About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher and rallied after making new lows for the move on the weekly charts. It was a positive week but overall trends remain down. It has been a relentless move lower since April and the entire down move now extends to the early summer of 2018. Futures rallied on Friday as hurricane Dorian was forecast to move to the US Coast as a Category 4 hurricane. The system was initially headed to Florida but forecast tracts started to move the landfall potential further north along the coast into the Southeast. There was also a chance that the system would curve north over the ocean and move into the Carolinas. There is potential for Cotton losses in the Southeast no matter where the system lands. Bolls are starting to open now and the fiber could be colored or could the bolls could drop if there is enough wind. The system will create new questions about production potential. Conditions in the Texas Panhandle have improved with some recent showers and ideas are that production potential had been stabilized. Demand remains a real problem for the market as export sales overall have been poor. The world market remains quiet with very limited Chinese buying interest anywhere. Ideas are that USDA will be forced to lower export demand estimates in the September updates next week.
Overnight News: The Delta should be dry and Southeast should see scattered showers this week with biggest amounts in coastal areas from Dorian. Temperatures should be mostly near to below normal early this week and near to above normal later this week. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal after a cooler day today. The USDA average price is now 54.84 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 12,802 bales, from 12,802 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 5800, 5750, and 5720 December, with resistance of 5950, 6000, and 6020 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 27, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 285,829
: Positions :
: 32,822 82,385 69,973 89,174 99,380 78,698 19,776 270,666 271,514: 15,163 14,315
: Changes from: August 20, 2019 (Change in open interest: 10,050) :
: -1,252 728 5,986 5,118 2,821 517 697 10,369 10,232: -319 -181
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.5 28.8 24.5 31.2 34.8 27.5 6.9 94.7 95.0: 5.3 5.0
: Total Traders: 307 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 73 116 92 53 52 48 23 230 232:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher last week but closed about in the middle of the weekly range after some selling hit the market on Friday. Chart patterns have turned mixed in response to the hurricane threat that appeared last week. Hurricane Dorian is expected to hit the US as a Category 4 major storm and could damage crops where the system lands. It was originally expected to hit central and southern Florida but later forecasts indicated that the system could curve north and just give a glancing blow to the state. The weather in Florida had been tranquil as the state has seen frequent showers and storms that have aided in development in the fruit. Inventories in Florida are still 17% above a year ago. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are as big as baseballs. Crop conditions are called good. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Heavy rain is possible in eastern coastal areas from the hurricane. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 115.00 November. Support is at 101.00, 99.00, and 98.00 September, with resistance at 108.00, 110.00, and 113.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 27, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 22,327 :
: Positions :
: 13,199 8,075 1,122 0 71 550 8,075 113 1,197 1,006 2,906 :
: Changes from: August 20, 2019 :
: -453 3 -16 0 0 -54 -199 -138 17 -7 112 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 59.1 36.2 5.0 0.0 0.3 2.5 36.2 0.5 5.4 4.5 13.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 77 :
: 24 12 5 0 . . 22 . 17 . 10 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Both New York and London closed higher for the week after some choppy trading. The weekly chart formations show the potential for both markets to carve out lows at this time. The buy side of the market has been generally quiet but there has been some demand. Offers from origin are not that hard to find. The market is starting to feel smaller crops from Brazil and Vietnam for the current harvest. It will expect bigger crops next year. Some think that Brazil could producer over 70 million bags next year. Demand has been increasing over the last few years on the consumer level, but production potential is growing faster. Producers in Brazil have the best chances to make money at current prices as they have more mechanized farming. Vietnam has more mechanization, too. The rest of the Coffee origin world will struggle due to more difficult growing terrain and higher costs of production. The weaker production this year should help to hold prices from going much lower.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.343 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 95.68 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers and storms mostly in the north. ICE said that 4 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 378 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 95.00, 94.00, and 91.00 December, and resistance is at 98.00, 101.00 and 103.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1420 and 1490 November. Support is at 1300, 1290, and 1260 November, and resistance is at 1370, 1400, and 1430 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 27, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 305,301
: Positions :
: 33,080 79,229 73,679 113,445 116,190 65,374 24,788 285,578 293,886: 19,723 11,415
: Changes from: August 20, 2019 (Change in open interest: -3,930) :
: 858 -591 -58 -5,245 -3,802 2,023 2,052 -2,423 -2,399: -1,508 -1,531
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.8 26.0 24.1 37.2 38.1 21.4 8.1 93.5 96.3: 6.5 3.7
: Total Traders: 448 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 141 113 140 124 102 44 22 387 313:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/27/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
145,774 86,445 60,328 22,191 10,437 2,504
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 59.3% 41.4% 15.2% 7.2% 1.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
152 53 44 17 7 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
4,897 46,484 10,842 3,788 668 8,887
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.4% 31.9% 7.4% 2.6% 0.5% 6.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
10 35 11 12 8 15
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,221 5,625
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.3% 3.9%

DJ European Coffee Stockpiles Rose Again in June -ECF
By Joe Wallace
European coffee stockpiles continued to rise in June, in fresh evidence of bountiful supplies that have pushed prices close to their lowest level in over a decade.
Inventories at the continent’s six main coffee ports rose to 721,590 metric tons, the European Coffee Federation said on Thursday. That represents an increase of 15,367 tons, or 2.2%, from May.
The ECF said stocks of coffee rose at Antwerp, Hamburg, Le Havre and Trieste but fell in Genoa and Barcelona.
Booming coffee supplies and signs of weakening demand have weighed on global prices for much of 2019, pushing benchmark arabica futures down by 5% to 97 cents a pound.
Many traders are betting that prices will go lower still.
As of Aug. 20, hedge funds and other speculative investors held 78,416 short positions in arabica futures and options, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That’s more than double the 31,111 long positions that they held.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower for the week in both markets as ideas of big supplies and just average demand continue to circulate. World supplies still appear ample for the demand potential. Reports from India indicate that the country still has a large surplus of White Sugar that probably must be exported. India is reporting below normal monsoon rains, but rains have been much better lately. The last couple of weeks have featured above average rains. There are concerns that the Indian monsoon will not be strong this year and that Sugarcane production could be hurt. Processing of Sugarcane in Brazil is slower and the pace of the crush is behind last year. Mills are refining mostly for ethanol right now as has been the case all season. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil is good enough and India has improved to support some of the big production ideas. The weather has been much more uneven in production areas from Russia into western Europe. Those areas had a very hot and dry start to the growing season. Better weather was seen in early August then it turned hot and dry again. These areas need more rain and some cooler weather to provide better conditions for the final development of the Sugar beets crops.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1220, 1200, and 1180 March. Support is at 1200, 1170, and 1140 March, and resistance is at 1230, 1260, and 1270 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 307.00 and 294.00 December. Support is at 309.00, 306.00, and 303.00 December, and resistance is at 317.00, 323.00, and 331.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 27, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,219,655
: Positions :
: 110,207 302,402 281,050 450,446 485,712 290,277 74,002 1,131,981 1,143,167: 87,675 76,489
: Changes from: August 20, 2019 (Change in open interest: 36,635) :
: -1,642 16,650 12,334 22,871 7,742 1,504 -733 35,067 35,993: 1,568 642
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.0 24.8 23.0 36.9 39.8 23.8 6.1 92.8 93.7: 7.2 6.3
: Total Traders: 276 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 60 80 95 82 76 34 20 235 222:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/27/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
114,264 64,176 36,695 8,839 5,932 3,219
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 56.2% 32.1% 7.7% 5.2% 2.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
154 57 41 13 6 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
15,448 52,647 7,771 5,521 380 4,302
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
13.5% 46.1% 6.8% 4.8% 0.3% 3.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
20 30 12 15 4 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,987 3,317
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.4% 2.9%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower in both markets with the biggest losses seen in New York. London closed just slightly lower for the week. The market acts weak as the next main crop harvest comes closer to reality in West Africa.. The weather in West Africa is still a feature. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. Some showers in West Africa now help relieve stress on trees. Ideas are that the next crop will be good. The harvest will start in the Fall. Growing and harvesting conditions in Asia are also reported to be good. The harvest is ongoing amid showers, but good progress in the harvest is expected at this time. More and more Asian Cocoa has been staying at home and processed in Indonesia for export in the region. Demand in Asia has been growing and Indonesia has been eager to be the primary source of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.002 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 2,118 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2160 and 2100 December. Support is at 2180, 2170, and 2140 December, with resistance at 2220, 2280, and 2300 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1660 and 1620 December. Support is at 1680, 1670, and 1640 December, with resistance at 1720, 1730, and 1750 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 27, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 302,793
: Positions :
: 28,321 61,292 67,474 145,348 143,797 49,254 21,200 290,398 293,763: 12,395 9,031
: Changes from: August 20, 2019 (Change in open interest: 11,340) :
: -220 3,714 5,083 3,399 278 2,937 2,700 11,199 11,775: 141 -436
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.4 20.2 22.3 48.0 47.5 16.3 7.0 95.9 97.0: 4.1 3.0
: Total Traders: 232 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 65 72 85 43 40 34 15 190 175:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/27/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
366,737 231,562 243,459 31,492 32,823 26,222
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 63.1% 66.4% 8.6% 9.0% 7.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
143 53 43 14 7 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
23,669 13,314 18,276 2,940 821 29,427
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.5% 3.6% 5.0% 0.8% 0.2% 8.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
21 16 15 12 12 23
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,149 2,395
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.9% 0.7%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322