About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Statistics Canada Crop Production Report – Aug. 28
WINNIPEG – Canada 2019/20 grain/oilseed production estimates. The
survey was conducted from July 4 to Aug. 5, 2019. Source: Statistics
Canada. Production in thousand metric tons, yield in kg/hectare, area
harvested in thousand hectares.
Harvested indic Production
area yield 2019-20 2018-19
AUG FINAL
barley 2,700.7 3,570 9,643.7 8,379.7
edible beans 141.7 2,595 367.8 341.1
canary seed 57.9 1,207 69.9 117.8
canola 8,363.0 2,206 18,452.7 20,342.6
chickpeas 154.5 1,626 251.3 311.3
corn 1,463.1 9,300 13,606.1 13,884.8
faba beans 26.0 3,465 92.0 91.3
flaxseed 367.8 1,518 558.2 492.4
lentils 1,501.3 1,588 2,383.6 2,092.1
mixed grains 65.7 3,009 197.5 194.7
mustard 157.3 993 156.1 173.6
oats 1,158.0 3,413 3,952.6 3,436.0
dry peas 1,721.5 2,630 4,528.3 3,580.7
fall rye* 97.4 2,915 283.9 236.4
soybeans 2,293.8 2,704 6,203.5 7,266.6
sugar beets 15.9 71,757 1,141.2 1,376.7
sunflower seed 21.9 2,269 49.6 57.3
triticale 21.8 2,371 51.7 62.2
all wheat 9,775.6 3,197 31,251.2 32,201.1
durum wheat 1,928.5 2,292 4,419.5 5,744.8
spring wheat 7,474.8 3,359 25,108.0 23,942.4
winter wheat* 372.3 4,633 1,724.6 2,513.9
*Fall rye and winter wheat numbers represent what was remaining
after winterkill.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-
9084)

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were a little higher as Egypt bought Wheat from Russia and Europe. The prices paid were just slightly lower than the last tender and US prices are closer to world values now and might be able to compete in certain markets. North Africa is still hard as those countries are very close to Europe and Russia and the US is far away. Spring Wheat harvest is moving slowly and is expanding into Canada. That usually means that the seasonal low is not that far away. The weekly charts show that futures are getting oversold and that a bottom is possible. Upside price potential is thought to be somewhat limited as there is a lot of Wheat available to the world market and the US Dollar has been stronger to keep US prices on the defensive. Harvests in the northern half of the world are coming to an end with Russia and Europe offering. But, the US is also seeing increased business on the export side and reports indicate that demand for Wheat as feed is strong inside the US. Wheat prices could turn sideways or could stage a short-term rally in the near future.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered and light showers on Wednesday, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers and storms today, then mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather but showers are possible in Saskatchewan late this week. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 470, 463, and 457 September, with resistance at 480, 483, and 496 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 388, 384, and 381 September, with resistance at 396, 403, and 408 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 485, 464, and 407 September. Support is at 491, 488, and 485 September, and resistance is at 503, 505, and 508 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower in consolidation trading. It was not a high volume day. There was more talk of a potential trade agreement with China but also Japan. Rice was not part of the agreement in principle with Japan but the industry is pushing to get Rice added. US Rice hopes to be included in any agreement with China as well as the industry has worked years to open the market. It had finally succeeded when the tariff war hit, so the news was considered great for the market. The weekly charts show that there is some significant support near the lows of last week, and these held and caused some speculative short covering. The weekly crop progress report showed that the harvest is active in Texas and Louisiana and is just getting started in the other states. Condition ratings were good. Field yields have been average at best in the south. It is too early to know much about yields farther to the north. Harvest progress in the north will be slow due to the late planting from the very wet Spring. Export demand in general has been solid this year and should continue generally strong with no real competition noted from South America for sales in the western hemisphere. Demand from other areas such as the Middle East will be more problematic as Asia can also service this market.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers each day. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1101, 1087, and 1072 September, with resistance at 1124, 1130, and 1139 September.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Aug 28
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 14.40 9.19 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.06 9.42 0.00
Brokens 8.69 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower as South American currencies turned lower and hurt demand ideas for US Corn in the world market. Export sales of Corn have been very slow and might not improve anytime soon if South America can keep it currencies weaker. The Real has been weakening on domestic political and economic problems in Brazil and the Peso has been weak as Argentina has had another tough time economically. The lack of export and domestic demand has really hurt the US Corn market this year and demand prospects are not improving even with the weaker prices. Demand for ethanol is becoming a problem after the Trump administration allowed waivers for 31 smaller refineries last week. The administration is now looking for alternative ways to increase Corn consumption for ethanol but has not yet found a good way out. Ethanol manufacturers are starting to reduce operations due to these and previous waivers that have hurt demand and prices. Feed demand has been a problem for the last year and should continue to be a problem despite high animal numbers in the US as feed interests look to cheaper alternatives.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 357, 353, and 350 September, and resistance is at 364, 366, and 370 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 242 September. Support is at 252, 249, and 246 September, and resistance is at 259, 261, and 265 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower after USDA showed higher than expected crop ratings in its reports on Monday night. Recent rains have improved conditions but the crop still has a long way to go to maturity and needs warmer temperatures than it is getting in most areas. Basis levels ar the Gulf were also under pressure as the US needs to find new export demand. Ideas are that Trump does not really have the makings of a deal with China and some suggest that he might not be able to find one anytime in the near future. The US has been able to sell to other countries to help on the demand side, but now the currencies are weaker in South America and prices there will be that much more attractive. Basis levels in the interior US are firm as processors appear to need supplies. But the US needs to keep working to find new demand and this will be hard with the uncertain political and economic climate here and around the world.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 835 and 815 September. Support is at 842, 834, and 830 September, and resistance is at 855, 864, and 869 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 287.00, 281.00, and 279.00 September. Support is at 289.00, 287.00, and 284.00 September, and resistance is at 293.00, 295.00, and 298.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2750 and 2660 September. Support is at 2800, 2760, and 2720 September, with resistance at 2840, 2860, and 2890 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower o Chicago and as the harvest is underway. Reports from the field indicate good yields. The market was waiting on new production data from StatsCan this morning and most expected Canola production to be reduced from last year. The average trade guess for Canola production is 18.9 million tons. Production last year was 20.34 million tons. Cold weather is possible in the next week and there is talk that a frost of freeze might be done. Palm Oil was a little higher. Export data from the private sources has been positive so far this month. Buying came as the China-US trade war is causing China to consider dropping quotas on world vegetable oils imports. The market still expects limited upside potential, but the charts show that the market has broken out to the upside. There are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand. Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 443.00 and 436.00 November. Support is at 445.00, 442.00, and 440.00 November, with resistance at 450.00, 453.00, and 456.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2230, 2190, and 2150 November, with resistance at 2270, 2300, and 2310 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry after some showers and storms move from west to east today. Temperatures should be near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August +36 Sep +165 Sep +50 Sep +36 Nov +12 Aug N/A
September +36 Sep +70 Sep +24 Nov
October +36 Dec +75 Dec +22 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 27
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Aug. 27 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Tuesday, August 27.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 419.40 -29.00 Nov 2019 dn 1.50
Track Thunder Bay 453.40 7.00 Nov 2019 dn 2.00
Track Vancouver 461.40 15.00 Nov 2019 dn 2.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 545.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 545.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 547.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 547.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 570.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 550.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 550.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 552.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 552.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 575.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 565.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 455.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 2,200 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 157.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2110)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 120,328 lots, or 4.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 3,430 3,451 3,422 3,431 3,453 3,435 -18 3,586 14,210
Nov-19 3,472 3,486 3,472 3,478 3,485 3,477 -8 10 272
Jan-20 3,516 3,539 3,508 3,517 3,538 3,523 -15 105,752 175,358
Mar-20 – – – 3,528 3,528 3,528 0 0 26
May-20 3,700 3,717 3,688 3,711 3,709 3,704 -5 10,976 41,026
Jul-20 3,734 3,734 3,701 3,701 3,684 3,717 33 4 12
Corn
Turnover: 656,300 lots, or 12.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 1,840 1,849 1,829 1,833 1,843 1,834 -9 17,152 75,350
Nov-19 1,875 1,875 1,859 1,867 1,874 1,866 -8 46,230 364,458
Jan-20 1,901 1,901 1,888 1,897 1,903 1,894 -9 566,372 1,127,734
Mar-20 1,924 1,924 1,910 1,913 1,930 1,915 -15 56 3,408
May-20 1,958 1,959 1,948 1,954 1,963 1,954 -9 26,376 224,536
Jul-20 1,973 1,974 1,964 1,972 1,984 1,967 -17 114 1,198
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,756,532 lots, or 51.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 2,939 2,974 2,929 2,962 2,948 2,954 6 36,848 41,638
Nov-19 2,968 3,008 2,966 2,997 2,977 2,988 11 69,580 264,210
Dec-19 2,954 2,998 2,951 2,985 2,959 2,980 21 4,758 2,060
Jan-20 2,933 2,969 2,932 2,957 2,952 2,953 1 1,468,420 2,234,978
Mar-20 2,875 2,890 2,870 2,890 2,887 2,880 -7 40 804
May-20 2,749 2,776 2,747 2,769 2,773 2,763 -10 176,812 607,522
Jul-20 2,760 2,776 2,758 2,768 2,769 2,768 -1 74 876
Aug-20 – – – 2,778 2,778 2,778 0 0 26
Palm Oil
Turnover: 614,484 lots, or 30.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 4,774 4,784 4,702 4,760 4,836 4,748 -88 13,130 17,956
Oct-19 4,796 4,936 4,796 4,936 4,904 4,866 -38 4 12
Nov-19 – – – 4,856 4,856 4,856 0 0 12
Dec-19 – – – 4,856 4,856 4,856 0 0 6
Jan-20 4,870 4,918 4,844 4,898 4,928 4,886 -42 564,480 510,778
Feb-20 4,970 4,980 4,964 4,980 4,950 4,970 20 6 16
Mar-20 – – – 5,004 4,984 5,004 20 0 2
Apr-20 – – – 5,010 4,990 5,010 20 0 2
May-20 5,020 5,058 4,994 5,046 5,082 5,034 -48 36,864 70,164
Jun-20 – – – 5,094 5,094 5,094 0 0 2
Jul-20 – – – 5,128 5,128 5,128 0 0 2
Aug-20 – – – 5,096 5,096 5,096 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 792,440 lots, or 48.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 5,992 6,036 5,972 6,000 6,098 6,010 -88 10,194 58,446
Nov-19 – – – 6,164 6,188 6,164 -24 0 4
Dec-19 – – – 6,164 6,164 6,164 0 0 48
Jan-20 6,140 6,146 6,076 6,124 6,190 6,118 -72 724,514 951,770
Mar-20 6,164 6,164 6,162 6,162 6,218 6,162 -56 8 24
May-20 6,110 6,124 6,064 6,100 6,166 6,098 -68 57,724 196,794
Jul-20 – – – 6,218 6,218 6,218 0 0 4
Aug-20 – – – 6,346 6,346 6,346 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322