Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was lower in early trading due to the trade war with China. It was able to recover a large part of the losses when it was learned that the US and China were talking and that an agreement was still possible in the relatively near future. A stronger stock market, also rallying on the trade news, helped. Export demand was down last week after the big sales to Bangladesh the previous week. Crop condition ratings were down last night as the Texas Panhandle crop continues to slide due to hot and dry weather in the region. Some of the crop is irrigated, but even these crops appear to be showing some stress. Crops in the Delta and Southeast appear to be in mostly very good condition. These areas have seen plenty of precipitation and more moderate temperatures. Certified stocks are about half of what they were a month ago and it looks like producers are not selling. They are upset with the prices and are in no rush to sell at current levels. World markets are also showing weaker prices as China appears to be out of the market. Chinese domestic prices are on par with or are cheaper than world values and the domestic industry is concentrating on using the local crop and will only enter the world market to buy higher end supplies for blending. These supplies will come from countries other than the US this year.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see scattered showers late this week and into the weekend mostly in the Southeast. Temperatures should be mostly near to below normal early this week and near to above normal later this week. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal after a cooler day today. The USDA average price is now 53.16 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 21,804 bales, from 22,342 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 5750, 5720, and 5660 December, with resistance of 5870, 5950, and 6000 December.
Date 25-Aug 18-Aug 2018 Avg
Cotton Setting Bolls 90 85 90 91
Cotton Bolls Opening 28 24 20 19
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 2 15 40 35 8
Cotton Last Week 2 13 36 41 8
Cotton Last Year 13 18 25 33 11
General Comments: FCOJ was higher as the tropical weather started to get more active in the Atlantic. A system off the Florida Atlantic coast could become named but more attention is being paid to Dorian that is just starting to hit some of the Caribbean islands. There is a chance it could hit Florida as a hurricane late this week or this weekend although the track is still not clear. Chart patterns remain generally weak due to good weather in Florida until now and ideas of good oranges crop production potential. The weather in Florida remained tranquil as the state has seen frequent showers and storms that have aided in development in the fruit. Inventories in Florida are still 17% above a year ago. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are as big as baseballs. Crop conditions are called good. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers starting this weekend. Heavy rain is possible in southern areas. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 92.00 September. Support is at 95.00, 93.00, and 90.00 September, with resistance at 99.00, 101.00, and 103.00 September.
General Comments: Futures closed higher in New York with London closed. There was not much going on in the news and the Real was a little lower. Ideas are that the export pace from Brazil remains strong and as roaster buying for other origins remains generally hard to find. The new harvest is now almost over and is available so the country should be able to keep up a strong export pace for at least the next few months. Almost half of the crop has been sold by producers according to private analysts in the country. Reports indicate that the yields are not real strong and that the quality of the crop is poor due to extreme weather seen early in the growing season. Vietnam is also reporting lower yields for the current crop as the weather was not good for flowering earlier in the year. There have been some hot and dry spells that have hurt yield and quality for these crops as well, but showers are reported in the Central Highlands recently and some flooding was reported. Conditions are called good right now. Central America has Coffee on offer, but bid prices from buyers have been very low.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 2.360 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 96.02 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered and mostly light showers and storms mostly in the north. ICE said that 9 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 365 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 95.00, 94.00, and 91.00 December, and resistance is at 98.00, 101.00 and 103.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1300, 1290, and 1260 November, and resistance is at 1330, 1360, and 1400 November.
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower in New York with London closed. A weaker Real hurt prices in this market as did ideas of big Indian supplies available to the market that will end up keeping prices very cheap as India dumps it Sugar onto the world. World supplies still appear ample for the demand potential. Reports from India indicate that the country still has a large surplus of White Sugar that probably must be exported. India is reporting above normal monsoon rains after a very slow start to the season. There are concerns that the Indian monsoon will not be strong this year and that Sugarcane production could be hurt. Processing of Sugarcane in Brazil is slower and the pace of the crush is behind last year. Mills are refining mostly for ethanol right now as has been the case all season. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil is good enough and India has improved to support some of the big production ideas.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1140, 1130, and 1120 October, and resistance is at 1160, 1180, and 1200 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 308.00, 307.00, and 305.00 October, and resistance is at 314.00, 319.00, and 322.00 October.
General Comments: Futures closed about unchanged in New York with London closed. The weather in West Africa is still a feature. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. Some showers in West Africa now help relieve stress on trees. Ideas are that the next crop will be good. The harvest will start in the Fall. Growing and harvesting conditions in Asia are also reported to be good. The harvest is ongoing amid showers, but good progress in the harvest is expected at this time. More and more Asian Cocoa has been staying at home and processed in Indonesia for export in the region. Demand in Asia has been growing and Indonesia has been eager to be the primary source of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.024 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 2,117 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2200, 2170, and 2140 December, with resistance at 2280, 2300, and 2340 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1700, 1680, and 1670 December, with resistance at 1750, 1780, and 1800 December.