About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Crop Progress
Date 11-Aug 4-Aug 2018 Avg
Cotton Setting Bolls 77 59 75 76
Cotton Bolls Opening 20 12 10
Corn Silking 90 78 96 97
Corn Dough 39 23 71 61
Corn Dented 7 24 16
Soybeans Blloming 82 72 95 93
Soybeans Setting Pods 54 37 83 76
Sorghum Headed 61 45 77 74
Sorghum Coloring 26 23 36 35
Sorghum Mature 19 21 23
Rice Headed 76 60 90 85
Rice Harvested 7 10 9
Peanuts Pegging 96 92 93 95
Oats Harvested 48 32 65 64
Winter Wheat Harvested 89 82 93 96
Spring Wheat Harvested 8 2 32 30
Barley Harvested 15 3 37 39

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 1 9 34 47 9
Cotton Last Week 1 12 33 44 10
Cotton Last Year 14 20 26 32 8

Corn This Week 3 10 30 47 10
Corn Last Week 3 10 30 47 10
Corn Last Year 3 7 20 50 20

Soybeans This Week 3 10 33 46 8
Soybeans Last Week 3 10 33 45 9
Soybeans Last Year 3 7 24 50 16

Sorghum This Week 1 5 28 52 14
Sorghum Last Week 1 5 26 54 14
Sorghum Last Year 5 12 34 42 7

Rice This Week 1 5 24 47 23
Rice Last Week 1 6 25 45 23
Rice Last Year 1 6 24 57 12

Oats This Week 2 6 28 52 12
Oats Last Week 2 6 27 54 11
Oats Last Year 4 3 22 58 13

Peanuts This Week 1 5 27 59 8
Peanuts Last Week 1 5 25 61 8
Peanuts Last Year 1 3 23 58 15

Barley This Week 0 6 20 57 17
Barley Last Week 0 5 19 64 12
Barley Last Year 0 3 16 67 14

Spring Wheat This Week 1 7 23 57 12
Spring Wheat Last Week 0 5 22 63 10
Spring Wheat Last Year 1 4 20 62 13

Pastures and Ranges This Week 4 12 30 45 9
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 3 10 29 48 10
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 12 18 30 34 6

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower in reaction to the USDA reports. USDA showed less production for Texas but increased production in the Delta and Southeast. Total US production was increased as was demand. The demand increase was less than the production increase, so USDA showed increased ending stocks at levels well above 7.0 million bales. USDA lowered the average farm price and futures moved lower in response to the USDA estimates. However, support at the recent contract lows held and the next price direction probably depends on the charts as well as the fundamentals. The weather has been considered good for Cotton production in the US. It has been warm but there have been showers to support good development. The main exception has been in the Texas Panhandle where it remains hot and dry. Conditions in the Delta and Southeast have been strong and have improved over the last few weeks. Crop development remains on about an average pace and bolls should start to form soon. Demand remains a big problem for Cotton. World demand has been less this year as China has not been buying. World prices have been lower as a result.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see scattered showers today, then drier weather. Temperatures should be mostly near to below normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will trend to above normal. The USDA average price is now 52.85 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 23,996 bales, from 24,989 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 5750, 5720, and 5660 December, with resistance of 5970, 6010, and 6170 December.

DJ USDA Crop Production: U.S. All Cotton-Aug 12
Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,
and United States, 2018 and Forecasted Aug 1, 2019
========================================================================
Type Area Harvested Yield Production 1/
and ==============================================================
State 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019
========================================================================
==1,000 Acres== === Pounds === == 1,000 Bales 2/ ==
Upland
U.S. 9,957.0 12,378.0 847 843 17,566.0 21,726.0
Amer Pima
U.S. 248.8 259.4 1,545 1,462 801.0 790.0
All Cotton
U.S. 10,205.8 12,637.4 864 855 18,367.0 22,516.0
========================================================================
1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ 480-pound net weight bales.
Cottonseed: Production, United States,
2018-19 and Forecasted Aug 1, 2019
========================================================================
Production
=================================================================
2018 2019 1/
========================================================================
1,000 Tons
U.S. 5,631.0 6,969.0
========================================================================
1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Cotton – Aug 12
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
=========================================================================
Item 2018/2019 2019/2020
prev Aug 12 prev Aug 12
==========================================================================
Area
Million acres
Planted 14.10 14.10 13.72 ** 13.90
Harvested 10.21 10.21 12.49 ** 12.64
Pounds
Yield per harv. acre 864 864 845 ** 855
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 4.30 4.30 5.00 5.25
Production 18.37 18.37 22.00 22.52
Imports 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Supply, total 22.67 22.67 27.01 27.77
Domestic use 3.00 3.00 3.10 3.10
Exports 14.50 14.22 17.00 17.20
Use, total 17.50 17.22 20.10 20.30
Unaccounted 2/ 0.17 0.21 0.21 0.27
Ending stocks 5.00 5.25 6.70 7.20
Avg. farm price 3/ 70.00 70.00 63.00 60.00
==========================================================================
1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals
may not add due to rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the
previous season’s supply less total use and ending stocks. 3/ Cents per
pound for upland cotton.
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long
staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to
rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the previous season’s supply
less total use and ending stocks. 3/ Cents per pound for upland cotton.
**For July planted area as reported in the June 28 2019 Acreage. Harvested
area based on 10-year average abandonment by region with the Southwest
adjusted to reflect favorable moisture conditions. Yield based on 5-year
average yields by region.

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton – Aug 12
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
=============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss 2/ stocks
=============================================================================
2019/20 (Projected)
World
Jul 79.27 125.79 44.12 124.27 44.15 0.34 80.42
Aug 80.27 125.61 43.90 123.07 43.85 0.40 82.45
World Less China
Jul 43.91 98.04 33.62 83.77 44.03 0.34 47.43
Aug 44.68 97.86 33.40 83.07 43.73 0.40 48.74
United States
Jul 5.00 22.00 0.01 3.10 17.00 0.21 6.70
Aug 5.25 22.52 0.01 3.10 17.20 0.27 7.20
Total foreign
Jul 74.27 103.79 44.11 121.17 27.15 0.13 73.72
Aug 75.02 103.09 43.90 119.97 26.65 0.13 75.25
Major exporters 4/
Jul 27.79 57.22 2.14 35.11 23.01 0.02 29.00
Aug 28.36 56.65 2.11 34.41 22.61 0.02 30.07
Major importers 8/
Jul 44.67 43.52 39.41 81.79 2.90 0.11 42.79
Aug 44.86 43.40 39.22 81.29 2.79 0.11 43.29
=============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
Brazil China and the United States reflects the difference between
implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending
stocks. 3/ Less than 5 000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin Burkina
Faso Cameroon Central African Republic Chad Cote d’Ivoire Mali Niger
Senegal and Togo. 7/ Argentina Australia Brazil Lesotho South
Africa Tanzania Zambia and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries
and regions listed includes Japan Russia South Korea and Taiwan. 9/
Includes intra-EU trade.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower on what appeared to be speculative selling tied to generally weak agricultural markets and benign weather for Florida. There are some systems trying to form in the Gulf of Mexico this week but they do not appear to be a threat to Oranges. The weather in Florida remained tranquil as the state has seen frequent showers and storms that have greatly reduced irrigation needs. Speculators have been buying in anticipation of the hurricane season, but there are no storms on the horizon this early in the season. The state has seen only an increase in showers and storms that have been beneficial for crops. Trends are sideways to down on the daily charts and weekly charts as the market looks at a big orange crop and weak demand for FCOJ. Inventories in Florida are still 15% above a year ago. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are as big as baseballs. Crop conditions are called good. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers starting this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 92.00 September. Support is at 99.00, 96.00, and 95.00 September, with resistance at 103.00, 104.00, and 106.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures closed lower in both markets on ideas that the export pace from Brazil remains strong and as roasters buying remains generally hard to find. Most of the weakness was in New York as the market reacted to the weaker Brazilian Real. The new harvest is now past 80% complete and is starting to become available so the country should be able to keep up a strong export pace for at least the next few months. The Brazil harvest is moving along quickly and producers are trying to store the crop due to the current low prices. Reports indicate that the yields are not real strong and that the quality of the crop is poor due to extreme weather seen early in the growing season. Vietnam is also reporting lower yields for the current crop as the weather was not good for flowering earlier in the year. There have been some hot and dry spells that have hurt yield and quality for these crops as well, but showers are reported in the Central Highlands now and flooding is being reported in some areas. Central America has Coffee on offer but bid prices from buyers have been very low.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 2.362 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 94.93 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered and mostly light showers and storms.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 94.00 and 87.00 September. Support is at 93.00, 91.00, and 90.00 September, and resistance is at 97.00, 99.00 and 100.00 September. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1260 and 1240 September. Support is at 1250, 1220, and 1190 September, and resistance is at 1300, 1320, and 1340 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower again as demand for ethanol will be weaker in the US. Some blenders have obtained waivers from the US government due to the inability to make money blending ethanol and the news affected world markets as well. World supplies still appear ample for the demand potential. Reports from India indicate that the country still has a large surplus of White Sugar that probably must be exported. India is reporting below normal monsoon rains, but rains have been much better lately. There are concerns that the Indian monsoon will not be strong this year and that Sugarcane production could be hurt. Processing of Sugarcane in Brazil is slower and the pace of the crush is behind last year. Mills are refining mostly for ethanol right now as has been the case all season. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil is good enough and India has improved to support some of the big production ideas. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to below normal. ICE said that 137 deliveries of Sugar 16 were posted.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1150, 1130, and 1120 October, and resistance is at 1170, 1200, and 1220 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 312.00, 310.00, and 307.00 October, and resistance is at 322.00, 328.00, and 331.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower. Some of the selling in New York was currency related as the US Dollar has held very strong. The uneven weather in West Africa is still a feature. The weather in Ivory Coast has been drier than normal for the last couple of weeks and there is some talk that production of the next main crop could be hurt. Some showers are returning to West Africa now to help relieve stress on trees. Ideas are that the next crop will be good. The harvest will start in the Fall. Growing and harvesting conditions in Asia are also reported to be good. The harvest is ongoing amid showers, but good progress in the harvest is expected at this time. More and more Asian Cocoa has been staying at home and processed in Indonesia for export in the region. Demand in Asia has been growing and Indonesia has been eager to be the primary source of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in northwestern parts of West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.181 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2190, 2150, and 2120 September, with resistance at 2230, 2260, and 2290 September. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 1720, 1700, and 1660 September, with resistance at 1780, 1800, and 1820 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322