About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Aug 29
For the week ended Aug 22, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 661.7 0.0 11083.3 8971.5 5183.3 17.1
hrw 225.3 0.0 4260.4 2576.8 1519.2 0.0
srw 72.4 0.0 1384.7 1173.3 696.6 12.4
hrs 235.9 0.0 3040.3 2724.7 1700.3 4.8
white 128.1 0.0 1953.2 2279.5 970.7 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 444.6 217.3 296.5 0.0
corn -2.5 858.9 50100.7 60541.3 1558.6 5541.1
soybeans 95.2 353.1 48713.3 58796.7 3721.2 5614.3
soy meal 52.6 245.4 11977.9 12429.7 1605.7 1456.4
soy oil 9.2 1.0 888.5 1061.0 149.6 25.2
upland cotton 146.0 23.2 8084.7 8661.5 7222.8 463.1
Pima cotton 4.9 0.0 153.6 247.8 124.3 0.0
sorghum 0.3 0.0 1725.1 5088.5 85.0 10.2
barley 0.2 0.0 56.9 52.0 45.8 0.0
rice 128.0 0.0 930.1 542.2 658.5 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were a little lower despite estimates from StatsCan of less production in Canada. Ideas of weaker overseas demand and the higher US Dollar hurt the price action. The prices Egypt paid this week were just slightly lower than the last tender and US prices are closer to world values now and might be able to compete in certain markets. North Africa is still hard as those countries are very close to Europe and Russia and the US is far away. Spring Wheat harvest is moving slowly and is expanding into Canada. That usually means that the seasonal low is not that far away. Those countries should continue to do the business as they are saying they will compete for sales to lower potential ending stocks levels. The weekly charts show that futures are getting oversold and that a bottom is possible. Upside price potential is thought to be somewhat limited as there is a lot of Wheat available to the world market and the US Dollar has been stronger to keep US prices on the defensive. Harvests in the northern half of the world are coming to an end with Russia and Europe offering. But, the US is also seeing increased business on the export side and reports indicate that demand for Wheat as feed is strong inside the US.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered and light showers on Wednesday, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers and storms today, then mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather but showers are possible in Saskatchewan late this week. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 466, 463, and 457 September, with resistance at 480, 483, and 496 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 386, 384, and 381 September, with resistance at 396, 403, and 408 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 485, 464, and 407 September. Support is at 485, 482, and 479 September, and resistance is at 496, 503, and 505 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher on some talk that the US and China could be closer to a trade agreement than originally thought. There was more talk of a potential trade agreement with China but also Japan. Rice was not part of the agreement in principle with Japan but the industry is pushing to get Rice added. US Rice hopes to be included in any agreement with China as well as the industry has worked years to open the market. It had finally succeeded when the tariff war hit, so the news was considered great for the market. The weekly crop progress report showed that the harvest is active in Texas and Louisiana and is just getting started in the other states. Condition ratings were good. Field yields have been average at best in the south. It is too early to know much about yields farther to the north. Harvest progress in the north will be slow due to the late planting from the very wet Spring. Export demand in general has been solid this year and should continue generally strong with no real competition noted from South America for sales in the western hemisphere.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather unto some showers appear late in the weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1182 and 1207 September. Support is at 1127, 1124, and 1108 September, with resistance at 1139, 1148, and 1157 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher on hopes for better demand. Ag Secretary Perdue said yesterday that the administration is hard at work looking for alternatives to increase the use of corn-based Ethanol and other biofuels. The market started to move higher on the news and found some short covering on the way up. EIA reports of better Ethanol production and consumption was also bullish for Corn. The US Dollar was higher. Export sales of Corn have been very slow and might not improve anytime soon if South America can keep it currencies weaker. The Real has been weakening on domestic political and economic problems in Brazil and the Peso has been weak as Argentina has had another tough time economically. The lack of export and domestic demand has really hurt the US Corn market this year and demand prospects are not improving even with the weaker prices. Demand for ethanol is becoming a problem after the Trump administration allowed waivers for 31 smaller refineries last week. The administration is now looking for alternative ways to increase Corn consumption for ethanol but has not yet found a good way out. Ethanol manufacturers are starting to reduce operations due to these and previous waivers that have hurt demand and prices. Feed demand has been a problem for the last year and should continue to be a problem despite high animal numbers in the US as feed interests look to cheaper alternatives.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 360, 356, and 353 September, and resistance is at 366, 370, and 371 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 242 September. Support is at 252, 249, and 246 September, and resistance is at 259, 261, and 265 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher on hopes for better demand after USDA Secretary Perdue said that the government was hard at work to find alternatives for the use of bio fuels. Recent rains have improved conditions but the crop still has a long way to go to maturity and needs warmer temperatures than it is getting in most areas. Basis levels at the Gulf were also under pressure as the US needs to find new export demand. Ideas are that Trump does not really have the makings of a deal with China and some suggest that he might not be able to find one anytime in the near future. The US has been able to sell to other countries to help on the demand side, but now the currencies are weaker in South America and prices there will be that much more attractive. Basis levels in the interior US are firm as processors appear to need supplies. But the US needs to keep working to find new demand and this will be hard with the uncertain political and economic climate here and around the world.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 835 and 815 September. Support is at 840, 834, and 830 September, and resistance is at 855, 864, and 869 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 291.00, 289.00, and 287.00 September, and resistance is at 295.00, 298.00, and 300.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2750 and 2660 September. Support is at 2760, 2720, and 2700 September, with resistance at 2840, 2860, and 2890 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher on the stronger price action in Chicago and in reaction to the bullish StatsCan production ideas. Their estimates were below trade estimates and a surprise to the market. Reports from the field indicate good yields. Cold weather is possible in the next week and there is talk that a frost of freeze might be done. Palm Oil was a little lower on what was called long liquidation. The market appears to be in a short-term and shallow correction now. Export data from the private sources has been positive so far this month. Buying came as the China-US trade war is causing China to consider dropping quotas on world vegetable oils imports. The market still expects limited upside potential, but the charts show that the market has broken out to the upside. There are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand. Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 443.00 and 436.00 November. Support is at 445.00, 442.00, and 440.00 November, with resistance at 450.00, 453.00, and 456.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2230, 2190, and 2150 November, with resistance at 2270, 2300, and 2310 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry today and tomorrow, a few showers on Saturday, then dry again. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August +36 Sep +165 Sep +50 Sep +36 Nov +12 Aug N/A
September +37 Sep +74 Sep +26 Nov
October +36 Dec +77 Dec +25 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 28
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Aug. 28 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Wednesday, August 28.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 417.40 -29.00 Nov 2019 dn 2.00
Track Thunder Bay 454.90 7.00 Nov 2019 up 1.50
Track Vancouver 462.90 15.00 Nov 2019 up 1.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 29
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 540.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 542.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 542.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 542.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 562.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 545.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 547.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 547.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 547.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 567.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 560.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 452.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 2,180 -00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 156.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2180)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 29
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 111,312 lots, or 3.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 3,431 3,448 3,428 3,442 3,435 3,435 0 2,928 13,520
Nov-19 3,476 3,489 3,476 3,482 3,477 3,484 7 26 284
Jan-20 3,517 3,537 3,513 3,530 3,523 3,523 0 98,476 172,032
Mar-20 3,556 3,556 3,532 3,546 3,528 3,544 16 6 26
May-20 3,708 3,725 3,706 3,724 3,704 3,716 12 9,876 41,902
Jul-20 – – – 3,717 3,717 3,717 0 0 12
Corn
Turnover: 420,214 lots, or 7.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 1,829 1,838 1,825 1,826 1,834 1,831 -3 13,906 66,840
Nov-19 1,870 1,870 1,854 1,854 1,866 1,863 -3 29,624 365,386
Jan-20 1,894 1,899 1,885 1,885 1,894 1,893 -1 356,040 1,154,836
Mar-20 1,919 1,919 1,909 1,909 1,915 1,915 0 38 3,408
May-20 1,955 1,958 1,945 1,946 1,954 1,952 -2 20,488 226,016
Jul-20 1,972 1,972 1,962 1,962 1,967 1,966 -1 118 1,218
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,172,038 lots, or 64.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 2,961 3,021 2,953 3,018 2,954 2,993 39 35,030 29,098
Nov-19 3,002 3,062 2,991 3,052 2,988 3,031 43 106,890 272,588
Dec-19 2,984 3,035 2,975 3,028 2,980 3,012 32 7,946 2,548
Jan-20 2,960 2,996 2,943 2,987 2,953 2,975 22 1,767,838 2,264,230
Mar-20 2,888 2,918 2,888 2,908 2,880 2,902 22 78 800
May-20 2,769 2,792 2,760 2,785 2,763 2,778 15 253,998 608,980
Jul-20 2,768 2,790 2,763 2,782 2,768 2,780 12 258 878
Aug-20 – – – 2,778 2,778 2,778 0 0 26
Palm Oil
Turnover: 646,136 lots, or 31.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 4,752 4,786 4,712 4,740 4,748 4,750 2 5,394 14,868
Oct-19 4,782 4,782 4,782 4,782 4,866 4,782 -84 2 12
Nov-19 4,920 4,920 4,780 4,780 4,856 4,850 -6 4 12
Dec-19 – – – 4,856 4,856 4,856 0 0 6
Jan-20 4,902 4,914 4,826 4,852 4,886 4,866 -20 598,128 501,468
Feb-20 – – – 4,970 4,970 4,970 0 0 16
Mar-20 – – – 5,004 5,004 5,004 0 0 2
Apr-20 – – – 5,010 5,010 5,010 0 0 2
May-20 5,046 5,066 4,982 5,012 5,034 5,022 -12 42,608 72,362
Jun-20 – – – 5,094 5,094 5,094 0 0 2
Jul-20 – – – 5,116 5,128 5,116 -12 0 2
Aug-20 – – – 5,120 5,096 5,120 24 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 794,896 lots, or 48.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 6,006 6,026 5,982 6,004 6,010 5,998 -12 9,944 53,418
Nov-19 – – – 6,164 6,164 6,164 0 0 4
Dec-19 6,088 6,110 6,070 6,110 6,164 6,086 -78 8 44
Jan-20 6,128 6,154 6,092 6,130 6,118 6,122 4 716,298 956,100
Mar-20 6,118 6,160 6,118 6,160 6,162 6,138 -24 4 24
May-20 6,102 6,124 6,068 6,100 6,098 6,092 -6 68,642 202,190
Jul-20 – – – 6,212 6,218 6,212 -6 0 4
Aug-20 – – – 6,346 6,346 6,346 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322