About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Crop Progress
Date 25-Aug 18-Aug 2018 Avg
Cotton Setting Bolls 90 85 90 91
Cotton Bolls Opening 28 24 20 19
Corn Dough 71 55 91 87
Corn Dented 27 15 59 46
Soybeans blooming 94 90 100 99
Soybeans Setting Pods 79 68 94 91
Sorghum Headed 86 75 92 90
Sorghum Coloring 41 31 54 52
Sorghum Mature 22 21 26 30
Sorghum Harvested 20 20 20
Rice Headed 96 88 98 97
Rice Harvested 15 10 19 18
Oats Harvested 75 60 88 86
Winter Wheat Harvested 96 93 100 99
Spring Wheat Harvested 38 16 75 65
Barley Harvested 54 31 78 74

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 2 15 40 35 8
Cotton Last Week 2 13 36 41 8
Cotton Last Year 13 18 25 33 11

Corn This Week 3 10 30 47 10
Corn Last Week 3 11 30 46 10
Corn Last Year 4 8 20 47 21

Soybeans This Week 3 10 32 46 9
Soybeans Last Week 4 10 33 44 9
Soybeans Last Year 3 8 23 49 17

Sorghum This Week 1 6 27 51 15
Sorghum Last Week 1 6 28 52 13
Sorghum Last Year 5 12 30 44 9

Rice This Week 1 5 25 48 21
Rice Last Week 1 5 26 46 22
Rice Last Year 0 4 21 60 16

Peanuts This Week 1 6 28 54 11
Peanuts Last Week 1 5 28 57 9
Peanuts Last Year 1 3 20 58 18

Barley This Week 1 4 19 61 15
Barley Last Week 2 5 20 58 15
Barley Last Year 1 2 18 65 13

Spring Wheat This Week 1 5 25 60 9
Spring Wheat Last Week 1 6 23 58 12
Spring Wheat Last Year 1 4 21 63 11

Pastures and Ranges This Week 5 13 30 43 9
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 4 13 29 45 9
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 12 18 30 34 6

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Aug 26
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING AUG 22, 2019
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 08/22/2019 08/15/2019 08/23/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 587 2,938 2,886
CORN 639,154 510,334 1,264,787 46,796,286 56,409,175
FLAXSEED 0 0 24 48 170
MIXED 0 0 0 0 24
OATS 0 0 0 299 1,198
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 9,509 56,802 139,813 2,008,964 5,111,629
SOYBEANS 961,964 1,158,755 907,945 44,447,219 55,521,416
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 335
WHEAT 492,998 564,632 499,927 6,014,256 4,854,465
Total 2,103,625 2,290,523 2,813,083 99,270,010 121,901,298
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were a little lower on fund selling. The funds appeared to be buying Soybeans and selling Corn and Wheat in response to news that China and the US were getting closer to a trade deal and a truce in the tariff war. No one talked about new demand for Wheat and the market remains wary of Russian and European prices holding below those of the US. The markets held fairly well considering the weakness in world markets. Japan and the US are close to their own trade deal that will help the US keep a big market share for Japanese Wheat imports. Winter Wheat harvest activities are winding down in the north and are completed in the south. Spring Wheat harvest is moving slowly and is expanding into Canada. That usually means that the seasonal low is not that far away. The weekly charts show that futures are getting oversold and that a bottom is possible. Upside price potential is thought to be somewhat limited as there is a lot of Wheat available to the world market and the US Dollar has been stronger to keep US prices on the defensive. Harvests in the northern half of the world are coming to an end with Russia and Europe offering. Egypt tendered for Wheat overnight. Egypt has been able to buy from eastern Europe at cheaper prices and has increased its purchase volumes in recent weeks. But, the US is also seeing increased business on the export side and reports indicate that demand for Wheat as feed is strong inside the US. Wheat prices could turn sideways or could stage a short-term rally in the near future.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered and light showers on Wednesday, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers and storms today, then mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather but showers are possible in Saskatchewan late this week. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 470, 463, and 457 September, with resistance at 480, 483, and 496 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 388, 384, and 381 September, with resistance at 396, 403, and 408 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 485, 464, and 407 September. Support is at 491, 488, and 485 September, and resistance is at 503, 505, and 508 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher on news that the US and China might be getting closer to a trade agreement. US Rice hopes to be included in any agreement as the industry has worked years to open the market. It had finally succeeded when the tariff war hit, so the news was considered great for the market. The weekly charts show that there is some significant support near the lows of last week, and these held and caused some speculative short covering. The weekly crop progress report showed that the harvest is active in Texas and Louisiana and is just getting started in the other states. Condition ratings were good. Field yields have been average at best in the south. It is too early to know much about yields farther to the north. Harvest progress in the north will be slow due to the late planting from the very wet Spring. Export demand in general has been solid this year and should continue generally strong with no real competition noted from South America for sales in the western hemisphere. Demand from other areas such as the Middle East will be more problematic as Asia can also service this market.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers each day. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1118, 1101, and 1087 September, with resistance at 1130, 1139, and 1148 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed mostly a little higher, but September was lower as some positioning before First Notice Day on Friday was seen. Most positions will be rolled or covered by Thursday. USDA showed that the crop progress remains far behind normal. Condition showed improvement. The lack of export and domestic demand has really hurt the Corn market this year and demand prospects are not improving even with the weaker prices. The market found some support from news that the US and Japan have a trade agreement in principle that should help maintain the huge market share for Corn that the US has in that market. Strong competition is coming from South America and eastern Europe will challenge for sales as well. Demand for ethanol is becoming a problem after the Trump administration allowed waivers for 31 smaller refineries last week. The administration is now looking for alternative ways to increase Corn consumption for ethanol but has not yet found a good way out. Ethanol manufacturers are starting to reduce operations due to these and previous waivers that have hurt demand and prices. Feed demand has been a problem for the last year and should continue to be a problem despite high animal numbers in the US as feed interests look to cheaper alternatives. The Pro Farmer crop tour covered much of the Midwest last week and found extremely uneven conditions. It estimated US Corn production at 13.358 billion bushels on yields of 163.3 bushels per acre. USDA had estimated production at 13.901 billion bushels on an average yield of 169.5 bushels per acre. The Pro Farmer estimate appears to be realistic based on the extremely uneven growing conditions seen this year. Tour participants noted that the crop development remains very far behind normal so it will be a race against first freeze dates to get this crop to maturity. An early freeze this year could cause a much smaller crop, but a late freeze could cause yields to increase.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 357, 353, and 350 September, and resistance is at 364, 366, and 370 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 256, 255, and 254 September. Support is at 261, 259, and 257 September, and resistance is at 268, 270, and 274 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher on news that President Trump and the Chinese are getting closer to a trade agreement. The market as higher in the overnight hours due to the production estimates from Pro Farmer but moved to the highs of the day on the China news. USDA showed an improvement in crop condition due to recent rains, but the crop progress remains well behind normal. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour is now over and the organization will give a final production estimate this afternoon. Pod counts for most areas were less than a year ago and the three-year average for the tour. Plants are still immature so some additional pods could form. Some areas, mostly in Iowa and Minnesota, had sold and above tour average pod counts, but most areas had less too much less. A large percentage of the Soybeans were not planted until after the beginning of June and some traders feel that the late planting is resulted in what appears to be lower production potential. A private tour found healthy crops in north central Indiana yesterday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 835 and 815 September. Support is at 842, 834, and 830 September, and resistance is at 864, 869, and 883 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 291.00, 289.00, and 287.00 September, and resistance is at 253.00, 298.00, and 300.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2750 and 2660 September. Support is at 2820, 2800, and 2760 September, with resistance at 2860, 2890, and 2910 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on a stronger Canadian Dollar. The market is waiting or new production data from StatsCan this week and most expect Canola production to be reduced from last year. The average trade guess for Canola production is 18.9 million tons. Production last year was 20.34 million tons. Cold weather is possible in the next week and there is talk that a frost of freeze might be done. Palm Oil was a little lower in response to news that India could raise its import taxes on Palm Oil by 5% to 50%… Buying also probably came as the China-US trade war is causing China to consider dropping quotas on world vegetable oils imports. The market still expects limited upside potential, but the charts show that the market has broken out to the upside. There are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand. Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.
Overnight News: AmSpec said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 1.365 million tons, from 1.123 million last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 448.00, 445.00, and 442.00 November, with resistance at 456.00, 457.00, and 459.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2280 and 2370 November. Support is at 2250, 2230, and 2190 November, with resistance at 2300, 2310, and 2320 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry after some showers and storms move from west to east today. Temperatures should be near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August +41 Sep +165 Sep +32 Nov +12 Aug N/A
September +37 Sep +70 Sep +26 Nov
October +41 Dec +75 Dec +25 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 26
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 420.90 -29.00 Nov 2019 dn 3.20
Track Thunder Bay 455.40 7.00 Nov 2019 dn 9.50
Track Vancouver 463.40 15.00 Nov 2019 dn 6.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 545.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 545.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 547.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 547.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 562.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 550.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 550.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 552.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 552.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 567.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 562.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 452.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 2,200 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 156.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2050)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 27
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 188,348 lots, or 6.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 3,446 3,470 3,421 3,430 3,455 3,453 -2 5,102 15,782
Nov-19 3,484 3,515 3,455 3,455 3,481 3,485 4 22 274
Jan-20 3,532 3,560 3,504 3,512 3,528 3,538 10 171,286 181,894
Mar-20 – – – 3,528 3,528 3,528 0 0 26
May-20 3,720 3,727 3,686 3,691 3,717 3,709 -8 11,938 40,032
Jul-20 – – – 3,684 3,684 3,684 0 0 12
Corn
Turnover: 822,216 lots, or 15.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 1,857 1,858 1,833 1,840 1,858 1,843 -15 18,008 80,246
Nov-19 1,883 1,886 1,862 1,871 1,885 1,874 -11 43,544 362,958
Jan-20 1,915 1,917 1,891 1,900 1,916 1,903 -13 714,580 1,126,132
Mar-20 1,931 1,936 1,914 1,919 1,937 1,930 -7 374 3,390
May-20 1,975 1,977 1,952 1,958 1,977 1,963 -14 45,184 224,340
Jul-20 1,983 1,990 1,972 1,973 1,990 1,984 -6 526 1,218
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,476,476 lots, or 72.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 2,969 2,969 2,915 2,932 2,982 2,948 -34 54,016 55,736
Nov-19 3,014 3,014 2,948 2,967 3,010 2,977 -33 75,332 259,466
Dec-19 2,975 2,986 2,931 2,943 2,991 2,959 -32 2,674 1,772
Jan-20 2,965 2,972 2,915 2,935 2,977 2,952 -25 1,930,292 2,163,334
Mar-20 2,874 2,903 2,862 2,862 2,921 2,887 -34 186 806
May-20 2,779 2,796 2,735 2,747 2,766 2,773 7 413,754 602,034
Jul-20 2,777 2,795 2,739 2,754 2,775 2,769 -6 218 882
Aug-20 2,778 2,778 2,778 2,778 2,787 2,778 -9 4 26
Palm Oil
Turnover: 855,086 lots, or 42.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 4,902 4,902 4,754 4,754 4,894 4,836 -58 19,022 25,390
Oct-19 – – – 4,904 4,962 4,904 -58 0 12
Nov-19 – – – 4,856 4,914 4,856 -58 0 12
Dec-19 – – – 4,856 4,856 4,856 0 0 6
Jan-20 4,966 4,974 4,858 4,864 4,960 4,928 -32 775,536 510,042
Feb-20 4,950 4,950 4,950 4,950 5,070 4,950 -120 4 20
Mar-20 – – – 4,984 5,104 4,984 -120 0 2
Apr-20 – – – 4,990 5,110 4,990 -120 0 2
May-20 5,108 5,118 5,010 5,016 5,108 5,082 -26 60,524 68,214
Jun-20 – – – 5,094 5,120 5,094 -26 0 2
Jul-20 – – – 5,128 5,154 5,128 -26 0 2
Aug-20 – – – 5,096 5,096 5,096 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,127,406 lots, or 69.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 6,176 6,176 6,008 6,012 6,142 6,098 -44 19,786 62,850
Nov-19 6,188 6,188 6,188 6,188 6,190 6,188 -2 4 4
Dec-19 – – – 6,164 6,164 6,164 0 0 48
Jan-20 6,254 6,256 6,112 6,128 6,244 6,190 -54 1,010,256 938,824
Mar-20 6,218 6,218 6,218 6,218 6,266 6,218 -48 2 30
May-20 6,216 6,218 6,100 6,110 6,214 6,166 -48 97,358 193,278
Jul-20 – – – 6,218 6,218 6,218 0 0 4
Aug-20 – – – 6,346 6,394 6,346 -48 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322