About The Author

Bill Moore

William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337

DEC CORN

Well, here we are – right back at square #1 – after the slowest planting pace in recent memory!  So what happened to “yield drag” & “prevent acres”! Conventional wisdom says that production & yield loss have been offset by “demand destruction” from the trade war- negating any positive effect the planting issues would have had on corn prices!

FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  1. EXPORTS – Thur Exports were 856,000 (350-800) & Tues Inspections were 355,411 (500-800) –
  2. CROP CONDITIONS – good/excellent improved overall from 57 to 58%! Ill – 46 (49)   Ind – 33 (32)  Iowa – 62 (65)   Ohio – 34 (30) Dough 81 (93)      Dented 41(63)    Mature  6 (13)
  3. CROP PREDICTIONS – have been reduced the USDA’s highball Aug est – 169.5 The Pro-Farmer Tour estimated  163.3 but Allendale came in at 167.7
  4. US/CHINA STALLED TALKS – continue to give the mkt fits – as new tariffs were officially implemented on Sept 1 – but there is still conversation about another “face-to-face” sometime in Sept! We’re privately wondering why the two biggest economies in the world can’t grasp the “simple concept” that no one wins a trade war??
  5. EARLY FROST – gets a lot of lip service this year but until some sub-40 temps start appearing in the weather forecasts, the mkt won’t react much
  6. THE US DOLLAR – has been a bullish stalwart rallying nearly 400 points since Late June – not a friendly development for an already export-starved corn mkt
  7. GLOBAL ECONOMIC WORRIES – have already led to volatile “flight-to-quality” Rallies in gold & silver & severe breaks in the Dow Jones! President Trump Has to realize a continued trade war with China could severely jeopardize his Re-election chances!!

We’re too cheap – harvest will show very disappointing yields – a trade deal may become a political necessity – and remember LOW PRICES CURE LOW PRICES!!

NOV BEANS

Today the mkt is capitulating – reacting to diminishing hopes of a US/China trade resolution & higher yield estimates from private forecasters – in front of the USDA Sept Crop Report due out next Thur 9/12 at 11am!  As well, temps thru the end of Sept are forecast to be higher than normal – reducing the “early frost potential”! Strangely, the Macro Mkts are reacting more strongly to the overnite news that October face-to-face talks between US & China are scheduled – with the DJI up 400 & Gold down $34 & silver down 72 cents! Traders are justifiably wary of the Sept Report – given the bearish bombshell issued in August!

DEC WHT

The normal “weak-sister” Wht Mkt has stepped to the front of the class – rallying some 20 cents off its Tues lows – the welcome beneficiary of an active international export Mkt involving Turkey, Jordan, Japan & Saudi Arabia – as well as a falling US Dollar (200 points In 3 days)!  However, any sustained rally will probably need a “big assist” from Corn & Beans!

OCT CAT

The Oct Cat contract was struggling any way – amidst the best demand period of the year – before the packing plant fire – just about a month ago – decimated the mkt for a sudden $7.00 drop!  The huge downside gap (104.50 – 101.50) that was left is a bearish technical signal! Today, weak cash has forced the mkt to new lows! The mkt could really use some solid export demand – that would accompany any trade deal!

OCT HOGS

Oct Hogs have managed to rally $9.00 (59-68) just on the prospect of improved export business from China off a “done trade deal”! Of course, that deal seems to be a long way away – but nonetheless – the mkt feels it will become a reality. With China’s hog herd getting decimated by the ASF & with our surplus of pork, it seems to be a natural fit for the US & China to collaborate on a deal! The other positive is the sheer cheapness of the price level to which Oct Hogs have dropped – a fact not lost on value-conscious consumers!

 

141 W. Jackson Blvd. Suite 1340A, Chicago, IL 60604  |  (800) 769-7021  |  (855) 264-6673 (Direct)   |  www.pricegroup.com

A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – an Employee Owned Diversified Financial Services Firm. Orders must be entered via direct verbal communication with a representative of our firm. We cannot be held responsible for orders left in any other manner.  PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses. Member NIBA, NFA.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The PRICE Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.

To SUBSCRIBE to the AGMASTER please go to http://bit.ly/xIGR6x.

To Unsubscribe from the AGMASTER please send an email to offers@pricegroup.com.

 

View the AGMASTER Archives at http://blog.pricegroup.com/tag/agmaster.

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337