About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 9
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL August Aug. 12, 2019 314 Aug 08, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL August Aug. 12, 2019 50 Aug 05, 2019
SOYBEAN August Aug. 12, 2019 1103 Aug 08, 2019

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mostly higher with the biggest gains in Chicago on what appeared to be speculative short covering. HRW was little changed as the speculative buying encountered what appeared to be commercial selling. Winter Wheat markets are hoping for better demand as world prices hold firm. However, reports indicate that no one is selling a lot of Wheat into the world market these days. Spring Wheat was firm on uneven conditions in Canada as well as hot and dry weather in Spring Wheat areas of Russia and surrounding countries. Rains in the Canadian Prairies have been mostly in northern sections and southern sections have been dry. It has been a very dry year overall and there are ideas that yield potential is being affected. US Spring Wheat conditions have been mostly good as the primary growing areas in Montana and North Dakota have had good rains. Europe had some record-setting heat last month. Yield reports have been good given the stressful weather. Other parts of western Europe have had dry weather and hot conditions as well. Russia has also had some very hot and dry weather in Spring Wheat areas that have caused stress to crops. Winter Wheat areas near the Black Sea appear to be in relatively good condition.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered and light showers this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 527 an 551 September. Support is at 496, 490, and 483 September, with resistance at 503, 507, and 510 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 411, 403, and 393 September, with resistance at 427, 430, and 436 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 519, 514, and 512 September, and resistance is at 525, 528, and 533 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was little changed yesterday in moderate volume trading. The harvest is active in Texas and should be starting in Louisiana as well. Yield reports are showing less than a year ago in both states. Futures are just above cash prices in both states and it looks like commercials are getting some long hedges in place. Some speculative short covering has also been noted after some big speculative selling earlier in the week that was seen in just about all ag markets. USDA showed good crop progress and stable condition in its report on Monday night. Crops in other areas are variable due to uneven conditions due to cooler temperatures and varying rains.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1130, 1127, and 1121 September, with resistance at 1152, 1163, and 1172 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher on some speculative short covering before the USDA reports on Monday and as the weather in the Midwest becomes more important. The weekly export sales report showed little demand but the ethanol reports on Wednesday were considered positive for futures. Futures could creep higher before the next round of USDA reports are released next week. It is warm and mostly dry in the Midwest. Temperatures should be moderate again next week and the region should remain mostly dry. Many areas are now too dry after the very wet Spring and early Summer and the crops need a good drink. USDA showed only slight deterioration in its crop reports Monday night. The driest areas are in central Illinois, but dry conditions are noted in many areas throughout the Midwest. The Corn crop in general remains very late and Corn genetics mean that the crop can’t do much to catch up. Meanwhile, Corn is a market that needs more demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 408, 401, and 400 September, and resistance is at 413, 418, and 421 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 272 September. Support is at 269, 267, and 255 September, and resistance is at 276, 278, and 282 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed firm while Soybean Meal closed little changed. Soybean Oil rallied along with other world vegetable oils markets on news that China will end its quota and tariffs import system for vegetable oils. It is a move that appears to be in reaction to the smaller Soybeans imports caused by ASF in China. The weekly export sales report was not good for the Soybeans. The trade war with China continues with no news. USDA showed stable crop ratings on Monday night, but the weather and growing conditions are being watched by the trade. The entire Midwest saw moderate temperatures and drier weather last week that should have helped reduce stress on the plants. It will be warmer and mostly dry next week. Most areas in the central and eastern Midwest are too dry. Soybeans were planted very late this year and not all crops are showing good progress. The plants remain small and stressed and there are genuine questions about production potential this year that are not likely to be answered in any big way by USDA next week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 876 and 896 September. Support is at 861, 856, and 849 September, and resistance is at 878, 881, and 887 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 293.00, 291.00, and 287.00 September, and resistance is at 299.00, 303.00, and 305.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 2960 September. Support is at 2860, 2840, and 2800 September, with resistance at 2900, 2940, and 2950 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher again yesterday on speculative buying tied in part to hopes for more demand from China as it moves to lift quotas and tariffs on vegetable oils imports. Farmers are not selling any of the new crop yet and processors and exporters want to set some prices. The weather forecasts call for moderate temperatures this week. Most areas are seeing better weather now, but the weather has been dry and sometimes hot in many growing areas until recently. Growing conditions are improving after rains in the last couple of weeks, but there are areas that are still reported to be too dry. Traders are expecting good but not great crops right now. Palm Oil was sharply higher and made new highs for the move on ideas that production could seasonally drop. Buying also probably came as the China-US trade war is causing China to consider dropping quotas on world vegetable oils imports. The market still expects limited upside potential, but the charts show that the market has broken out to the upside. There are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand. Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 454.00 and 461.00 November. Support is at 448.00, 445.00, and 442.00 November, with resistance at 457.00, 459.00, and 463.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 2100, 2080, and 2070 October, with resistance at 2140, 2150, and 2170 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August +42 Sep +152 Sep +50 Sep +31 Nov +12 Aug N/A
September +42 Sep +68 Sep +25 Nov
October +70 Dic +26 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 8
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Aug. 8 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Thursday, August 8.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 433.40 -20.00 Nov 2019 up 1.40
Track Thunder Bay 467.20 12.00 Nov 2019 up 2.80
Track Vancouver 472.20 20.00 Nov 2019 up 2.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 9
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 537.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 537.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 542.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 560.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Aug 542.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 542.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 547.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 565.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 530.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 405.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 2,130 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 150 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1830)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 09
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 145,178 lots, or 4.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 3,375 3,402 3,371 3,400 3,387 3,388 1 90,858 90,768
Nov-19 3,435 3,435 3,422 3,430 3,426 3,428 2 32 326
Jan-20 3,447 3,479 3,443 3,474 3,450 3,465 15 51,210 101,682
Mar-20 – – – 3,444 3,444 3,444 0 0 30
May-20 3,594 3,609 3,588 3,598 3,589 3,597 8 3,076 29,834
Jul-20 3,588 3,588 3,588 3,588 3,599 3,588 -11 2 10
Corn
Turnover: 1,394,856 lots, or 26.73 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 1,894 1,897 1,869 1,878 1,910 1,879 -31 271,226 356,804
Nov-19 1,923 1,923 1,899 1,910 1,933 1,907 -26 104,832 344,458
Jan-20 1,931 1,933 1,913 1,927 1,947 1,923 -24 956,496 882,436
Mar-20 1,950 1,951 1,934 1,946 1,968 1,941 -27 632 2,288
May-20 1,992 1,996 1,975 1,992 2,015 1,984 -31 61,096 191,528
Jul-20 2,009 2,009 1,991 2,004 2,029 1,995 -34 574 1,264
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,280,856 lots, or 66.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 2,788 2,788 2,788 0 0 398
Sep-19 2,883 2,924 2,878 2,912 2,883 2,903 20 490,214 731,732
Nov-19 2,915 2,953 2,909 2,940 2,914 2,938 24 122,062 237,228
Dec-19 2,902 2,938 2,901 2,927 2,900 2,928 28 4,466 1,358
Jan-20 2,878 2,915 2,871 2,899 2,873 2,897 24 1,558,076 1,519,590
Mar-20 2,850 2,864 2,843 2,847 2,826 2,850 24 46 776
May-20 2,743 2,776 2,740 2,763 2,741 2,761 20 105,912 315,136
Jul-20 2,756 2,770 2,756 2,766 2,738 2,760 22 80 472
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,074,478 lots, or 50.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 4,270 4,270 4,270 0 0 0
Sep-19 4,486 4,646 4,482 4,612 4,470 4,548 78 237,566 188,504
Oct-19 4,632 4,722 4,632 4,722 4,562 4,696 134 14 18
Nov-19 4,660 4,660 4,660 4,660 4,764 4,660 -104 4 14
Dec-19 4,826 4,826 4,826 4,826 4,728 4,826 98 2 10
Jan-20 4,672 4,826 4,672 4,784 4,648 4,740 92 814,148 464,644
Feb-20 – – – 4,828 4,736 4,828 92 0 20
Mar-20 4,856 4,930 4,856 4,926 4,742 4,900 158 34 24
Apr-20 – – – 4,978 4,818 4,978 160 0 2
May-20 4,856 5,002 4,856 4,966 4,828 4,926 98 22,708 65,110
Jun-20 – – – 4,948 4,850 4,948 98 0 2
Jul-20 5,020 5,020 5,020 5,020 4,862 5,020 158 2 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,778,680 lots, or 10.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 5,338 5,338 5,338 0 0 0
Sep-19 5,848 6,008 5,832 6,008 5,778 5,926 148 263,104 257,990
Nov-19 5,942 6,078 5,928 6,046 5,894 5,982 88 24 20
Dec-19 6,134 6,138 6,006 6,138 5,920 6,074 154 20 40
Jan-20 5,982 6,162 5,968 6,150 5,926 6,068 142 1,455,676 907,422
Mar-20 6,080 6,204 6,080 6,164 5,966 6,154 188 40 32
May-20 5,998 6,198 5,998 6,182 5,960 6,092 132 59,816 131,440
Jul-20 – – – 6,128 5,996 6,128 132 0 6
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322