About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower but held inside the trading range on the weekly charts. It is possible that futures are trying to form a bottom at this time. The hurricane passed through the Carolinas late last week but did not appear to do much damage to crops. It has been a relentless move lower since April and the entire down move now extends to the early summer of 2018. Traders are anticipating bearish USDA reports this week. Production is expected to be lower due to earlier bad weather in the Texas Panhandle. Demand could be cut even more as export demand in general has been weak and ending stocks for the current and the next crop years could be increased. Bolls are starting to open now and the fiber could be colored or could the bolls could drop if there is enough wind. The system will create new questions about production potential. Conditions in the Texas Panhandle have improved with some recent showers and ideas are that production potential had been stabilized. Demand remains a real problem for the market as export sales overall have been poor. The world market remains quiet with very limited Chinese buying interest anywhere.
Overnight News: The Delta should be dry and Southeast should see dry conditions. Temperatures should be mostly near to below normal early this week and near to above normal later this week. Texas will have showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA average price is now 54.52 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 12,802 bales, from 12,802 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 5800, 5750, and 5720 December, with resistance of 6000, 6020, and 6170 December.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Sep 6
As of Aug 30. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Oct 19 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 19 23,898 24,780 -882 40,653 41,304 -651
Mar 20 24,558 24,585 -27 4,705 4,175 530
May 20 10,847 10,857 -10 572 572 0
Jul 20 13,765 13,068 697 844 837 7
Dec 20 11,032 10,418 614 17,137 17,118 19
Mar 21 3,950 3,468 482 574 574 0
May 21 1,644 1,366 278 0 0 0
Jul 21 2,828 2,191 637 0 0 0
Dec 21 440 0 440 802 802 0
Mar 22 440 0 440 0 0 0
Total 93,402 90,733 2,669 65,287 65,382 -95
Open Change
Int
Oct 19 227 268 -41
Dec 19 141,369 136,645 4,724
Mar 20 46,986 46,862 124
May 20 8,928 8,930 -2
Jul 20 8,142 7,716 426
Dec 20 15,864 15,373 491
Mar 21 822 654 168
May 21 136 125 11
Jul 21 344 284 60
Dec 21 2 2 0
Mar 22 0 0 0
Total 222,820 216,859 5,961

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 03, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 291,123
: Positions :
: 34,649 80,646 72,256 90,269 104,374 78,752 19,436 275,927 276,713: 15,197 14,410
: Changes from: August 27, 2019 (Change in open interest: 5,294) :
: 1,827 -1,739 2,284 1,095 4,994 55 -340 5,261 5,199: 34 95
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.9 27.7 24.8 31.0 35.9 27.1 6.7 94.8 95.1: 5.2 4.9
: Total Traders: 311 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 74 116 94 54 52 50 23 236 233:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher last week after trading both sides of unchanged. Hurricane Dorian missed most of Florida and turned north last week to hit the Carolinas with a more direct blow before moving back out to sea. It is the high point in the hurricane season and forecasters were already watching a new system trying to form in the Atlantic. Chart patterns have turned mixed in response to the hurricane threat that appeared last week and the potential for more systems to form in the short-term. The weather in Florida had been good as the state has seen frequent showers and storms that have aided in development in the fruit. Inventories in Florida are still well above a year ago. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are as big as baseballs. Crop conditions are called good.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Heavy rain is possible in eastern coastal areas from the hurricane today. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to below normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September FCOJ contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 101.00, 98.00, and 97.00 September, with resistance at 105.00, 108.00, and 110.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 3, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 21,777 :
: Positions :
: 12,429 8,833 1,062 0 70 743 7,068 15 1,196 898 3,429 :
: Changes from: August 27, 2019 :
: -771 758 -60 0 -1 193 -1,007 -98 -1 -107 522 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 57.1 40.6 4.9 0.0 0.3 3.4 32.5 0.1 5.5 4.1 15.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 75 :
: 24 14 5 0 . . 19 . 17 . 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed slightly higher in choppy trading. London closed lower and made new lows for the move. The weekly chart formations show the potential for New York to carve out lows at this time. The market is starting to feel smaller crops from Brazil for the current harvest and is seeing projections for smaller crops next year as well. However, there are many who think the next crop will be good and could total 70 million bags or more. The Arabica growing areas are waiting for rains to restart flowering after some rains earlier in the year. Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year. It has been warm and dry at times, then the growing areas have seen some very heavy rains. Demand has been increasing over the last few years on the consumer level, but production potential is growing faster. Producers in Brazil have the best chances to make money at current prices as they have more mechanized farming. Vietnam has more mechanization, too. The rest of the Coffee origin world will struggle due to more difficult growing terrain and higher costs of production. The weaker production this year should help to hold prices from going much lower.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.327 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 95.35 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near normal temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers and storms mostly in the north. ICE said that 2 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 471 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 96.00, 94.00, and 91.00 December, and resistance is at 98.00, 101.00 and 103.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1270 and 1220 November. Support is at 1260, 1230, and 1200 November, and resistance is at 1300, 1340, and 1360 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 03, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 317,910
: Positions :
: 32,357 84,366 79,600 120,576 117,533 66,133 26,390 298,665 307,888: 19,245 10,022
: Changes from: August 27, 2019 (Change in open interest: 12,608) :
: -724 5,137 5,920 7,132 1,343 759 1,602 13,087 14,002: -478 -1,393
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.2 26.5 25.0 37.9 37.0 20.8 8.3 93.9 96.8: 6.1 3.2
: Total Traders: 460 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 139 127 146 124 100 44 23 393 324:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/03/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
144,927 84,823 60,194 23,092 8,932 1,818
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 58.5% 41.5% 15.9% 6.2% 1.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
154 52 39 17 6 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
4,578 47,466 9,917 3,998 622 9,647
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.2% 32.8% 6.8% 2.8% 0.4% 6.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
12 37 13 14 5 14
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,055 6,331
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.9% 4.4%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed lower for the week in both markets as ideas of big supplies and just average demand continue to circulate. London closed a little higher. World supplies still appear ample for the demand potential. Reports from India indicate that the country still has a large surplus of White Sugar that probably must be exported. India is reporting very good monsoon rains and production prospects for this year have definitely improved after a slow start to the season. The last couple of weeks have featured above average rains. Processing of Sugarcane in Brazil is slower and the pace of the crush is behind last year. Mills are refining mostly for ethanol right now as has been the case all season. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil is good enough and India has improved to support some of the big production ideas. The weather has been much more uneven in production areas from Russia into western Europe. Those areas had a very hot and dry start to the growing season. Better weather was seen in early August then it turned hot and dry again. These areas need more rain and some cooler weather to provide better conditions for the final development of the Sugar beets crops.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1180 and 1170 March. Support is at 1170, 1140, and 1110 March, and resistance is at 1220, 1240, and 1250 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 307.00 and 294.00 December. Support is at 306.00, 300.00, and 294.00 December, and resistance is at 312.00, 317.00, and 323.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 03, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,240,536
: Positions :
: 112,841 317,869 291,524 454,673 476,758 290,256 78,761 1,149,295 1,164,912: 91,242 75,624
: Changes from: August 27, 2019 (Change in open interest: 20,881) :
: 2,633 15,467 10,474 4,228 -8,954 -21 4,759 17,314 21,746: 3,567 -865
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.1 25.6 23.5 36.7 38.4 23.4 6.3 92.6 93.9: 7.4 6.1
: Total Traders: 285 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 66 81 101 83 78 34 22 243 232:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/03/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
113,883 63,113 34,675 9,102 6,518 2,423
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 55.4% 30.4% 8.0% 5.7% 2.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
149 53 41 10 6 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
15,442 51,936 7,836 5,533 854 5,385
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
13.6% 45.6% 6.9% 4.9% 0.7% 4.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
23 27 13 13 6 16
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,049 4,256
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.4% 3.7%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher in both markets in correction trading. The charts show mixed tendencies. New York appears to be forming a bear flag. London shows that a short-term corrective move higher is possible. The market acts weak as the next main crop harvest comes closer to reality in West Africa. The weather in West Africa is still a feature. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. Some showers in West Africa now help relieve stress on trees. Ideas are that the next crop will be good. The harvest will start in the Fall. Growing and harvesting conditions in Asia are also reported to be good. The harvest is ongoing amid showers, but good progress in the harvest is expected at this time. More and more Asian Cocoa has been staying at home and processed in Indonesia for export in the region. Demand in Asia has been growing and Indonesia has been eager to be the primary source of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.964 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 2,118 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2320 and 2420 December. Support is at 2230, 2210, and 2180 December, with resistance at 2290, 2300, and 2340 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1770 and 1970 December. Support is at 1740, 1710, and 1680 December, with resistance at 1780, 1800, and 1830 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 03, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 310,410
: Positions :
: 27,824 64,414 68,172 150,478 143,369 49,954 22,770 296,428 298,726: 13,982 11,683
: Changes from: August 27, 2019 (Change in open interest: 7,616) :
: -498 3,123 698 5,129 -427 700 1,570 6,030 4,963: 1,587 2,653
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.0 20.8 22.0 48.5 46.2 16.1 7.3 95.5 96.2: 4.5 3.8
: Total Traders: 226 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 66 64 85 45 39 34 16 193 166:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/03/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
350,445 219,798 224,021 32,752 32,937 27,103
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 62.7% 63.9% 9.3% 9.4% 7.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
140 52 46 13 7 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
20,926 19,086 18,601 3,043 950 25,019
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.0% 5.4% 5.3% 0.9% 0.3% 7.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
19 19 14 11 12 20
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,202 2,728
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.9% 0.8%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322