About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 30
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL September Sep. 03, 2019 611 Aug 28, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL September Sep. 03, 2019 58 Aug 02, 2019
ROUGH RICE September Sep. 03, 2019 410 Aug 29, 2019
CORN September Sep. 03, 2019 400 Jun 27, 2019
KC HRW WHEAT September Sep. 03, 2019 1000 Jul 31, 2019
SOYBEAN September Sep. 03, 2019 866 Aug 28, 2019
WHEAT September Sep. 03, 2019 440 Jul 16, 2019

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were a little lower despite stronger export sales. Ideas of weaker overseas demand and the higher US Dollar hurt the price action. Spring Wheat harvest is moving slowly and is expanding into Canada. That usually means that the seasonal low is not that far away. Those countries should continue to do the business as they are saying they will compete for sales to lower potential ending stocks levels. The weekly charts show that futures are getting oversold and that a bottom is possible. Upside price potential is thought to be somewhat limited as there is a lot of Wheat available to the world market and the US Dollar has been stronger to keep US prices on the defensive. Harvests in the northern half of the world are coming to an end with Russia and Europe offering. But, the US is also seeing increased business on the export side and reports indicate that demand for Wheat as feed is strong inside the US.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered and light showers on Wednesday, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers and storms today, then mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather but showers are possible in Saskatchewan late this week. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 469, 466, and 462 December, with resistance at 481, 483, and 486 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 398, 395, and 392 December, with resistance at 410, 414, and 425 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 501 December. Support is at 500, 497, and 494 December, and resistance is at 511, 514, and 518 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher on strong export sales including sales to Iraq and on more talk that the US and China could be closer to a trade agreement than originally thought. US Rice hopes to be included in any agreement with China as the industry has worked years to open the market. It had finally succeeded when the tariff war hit, so the news was considered great for the market. The weekly crop progress report showed that the harvest is active in Texas and Louisiana and is just getting started in the other states. Condition ratings were good. Field yields have been average at best in the south. It is too early to know much about yields farther to the north. Harvest progress in the north will be slow due to the late planting from the very wet Spring. Export demand in general has been solid this year and should continue generally strong with no real competition noted from South America for sales in the western hemisphere.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather unto some showers appear late in the weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1211 November. Support is at 1177, 1174, and 1155 November, with resistance at 1209, 1224, and 1253 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher on hopes for better demand. The export sales report was improved and President Trump tweeted that a big package of support for ethanol and corn demand was coming. He gave no details. Export sales of Corn had been very slow and might not improve dramatically anytime soon if South America can keep it currencies weaker. However, the improved sales were most welcome. The Real has been weakening on domestic political and economic problems in Brazil and the Peso has been weak as Argentina has had another tough time economically. The lack of export and domestic demand has really hurt the US Corn market this year and demand prospects are not improving even with the weaker prices. Demand for ethanol is becoming a problem after the Trump administration allowed waivers for 31 smaller refineries last week. The administration is now looking for alternative ways to increase Corn consumption for ethanol but has not yet found a good way out. Ethanol manufacturers are starting to reduce operations due to these and previous waivers that have hurt demand and prices. Feed demand has been a problem for the last year and should continue to be a problem despite high animal numbers in the US as feed interests look to cheaper alternatives.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 369, 366, and 364 December, and resistance is at 381, 388, and 393 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 266, 263, and 262 December, and resistance is at 271, 273, and 277 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were mixed to higher, with Soybean Meal lower and the other markets mostly higher. The trade is still worried about production potential and talk keeps centering on the lack of pods on many of the Soybeans plants. Recent rains have improved conditions but the crop still has a long way to go to maturity and needs warmer temperatures than it is getting in most areas. Basis levels at the Gulf were also under pressure as the US needs to find new export demand. Ideas are that Trump does not really have the makings of a deal with China and some suggest that he might not be able to find one anytime in the near future. The US has been able to sell to other countries to help on the demand side, but now the currencies are weaker in South America and prices there will be that much more attractive. Basis levels in the interior US are firm as processors appear to need supplies. The US needs to keep working to find new demand and this will be hard with the uncertain political and economic climate here and around the world as the weekly export sales report was not strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 887 and 907 November. Support is at 866, 835, and 853 November, and resistance is at 875, 882, and 897 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 293.00, 291.00, and 289.00 October, and resistance is at 298.00, 300.00, and 302.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2800, 2780 and 2740 October. Support is at 2800, 2770, and 2730 October, with resistance at 2870, 2900, and 2930 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower on reports of active harvesting. Reports from the field indicate good yields. Cold weather is possible in the next week and there is talk that a frost of freeze might be done. Palm Oil was a little higher. The market appears to be in a short-term and shallow correction now. Export data from the private sources has been positive so far this month. Buying came as the China-US trade war is causing China to consider dropping quotas on world vegetable oils imports. The market still expects limited upside potential, but the charts show that the market has broken out to the upside. There are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand. Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 443.00 and 436.00 November. Support is at 445.00, 442.00, and 440.00 November, with resistance at 450.00, 453.00, and 456.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2140 and 2090 November. Support is at 2190, 2150, and 2120 November, with resistance at 2260, 2270, and 2300 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry today and tomorrow, a few showers on Saturday, then dry again. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August +38 Sep +165 Sep +60 Sep +33 Nov +12 Aug N/A
September +38 Sep +74 Sep +25 Nov
October +37 Dec +75 Dec +25 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 29
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Aug. 29 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Thursday, August 29.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 421.11 -26.79 Nov 2019 up 3.71
Track Thunder Bay 454.50 7.00 Nov 2019 dn 0.40
Track Vancouver 462.50 15.00 Nov 2019 dn 0.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 30
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 540.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 540.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 542.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 542.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 560.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 545.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 545.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 547.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 547.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 565.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 557.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 450.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 2,170 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 155.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2030)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 30
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 147,802 lots, or 5.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 3,440 3,442 3,414 3,438 3,435 3,429 -6 4,520 12,864
Nov-19 3,486 3,486 3,486 3,486 3,484 3,486 2 286
Jan-20 3,534 3,537 3,495 3,529 3,523 3,519 -4 133,082 172,344
Mar-20 – – – 3,544 3,544 3,544 0 0 26
May-20 3,720 3,720 3,697 3,717 3,716 3,711 -5 10,198 42,530
Jul-20 – – – 3,717 3,717 3,717 0 0 12
Corn
Turnover: 1,019,518 lots, or 19.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 1,820 1,825 1,807 1,824 1,831 1,815 -16 39,834 56,852
Nov-19 1,851 1,858 1,835 1,843 1,863 1,845 -18 51,438 363,870
Jan-20 1,886 1,888 1,864 1,871 1,893 1,875 -18 853,016 1,165,330
Mar-20 1,903 1,907 1,888 1,895 1,915 1,894 -21 428 3,580
May-20 1,946 1,946 1,923 1,933 1,952 1,934 -18 74,500 231,202
Jul-20 1,952 1,961 1,938 1,946 1,966 1,944 -22 302 1,324
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,927,558 lots, or 56.56 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 3,008 3,008 2,959 2,979 2,993 2,988 -5 23,504 12,296
Nov-19 3,010 3,038 2,993 2,994 3,031 3,015 -16 126,002 291,128
Dec-19 3,012 3,018 2,900 2,972 3,012 2,989 -23 12,668 2,546
Jan-20 2,970 2,970 2,932 2,935 2,975 2,953 -22 1,524,400 2,193,106
Mar-20 2,881 2,894 2,865 2,871 2,902 2,881 -21 194 764
May-20 2,784 2,784 2,746 2,748 2,778 2,765 -13 240,592 636,128
Jul-20 2,777 2,777 2,750 2,750 2,780 2,759 -21 188 974
Aug-20 2,854 2,854 2,740 2,777 2,778 2,782 4 10 28
Palm Oil
Turnover: 701,948 lots, or 33.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 4,740 4,740 4,630 4,638 4,750 4,672 -78 6,722 11,282
Oct-19 – – – 4,704 4,782 4,704 -78 0 12
Nov-19 – – – 4,772 4,850 4,772 -78 0 12
Dec-19 – – – 4,778 4,856 4,778 -78 0 6
Jan-20 4,838 4,848 4,758 4,774 4,866 4,804 -62 640,502 491,950
Feb-20 4,878 4,948 4,878 4,914 4,970 4,912 -58 50 24
Mar-20 – – – 4,946 5,004 4,946 -58 0 2
Apr-20 – – – 4,952 5,010 4,952 -58 0 2
May-20 4,980 5,016 4,940 4,950 5,022 4,976 -46 54,672 71,846
Jun-20 – – – 5,048 5,094 5,048 -46 0 2
Jul-20 – – – 5,070 5,116 5,070 -46 0 2
Aug-20 5,094 5,094 5,094 5,094 5,120 5,094 -26 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 994,822 lots, or 60.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 6,020 6,022 5,912 5,930 5,998 5,962 -36 8,492 46,852
Nov-19 – – – 6,164 6,164 6,164 0 0 4
Dec-19 6,034 6,080 6,020 6,076 6,086 6,054 -32 38 36
Jan-20 6,106 6,148 6,042 6,056 6,122 6,092 -30 901,668 927,458
Mar-20 6,154 6,186 6,154 6,178 6,138 6,182 44 82 78
May-20 6,090 6,102 6,004 6,014 6,092 6,060 -32 84,542 205,354
Jul-20 – – – 6,180 6,212 6,180 -32 0 4
Aug-20 – – – 6,314 6,346 6,314 -32 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322