Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was higher in consolidation trading. More buying is possible today as the market gets ready for the USDA reports on Monday. The weather has been considered good for Cotton production in the US even after the hot and dry weather reported earlier in the Texas Panhandle. Areas in the Delta and Southeast showed improve crop condition to offset some of the problems in Texas. Demand remains a big problem for Cotton. World demand has been less this year as China has not been buying. World prices have been lower as a result. The situation is bad enough that Indian spinners have been cutting back on operations. USDA will note less demand for US Cotton as well, primarily due to the trade disputes the US government has started against China and other major world importers.
Overnight News: The Delta should see scattered showers each day and the Southeast could get mostly dry conditions until scattered showers appear this weekend. It should turn drier next week. Temperatures should be mostly near to below normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will trend to above normal. The USDA average price is now 54.36 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 26,229 bales, from 26,710 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 5820, 5750, and 5720 December, with resistance of 6010, 6170, and 6290 December.
DJ On-Call Cotton – Aug 8
As of Aug 2. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Jul 19 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct 19 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 19 26,911 29,274 -2,363 40,437 40,633 -196
Mar 20 25,013 25,631 -618 3,582 3,593 -11
May 20 9,880 9,789 91 564 564 0
Jul 20 14,259 14,790 -531 1,367 1,740 -373
Dec 20 8,869 8,313 556 15,164 14,418 746
Mar 21 3,434 3,370 64 574 574 0
May 21 1,370 1,239 131 0 0 0
Jul 21 2,201 1,961 240 0 0 0
Dec 21 0 0 0 441 441 0
Total 91,937 94,367 -2,430 62,129 61,963 166
Jul 19 0 0 0
Oct 19 249 232 17
Dec 19 139,992 136,276 3,716
Mar 20 37,268 36,099 1,169
May 20 5,147 4,797 350
Jul 20 5,215 5,028 187
Dec 20 13,452 12,859 593
Mar 21 379 413 -34
May 21 80 0 80
Jul 21 163 45 118
Dec 21 0 0 0
Total 201,945 195,749 6,196
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher yesterday in mostly quiet trading. Futures seem to be in a trading range for now. The weather in Florida has remained tranquil as the state has seen frequent showers and storms that have greatly reduced irrigation needs. There are no tropical systems likely to hit the state this week, but some waves are forming that could bring at least an increase in shower activity to the state. For now the National Hurricane Center rates the possibility that these systems develop into hurricanes or major tropical storms as low. But, the waves are forming and will continue to form and form more often over the nest couple of months. Trends are down on the daily charts. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are as big as baseballs. Crop conditions are called good. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers starting this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 99.00, 96.00, and 95.00 September, with resistance at 104.00, 106.00, and 107.00 September.
General Comments: Futures closed slightly higher. Trends overall remain down in both markets, but both markets are showing the potential for a low to form at current levels. The Brazil harvest in all areas is progressing and should end soon. Reports indicate that the yields are not real strong and that the quality of the crop is poor due to extreme weather seen early in the growing season. Vietnam is also reporting lower yields for the current crop as the weather was not good for flowering earlier in the year. There have been some hot and dry spells that have hurt yield and quality for these crops as well, but showers are reported in the Central Highlands now and ideas are that conditions and production potential have improved. Vietnam press sources reported significant flooding in parts of the Central Highlands and Coffee areas were among those affected by the floods. Central America has Coffee on offer but bid prices from buyers have been very low.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are little changed today at 2.357 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 97.43 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered and mostly light showers and storms.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 94.00 and 87.00 September. Support is at 94.00, 93.00, and 91.00 September, and resistance is at 99.00, 100.00 and 102.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1290 and 1240 September. Support is at 1280, 1250, and 1220 September, and resistance is at 1320, 1340, and 1380 September.
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower yesterday on less fund selling. Petroleum futures have been lower and the processing Sugar or Corn into Ethanol is hurt by tight margins. Petroleum futures are more stable now and there are hopes that Sugar prices can rebound. The US-China trade wars seem to be spilling into markets that had not been so affected until now as some now think the world economy could move into a recession. World supplies still appear ample for the demand potential. Reports from India indicate that the country still has a large surplus of White Sugar ad it looks like another big crop is coming as monsoon rains have improved. Processing of Sugarcane in Brazil is slower and the pace of the crush is behind last year. Mills are refining mostly for ethanol right now as has been the case all season. Production of Sugar Beets has been hurt in parts of Europe and Russia due to hot and dry weather.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 1120, 1090, and 1060 October, and resistance is at 1160, 1170, and 1200 October. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 305.00, 302.00, and 299.00 October, and resistance is at 315.00, 318.00, and 322.00 October.
General Comments: Futures closed lower and trends remain down in both markets. The weather in West Africa is called good for crop development as there have been periods of showers and rains. Ideas are that the next crop will feature good production. Nigerian producers worry about too much rain that could hurt crop quality. The harvest will start in the Fall. Growing and harvesting conditions in East Africa have been a little dry, but rains are returning. Asia conditions are also reported to be good. The harvest is ongoing amid showers, but good progress in the harvest is expected at this time. More and more Asian Cocoa has been staying at home and processed in Indonesia for export in the region. Demand in Asia has been growing and Indonesia has been eager to be the primary source of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in northwestern parts of West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.209 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2190, 2150, and 2120 September, with resistance at 2230, 2260, and 2290 September. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 1720, 1700, and 1660 September, with resistance at 1780, 1800, and 1820 September.