Marc Nemenoff gives his readers an insight into the decision making process of a professional trader and analyst with 35+ years of market experience. He covers the markets with which he has had the best success throughout his career with. Contact Mr. Nemenoff at (312) 264-4310
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 1’4 lower at 164’26, 10 Yr. Notes 13 lower at 131.25.00, and 5 Yr. Notes 7.50 lower at 120’27.00. The long Dec. 19/short Dec. 20 Eurodollar spread has started to narrow somewhat making a low of 65 points premium the Dec.20 and now at 60.5. I will still liquidate this spread, if and when, it trades at 50 points. Yields on treasuries have risen slightly in the past few sessions as the market seems to have shifted to risk on mode. The spread between the 2 Yr. and 10 Yr. Notes is no longer inverted with the 10 yr. now 1.5-2.0 basis points over the 2 Yr. Other events such as what is happening in England, Boris Johnson lost 3 votes within 48 hours putting his no-deal Brexit policy in jeopardy. Many conservatives crossed the aisle just about giving him a no confidence vote.The U.S./ China trade war still lingers as China will send some lower level negotiators here later this month. I feel that nothing will come of these negotiations. As I mentioned last week, I am still willing to play with the short side of the 5 Yr. Note on rallies, ideally above 120’12.00. I do not see the U.S. going the negative rate route but do feel the market has more than priced in another rate cut for this year as statistics are showing slower growth.
Grains: Dec. Corn is 2’0 higher at 360’4, Nov. Beans 0’2 higher at 875’6 and Dec. Wheat 5’0 higher at 466’0. I feel that Corn is bottoming out and will be a buyer on breaks. You might also consider buy some near the money calls.
Cattle: Live and Feeder Cattle have had an active week on both the upside and downside. Feeder Cattle are starting to show some life holding the 130.00 level basis Sept. Oct. LC has held well above 98.00. I remain a buyer in the 98.25 area.
Silver: Dec. Silver is currently 20 cents lower at 19.34. Fear of Brexit, Fear of trade war, fear of slower economic growth and lower % rates have all helped the recent $1.25 rally this week. If you are long multiple contracts, take partial profits as there is resistance above 19.50.
S&P’s: S&P’s are currently 26.00 higher at 2964.50 having rallied 20.00 overnight after trading through resistance of the 2945.00 area. Treat as a trading affair between 2906.00 and 2972.00
Currencies: I am on the sidelines watching events unfold in relation to Brexit.
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