27
Rice Harvested 46 30 48 48
Oats Harvested 92 89 96 97
Spring Wheat Harvested 76 71 96 93
Barley Harvested 87 82 95 96
Sugar beets Harvested 8 11 9
Peanuts Harvested 5 3 5
Winter Wheat Planted 8 12 12

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 3 14 42 34 7
Cotton Last Week 3 15 39 37 6
Cotton Last Year 8 24 29 30 9

Corn This Week 4 10 31 44 11
Corn Last Week 4 10 31 45 10
Corn Last Year 4 8 20 47 21

Soybeans This Week 4 10 32 45 9
Soybeans Last Week 3 9 33 45 10
Soybeans Last Year 3 7 23 49 18

Sorghum This Week 1 6 28 51 14
Sorghum Last Week 1 5 26 53 15
Sorghum Last Year 5 12 30 44 9

Rice This Week 1 5 25 47 22
Rice Last Week 1 5 25 46 23
Rice Last Year 0 4 22 58 16

Peanuts This Week 2 7 30 55 6
Peanuts Last Week 2 6 28 55 9
Peanuts Last Year 2 4 22 57 15

Pastures and Ranges This Week 6 16 31 39 8
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 6 14 29 43 8
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 9 16 31 38 6

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Sep 16
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING SEP 12, 2019
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 09/12/2019 09/05/2019 09/13/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 343 2,987 3,547
CORN 421,803 612,065 1,045,907 893,813 1,724,428
FLAXSEED 0 /0 0 48 170
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 299 1,198
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 45,161 34,549 1,326 78,703 2,836
SOYBEANS 666,490 977,914 787,246 1,239,957 1,621,576
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 459,258 412,608 411,165 7,470,221 6,116,454
Total 1,592,712 2,037,136 2,245,987 9,686,028 9,470,209
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for September USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed September 1 99.4 98.5- 100.0
Placed in August 94.5 88.9- 97.8
Marketed in August 98.4 97.6- 98.8
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Sept. 1 in August in August
Allegiant Commodity Group 99.0 92.0 98.1
Allendale Inc. 98.5 88.9 97.6
HedgersEdge 98.9 91.5 98.5
Linn Group 100.0 97.8 98.3
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 100.0 97.6 98.5
NFC Markets 99.7 96.6 98.8
Texas A&M Extenstion 99.7 96.9 98.5
U.S. Commodities 98.9 92.1 98.6

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 17
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN September Sep. 17, 2019 7 Sep 13, 2019

Alerts History
• 16-Sep-2019 11:00:04 AM – U.S. AUGUST SOYBEAN CRUSH 168.085 MILLION BUSHELS – NOPA
• 16-Sep-2019 11:00:04 AM – U.S. AUGUST SOYOIL STOCKS 1.401 BILLION LBS – NOPA
• 16-Sep-2019 11:00:04 AM – U.S. AUGUST SOYMEAL EXPORTS 699,212 TONS – NOPA
NOPA August soy crush exceeds estimates at 168.085 million bushels – Reuters News

Alerts History
• 16-Sep-2019 05:09:58 PM – U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SAYS $4.07 BILLION OF LATEST TRADE AID PACKAGE HAS BEEN PAID TO FARMERS

U.S. farmers receive $4.07 bln of latest government trade aid – Reuters News
16-Sep-2019 05:10:12 PM
To view this story on Eikon, click here
CHICAGO, Sept 16 (Reuters) – The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has paid $4.07 billion of its latest round of compensation for farmers suffering from the trade war with China as of Monday, Communications Director Michawn Rich said in an email to Reuters.
The Trump administration in July announced $16 billion to compensate farmers for lost sales due to China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, on top of $12 billion pledged in last year’s aid package.
The aid program got off to a rocky start with farmers complaining of difficulty signing up and confusion over payment rates. (Full Story)
USDA has received 302,397 applications for the program since enrollment opened, Rich said.
(Reporting by P.J. Huffstutter
Writing by Caroline Stauffer; Editing by Tom Brown)

• 16-Sep-2019 05:54:59 PM – S.KOREA’S AGRICULTURE MINISTRY REPORTS 1ST AFRICAN SWINE FEVER AT A PIG FARM
• 16-Sep-2019 07:04:31 PM – S.KOREA RAISES ITS ALERT TO HIGHEST LEVEL AFTER AFRICAN SWINE FEVER OUTBREAK
• 16-Sep-2019 07:09:03 PM – S.KOREA ORDERS TO CULL NEARLY 4000 PIGS TO PREVENT SPREAD OF ASF
• 16-Sep-2019 07:12:03 PM – S.KOREA ORDERED TEMPORARY NATIONWIDE MOVEMENT BAN OF HOGS AND RELATED LIVESTOCK TRANSPORTATION FOR 48 HOURS
S.Korea detects first African swine fever outbreak ministry
16-Sep-2019 06:12:15 PM
To view this story on Eikon, click here
SEOUL, Sept 17 (Reuters) – South Korea reported its first outbreak of deadly African swine fever at a pig farm in Paju, northwest of Seoul, its agriculture ministry said on Tuesday.
The first case was reported in South Korea less than four months after the neighbouring North reported its first outbreak in late May. (Full Story)
(Reporting by Joori Roh, Jane Chung; editing by Darren Schuettler)
(( joori.roh@thomsonreuters.com ; +82 2 6936 1493; ))

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday as almost all agricultural markets had a positive day. Ideas are that prices are finally cheap enough. For Wheat that means that prices in Europe and Russia are moving a little higher. Speculators did most of the buying. Australia was in the news last week as ABARES cut its production estimates for Winter Wheat by a couple million tons. It remains very dry in some eastern areas and in the west. Some eastern areas of the country have seen enough rain and have good production prospects. But the agency noted that most Winter Crops, including Wheat, remain stressed. The trends remain down on the weekly charts despite the recovery last week so no one should be looking for more than a short-term correction. The US Dollar remains strong and the Dollar strength will inhibit any major rally attempts as the US will need cheaper prices to remain competitive. But the rally can extend for a while as the market has become very oversold. The Spring Wheat harvest should be winding down in the US and progressing rapidly in Canada. The Winter Wheat planting is underway now.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions until showers appear in eastern areas late this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers later this week. Temperatures should be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly light to moderate showers. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 492 and 502 December. Support is at 482, 475, and 469 December, with resistance at 491, 496, and 498 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 397, 395, and 390 December, with resistance at 410, 414, and 425 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 517, 522, and 535 December. Support is at 505, 502, and 499 December, and resistance is at 512, 514, and 518 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower in correction trading yesterday. It is one of the few ag markets that did not rally yesterday, but prices in Rice have been moving higher and probably have more to go before topping out. The USDA reports last week were bullish and tended to confirm trade ideas. The major bullish news in the reports was the reduced planted and harvested area for long grain Rice. The acreage cut was not completely unexpected but still gave bullish ideas to traders. The yield estimate was down from last month, but many feel that the yield will need to be cut further. It should be a short to very short production for long grain Rice this year and higher prices should be expected. The demand side appeared to pull back on the recent rally but might have to adjust buying ideas higher if the crop gets smaller in coming reports. The weekly crop progress reports showed mostly stable crop conditions and good harvest progress.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions in the south but big rains near Houston today and in northern and western areas later in the week. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1231 November. Support is at 1212, 1200, and 1195 November, with resistance at 1233, 1252, and 1260 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher as demand news started to improve. The bombing of refineries in Saudi Arabia created hopes for better ethanol demand and the government is still trying to find a way to improve ethanol demand here in the US after it threw so much of it away by allowing waivers on refineries here. Mexico bought at least 1.0 million tons of US Corn last week as seen in the daily USDA announcements. The administration is also pushing hard for Congress to ratify the new free trade agreement with Mexico and Canada. The agreement faces a tough road as both the right and the left have problems with it. Labor thinks they are not well enough protected and the right wants to support its business voters and has its own objections. The lack of an agreement has not hurt sales to Mexico, our largest customer. But new moves in the immigration front might as Mexico objects to keeping Central Americans on its side of the border while asylum hearings are scheduled. It rightly fears that most and almost all cases will be denied by the current administration and it will have a bigger and bigger mess on its hands. At least the Corn is still moving south and other business seems to be getting done as well. USDA showed slightly better than anticipated crop conditions in its reports last night.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 373 and 383 December. Support is at 365, 363, and 357 December, and resistance is at 377, 381, and 383 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 288 December. Support is at 277, 275, and 274 December, and resistance is at 286, 289, and 291 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher and Soybean Meal was lower. The buying came in part in response to news that refineries in Saudi Arabia were bombed over the weekend. The refineries processed half of the output from Saudi Arabia and about 5% of the world output. There are ideas that bio fuels can be used to make up for the losses. China and the US each made concessions in front of the next round of trade talks scheduled for sometime next month, with the US waiving and increase in tariffs for a couple of weeks and China exempting Soybeans and Pork from its tariff list for now. China turned and bought about 600,000 tons of US Soybeans last week according to wire services but USDA only confirmed sales of 204,000 tons on Friday and 256,000 tons on Monday. Expectations are that more sales announcements will be made this week. The USDA production reports were a little bearish as production and yields were higher than expected by private analysts. Like Corn, the results from USDA were within the range of trade expectations and were lower than some of the estimates from the biggest private estimators. The weekly condition reports showed slightly better than expected conditions. Corn and Soybeans both seem to have made at least interim lows in the last week. Corn had a reversal day up on Thursday and trends on the daily Soybeans charts turned up. It looks like prices in these markets can rally for the next few weeks until production prospects become more clear and the actual harvest comes closer.
Overnight News: China bought 260,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 907, 927, and 955 November. Support is at 893, 882, and 879 November, and resistance is at 905, 909, and 913 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 303.00 and 311.00 October. Support is at 291.00, 289.00, and 286.00 October, and resistance is at 297.00, 298.00, and 299.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3030 October. Support is at 2950, 2900, and 2850 October, with resistance at 3020, 3040, and 3080 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher yesterday in sympathy with the price action in Chicago. Reports indicate that the harvest is making good progress now. There has not been a frost or freeze yet to hurt the seed. Reports from the field indicate good yields. Palm Oil was sharply higher as it reacted to the price action in Chicago markets and in Crude Oil. The market appears to be in a short-term and shallow correction now. Export data from the private sources has been lower so far this month. The market still expects limited upside potential, but the charts show that the market still has potential to move higher over time. There are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand. Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 469.00 November. Support is at 450.00, 445.00, and 441.00 November, with resistance at 456.00, 457.00, and 460.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2140 and 2090 November. Support is at 2200, 2180, and 2140 November, with resistance at 2240, 2260, and 2270 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry this week than showers possible this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September +29 Dec +155 Dec +70 Sep +15 Nov +12 Oct N/A
October +37 Dec +80 Dec +13 Nov
November +43 Dec +80 Dec +23 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 16
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Sept. 16 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Monday, September 16.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 427.80 -20.00 Nov 2019 up 2.70
Track Thunder Bay 462.70 10.00 Nov 2019 up 2.90
Track Vancouver 472.70 20.00 Nov 2019 up 2.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – September 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 545.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct 545.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 547.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 550.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 575.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 550.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 550.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 552.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 555.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 580.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 557.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 460.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 2,200 +70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 150.00 +09.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1805)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 199,540 lots, or 6.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 3,429 3,453 3,429 3,453 3,420 3,442 22 10 314
Jan-20 3,436 3,498 3,434 3,486 3,428 3,464 36 181,316 211,678
Mar-20 – – – 3,509 3,473 3,509 36 0 32
May-20 3,656 3,706 3,656 3,697 3,659 3,682 23 17,834 59,578
Jul-20 – – – 3,681 3,671 3,681 10 0 16
Sep-20 3,700 3,717 3,671 3,714 3,671 3,707 36 380 368
Corn
Turnover: 742,324 lots, or 13.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 1,855 1,855 1,842 1,844 1,849 1,846 -3 52,052 314,380
Jan-20 1,869 1,870 1,859 1,867 1,871 1,864 -7 616,668 1,213,312
Mar-20 1,888 1,888 1,880 1,886 1,891 1,884 -7 298 5,110
May-20 1,930 1,931 1,921 1,928 1,931 1,925 -6 63,796 308,570
Jul-20 1,940 1,945 1,939 1,944 1,948 1,941 -7 1,110 1,786
Sep-20 1,970 1,973 1,962 1,968 1,948 1,967 19 8,400 5,560
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,578,742 lots, or 44.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 2,879 2,898 2,873 2,891 2,879 2,887 8 44,322 255,118
Dec-19 2,867 2,889 2,865 2,888 2,872 2,877 5 976 2,494
Jan-20 2,845 2,863 2,838 2,859 2,841 2,852 11 1,227,306 1,937,894
Mar-20 2,807 2,833 2,807 2,833 2,812 2,824 12 36 768
May-20 2,759 2,779 2,757 2,774 2,755 2,768 13 253,530 780,420
Jul-20 2,767 2,787 2,767 2,783 2,762 2,776 14 386 1,924
Aug-20 2,788 2,810 2,786 2,805 2,778 2,797 19 60 146
Sep-20 2,815 2,824 2,800 2,817 2,778 2,813 35 52,126 34,802
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,235,182 lots, or 61.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-19 4,850 4,854 4,760 4,854 4,668 4,828 160 38 8
Nov-19 4,964 4,964 4,964 4,964 4,810 4,964 154 2 8
Dec-19 – – – 4,962 4,818 4,962 144 0 6
Jan-20 4,886 5,074 4,882 5,016 4,888 4,986 98 1,115,248 641,630
Feb-20 – – – 5,078 4,980 5,078 98 0 716
Mar-20 – – – 5,162 5,062 5,162 100 0 2
Apr-20 – – – 5,162 5,062 5,162 100 0 2
May-20 5,102 5,280 5,102 5,228 5,096 5,192 96 118,036 119,042
Jun-20 – – – 5,220 5,124 5,220 96 0 6
Jul-20 – – – 5,256 5,160 5,256 96 0 604
Aug-20 – – – 5,268 5,172 5,268 96 0 2
Sep-20 5,158 5,320 5,158 5,264 5,172 5,216 44 1,858 1,544
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,200,452 lots, or 74.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 6,078 6,078 6,078 0 0 4
Dec-19 – – – 6,070 6,070 6,070 0 0 20
Jan-20 6,110 6,244 6,098 6,218 6,114 6,180 66 1,043,830 920,762
Mar-20 – – – 6,234 6,168 6,234 66 0 520
May-20 6,092 6,218 6,086 6,186 6,072 6,158 86 151,994 244,768
Jul-20 – – – 6,172 6,086 6,172 86 0 526
Aug-20 – – – 6,316 6,228 6,316 88 0 0
Sep-20 6,160 6,240 6,130 6,220 6,228 6,180 -48 4,628 3,588
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322