About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher and trends turned up on both the daily and weekly charts. The rally started as another storm took aim on the Carolinas. Buying also surfaced as USDA showed better than expected demand potential in its monthly supply and demand updates. Production was estimated in line with trade expectations. The result was that ending stocks did not change from last month. Many analysts had looked for ending stocks projections to increase and some of the bigger name Cotton market analysts had expected a significant jump in ending stocks. The fact that USDA left ending stocks unchanged was bullish against expectations although the ending stocks projections remain large by any measure. Demand remains a problem for the market as the weekly export sales reports have not been strong. The weaker current demand should be enough to keep prices from going very high but the charts offer hopes that futures could eventually trade to 69 cents per pound basis December futures.
Overnight News: The Delta should be dry and Southeast should see dry conditions. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Texas will have showers this week and a dry weekend. Temperatures will be variable. The USDA average price is now 57.92 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 11,191 bales, from 11,438 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 6650, 6910, and 6920 December. Support is at 6170, 6020, and 5980 December, with resistance of 6290, 6400, and 6470 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 10, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 297,063
: Positions :
: 34,585 76,899 76,880 92,030 112,475 78,176 16,985 281,671 283,238: 15,391 13,824
: Changes from: September 3, 2019 (Change in open interest: 5,939) :
: -64 -3,748 4,623 1,762 8,100 -576 -2,451 5,745 6,525: 195 -586
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.6 25.9 25.9 31.0 37.9 26.3 5.7 94.8 95.3: 5.2 4.7
: Total Traders: 312 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 78 112 89 57 54 50 23 240 229:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was little changed last week. Traders were keeping a close eye on a couple of storms that could hit Florida. Two was nearby but appeared on track to curve back away from the state and northeast into the Atlantic. One was still farther east and was still forming and determining its track at the end of last week. It is the high point in the hurricane season and forecasters were already watching a new system trying to form in the Atlantic. Chart patterns are mixed in response to the hurricane threats and the potential for more systems to form in the short-term. The weather in Florida had been good as the state has seen frequent showers and storms that have aided in development in the fruit. Inventories in Florida are still well above a year ago. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are as big as baseballs. Crop conditions are called good.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions today, then chances for showers and storms though the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to below normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September FCOJ contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 101.00, 98.00, and 97.00 September, with resistance at 105.00, 108.00, and 110.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 10, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 21,411 :
: Positions :
: 12,105 8,951 1,079 0 70 798 6,397 112 1,175 925 3,528 :
: Changes from: September 3, 2019 :
: -324 119 17 0 0 54 -671 97 -21 26 99 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 56.5 41.8 5.0 0.0 0.3 3.7 29.9 0.5 5.5 4.3 16.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 76 :
: 24 15 5 0 . . 19 . 15 5 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed higher for the week and had its most impressive rally week in a long time. The Arabica growing areas are waiting for rains to restart flowering after some rains earlier in the year. Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year. It has been warm and dry at times, then the growing areas have seen some very heavy rains. Demand has been increasing over the last few years on the consumer level, but production potential is growing faster. Producers in Brazil have the best chances to make money at current prices as they have more mechanized farming. Vietnam has more mechanization, too. The rest of the Coffee origin world will struggle due to more difficult growing terrain and higher costs of production. The weaker production this year should help to hold prices from going much lower and the price action from last week implied that futures have found a low value for now.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.315 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 99.03 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near normal temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers and storms mostly in the north. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 491 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 100.00, 98.00, and 97.00 December, and resistance is at 106.00, 108.00 and 109.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1300, 1290, and 1260 November, and resistance is at 1340, 1360, and 1370 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 10, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 322,341
: Positions :
: 33,581 83,883 85,140 118,941 117,465 65,220 26,074 302,883 312,562: 19,458 9,779
: Changes from: September 3, 2019 (Change in open interest: 4,431) :
: 1,224 -483 5,541 -1,635 -67 -913 -316 4,217 4,674: 214 -243
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.4 26.0 26.4 36.9 36.4 20.2 8.1 94.0 97.0: 6.0 3.0
: Total Traders: 461 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 143 122 145 123 106 44 24 394 328:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/10/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
148,311 87,407 59,232 19,686 8,475 2,489
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 58.9% 39.9% 13.3% 5.7% 1.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
154 55 41 15 6 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
4,244 49,678 11,044 3,776 645 10,266
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
2.9% 33.5% 7.4% 2.5% 0.4% 6.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
8 40 13 11 7 16
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
9,401 6,482
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.3% 4.4%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed lower for the week in New York, but higher in London. London got support from reports of poor yields for Sugar beets in Europe and Russia. New York was lower as ideas of big supplies and just average demand continue to circulate. World supplies still appear ample for the demand potential. Reports from India indicate that the country still has a large surplus of White Sugar that probably must be exported. India is reporting very good monsoon rains and production prospects for this year are strong. Brazil mills are refining mostly for ethanol right now as has been the case all season. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil is good enough and India has improved to support some of the big production ideas. The weather has been much more uneven in production areas from Russia into western Europe. Those areas had a very hot and dry start to the growing season. Better weather was seen in early August then it turned hot and dry again. These areas need more rain and some cooler weather to provide better conditions for the final development of the crops.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1170 March. Support is at 1170, 1140, and 1110 March, and resistance is at 1200, 1220, and 1240 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 310.00, 305.00, and 300.00 December, and resistance is at 319.00, 323.00, and 331.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 10, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,235,045
: Positions :
: 103,043 333,729 284,581 469,657 458,286 283,720 76,195 1,141,001 1,152,791: 94,045 82,255
: Changes from: September 3, 2019 (Change in open interest: -5,491) :
: -9,798 15,860 -6,943 14,984 -18,472 -6,536 -2,567 -8,294 -12,122: 2,803 6,631
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.3 27.0 23.0 38.0 37.1 23.0 6.2 92.4 93.3: 7.6 6.7
: Total Traders: 284 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 66 79 95 83 78 36 23 235 234:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/10/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
107,379 59,898 32,319 9,488 4,978 1,688
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 55.8% 30.1% 8.8% 4.6% 1.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
147 58 38 10 6 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
15,835 53,177 5,975 4,832 532 4,923
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
14.7% 49.5% 5.6% 4.5% 0.5% 4.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
20 30 7 11 5 14
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,739 3,787
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.4% 3.5%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher and trends are up in both markets. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region. The market could start to act weaker as the next main crop harvest comes closer to reality in West Africa. In fact, some initial harvesting is being reported in Nigeria, but most areas will not start the harvest just yet. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. The precipitation is a little less now so there are no real concerns about disease. Ideas are that the next crop will be good. Growing and harvesting conditions in Asia are also reported to be good. The harvest is ongoing amid somewhat drier weather. More and more Asian Cocoa has been staying at home and processed in Indonesia for export in the region. Demand in Asia has been growing and Indonesia has been eager to be the primary source of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.901 million bags. ICE said that 4 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 2,125 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2420 December. Support is at 2310, 2280, and 2230 December, with resistance at 2370, 2400, and 2440 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1970 December. Support is at 1760, 1740, and 1710 December, with resistance at 1800, 1830, and 1850 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 10, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 310,393
: Positions :
: 30,842 65,844 66,448 146,462 143,881 52,151 23,368 295,903 299,541: 14,489 10,852
: Changes from: September 3, 2019 (Change in open interest: -17) :
: 3,018 1,430 -1,724 -4,016 512 2,198 598 -524 815: 507 -832
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.9 21.2 21.4 47.2 46.4 16.8 7.5 95.3 96.5: 4.7 3.5
: Total Traders: 226 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 69 59 86 44 40 33 17 195 164:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/10/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
356,225 224,801 232,269 35,701 32,651 26,267
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 63.1% 65.2% 10.0% 9.2% 7.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
143 50 44 13 7 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
19,227 19,249 15,108 3,829 153 28,090
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.4% 5.4% 4.2% 1.1% 0.0% 7.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
22 20 15 13 8 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,202 2,438
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.9% 0.7%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322