About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Aug 15
For the week ended Aug 8, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 462.2 12.3 9848.5 8316.8 5027.3 12.3
hrw 105.6 0.0 3792.5 2207.6 1406.6 0.0
srw 22.1 7.5 1231.9 1076.6 696.4 7.5
hrs 179.1 4.8 2640.0 2583.3 1578.6 4.8
white 135.4 0.0 1759.0 2256.9 1011.2 0.0
durum 20.0 0.0 425.0 192.5 334.4 0.0
corn 56.1 307.6 49984.0 60192.6 2592.8 4380.6
soybeans -109.9 817.4 48660.7 58609.1 5647.9 4468.6
soymeal 130.1 144.2 11806.6 12238.7 1831.8 1197.6
soyoil 1.4 0.0 877.0 1031.8 155.6 24.2
upland cotton 329.1 151.2 7774.7 8322.8 7427.8 439.4
pima cotton -3.8 0.0 153.8 229.7 139.1 0.0
sorghum 35.4 -25.0 1727.6 5076.7 138.4 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 56.7 49.1 47.2 0.0
rice 46.7 0.0 733.2 367.0 618.8 0.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 15
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL August Aug. 16, 2019 69 Aug 14, 2019
SOYBEAN August Aug. 16, 2019 143 Aug 14, 2019

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed to higher on reports of firmer overseas prices. Ideas are that the prices in Europe and Russia are trying to make seasonal lows as the Winter Wheat harvest is done and the Spring Wheat harvest is moving along. The US Winter Wheat harvest is entering its final stages as well, but there is still a lot of Spring Wheat to harvest. Yield reports should be strong for US Spring Wheat until the combines get close to the Canadian border. Yields could drop in the north due to dry weather during the growing season. Ideas are that feed demand for Winter Wheat has been strong in the Great Plains, but export demand has been harder to find. The weather remains dry in much of the Midwest and Great Plains. Trends are down on the daily charts.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered and light showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 465, 460, and 436 September. Support is at 466, 455, and 451 September, with resistance at 4783, 495, and 505 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 354 September. Support is at 381, 378, and 375 September, with resistance at 393, 403, and 408 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 485, 464, and 407 September. Support is at 500, 497, and 494 September, and resistance is at 514, 516, and 519 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher yesterday. The harvest is active and some producers as well as some speculators sold yesterday. Long grains yield were less and provided a bullish backdrop for the trade. We have been hearing of lower yields in Texas and Louisiana and lower yields are expected in Arkansas and Mississippi once these states start to harvest. Yield reports from Louisiana seem especially low this year. Long grains production was down as was domestic consumption. Exports were left unchanged. Medium and short grains yields were also lower except for California which saw increases due to very good growing conditions. Futures closed higher and the daily charts show that the market is about to try to rally again with moves over 1200/cwt possible.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1182 and 1207 September. Support is at 1135, 1130, and 1127 September, with resistance at 1165, 1172, and 1185 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower on follow through selling tied bad economic data from China and diminishing demand hopes. Futures have seen significant fund and speculator selling in response to the USDA reports released Monday and futures have now given back any weather related gains seen in the market since the start of the growing season. The crop remains very late and the production estimates made by USDA could be subject to significant revisions down depending on the weather through harvest. Prices can become more stable but there is no real reason to expect a major rally for now due to the production estimates as export and ethanol demand have been soft.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 353, 350, and 347 September, and resistance is at 370, 379, and 385 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 280, 288, and 295 September. Support is at 276, 272, and 268 September, and resistance is at 282, 285, and 288 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower on more fund selling tied mostly to weak demand ideas. Economic data released by China was bad and implied that China was moving into a recession. Demand for Soybeans remains generally weak and will not get stronger if the Chinese economy is soft. There re real questions as to how many Soybeans they need to buy due to diminished feed demand there. The Asian Swine Flu is still hurting feed demand and causing reduced imports from all sources. The White House wants to win the trade war but us hurting everyone in the world in the process. China appears to be playing a waiting game now as they have throughout history. The trade war should not end anytime soon no matter what happens to the Chinese economy.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 863, 861, and 856 September, and resistance is at 883, 887, and 896 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 293.00, 291.00, and 287.00 September, and resistance is at 300.00, 303.00, and 305.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2890, 2880, and 2860 September, with resistance at 2980, 3000, and 3040 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was mixed on Chicago and Canadian Dollar weakness. Most areas are seeing good weather now, but the weather has been dry and sometimes hot in many growing areas until recently. Traders are expecting good but not great crops right now. Palm Oil was higher on positive export data. Buying also probably came as the China-US trade war is causing China to consider dropping quotas on world vegetable oils imports. The market still expects limited upside potential, but the charts show that the market has broken out to the upside. There are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand. Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 752,470 tons so far this month, from 658,182 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 448.00, 445.00, and 442.00 November, with resistance at 456.00, 457.00, and 459.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 2200, 2170, and 2150 November, with resistance at 2250, 2260, and 2280 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry after some showers today. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August +40 Sep +155 Sep +49 Sep +38 Nov +12 Aug N/A
September +40 Sep +75 Sep +28 Nov
October +35 Dec +70 Dec +26 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 14
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 419.90 dn 3.50
Basis: Thunder Bay 465.20 up 1.30
Basis: Vancouver 470,20 up 1.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)S

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 15
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 542.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 542.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 545.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 560.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 547.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 547.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 550.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 565.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 540.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 425.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 2,160 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 153.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1920)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 15
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 119,230 lots, or 4.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 3,417 3,421 3,377 3,383 3,406 3,394 -12 56,354 57,894
Nov-19 3,447 3,447 3,447 3,447 3,443 3,447 4 2 300
Jan-20 3,450 3,456 3,422 3,424 3,451 3,438 -13 60,424 118,510
Mar-20 – – – 3,416 3,439 3,416 -23 0 30
May-20 3,584 3,601 3,579 3,587 3,593 3,589 -4 2,450 30,492
Jul-20 – – – 3,598 3,613 3,598 -15 0 14
Corn
Turnover: 471,504 lots, or 9.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 1,875 1,878 1,867 1,874 1,865 1,872 7 59,972 238,452
Nov-19 1,891 1,907 1,891 1,897 1,895 1,899 4 28,466 341,196
Jan-20 1,914 1,921 1,911 1,912 1,911 1,915 4 362,290 968,096
Mar-20 1,935 1,941 1,933 1,937 1,936 1,935 -1 626 3,232
May-20 1,975 1,981 1,972 1,973 1,974 1,975 1 20,028 197,042
Jul-20 1,991 1,994 1,986 1,989 1,989 1,990 1 122 1,184
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,815,076 lots, or 52.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 2,880 2,897 2,868 2,875 2,886 2,881 -5 271,698 360,698
Nov-19 2,915 2,923 2,899 2,905 2,918 2,912 -6 95,244 244,592
Dec-19 2,904 2,913 2,889 2,895 2,911 2,900 -11 1,802 1,368
Jan-20 2,891 2,895 2,861 2,867 2,890 2,876 -14 1,355,676 1,727,826
Mar-20 2,818 2,830 2,814 2,814 2,813 2,817 4 30 826
May-20 2,763 2,766 2,737 2,740 2,765 2,749 -16 90,474 381,690
Jul-20 2,758 2,758 2,738 2,740 2,760 2,748 -12 152 662
Aug-20 – – – 2,760 2,760 2,760 0 0 0
Palm Oil
Turnover: 561,158 lots, or 26.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 4,660 4,710 4,642 4,646 4,674 4,674 0 49,782 128,926
Oct-19 – – – 4,790 4,790 4,790 0 0 18
Nov-19 – – – 4,838 4,838 4,838 0 0 12
Dec-19 4,882 4,882 4,850 4,850 4,912 4,866 -46 4 8
Jan-20 4,818 4,848 4,768 4,780 4,812 4,812 0 485,236 474,320
Feb-20 – – – 4,940 4,940 4,940 0 0 20
Mar-20 – – – 4,942 4,942 4,942 0 0 2
Apr-20 – – – 5,006 5,006 5,006 0 0 2
May-20 5,018 5,046 4,972 4,984 5,008 5,016 8 26,136 45,254
Jun-20 – – – 4,940 4,940 4,940 0 0 2
Jul-20 – – – 5,000 5,000 5,000 0 0 2
Aug-20 – – – 5,000 5,000 5,000 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,058,700 lots, or 64.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 6,000 6,064 5,992 6,006 5,988 6,030 42 107,184 148,058
Nov-19 6,036 6,100 6,036 6,100 6,048 6,082 34 8 6
Dec-19 6,070 6,088 6,070 6,088 6,050 6,078 28 18 48
Jan-20 6,140 6,188 6,112 6,134 6,114 6,148 34 907,520 951,468
Mar-20 – – – 6,116 6,116 6,116 0 0 6
May-20 6,168 6,216 6,146 6,168 6,154 6,182 28 43,970 157,490
Jul-20 – – – 6,196 6,196 6,196 0 0 6
Aug-20 – – – 6,196 6,196 6,196 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322