Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Aug 8
For the week ended Aug 1, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1. The
marketing year for corn, soybeans and sorghum begins Sep 1. The
marketing year for soy meal and soy oil begins Oct 1.
For rice and cotton, “this year” is the 2019-2020 marketing
year, which began Aug 1, while “last year” is 2018-2019.
wk’s net change total
in commitments undlvd sales
this year next year this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 487.7 0.0 9386.3 7513.8 5202.0 0.0
hrw 129.6 0.0 3687.0 1826.9 1532.2 0.0
srw 35.1 0.0 1209.8 969.1 779.8 0.0
hrs 225.0 0.0 2461.0 2425.0 1577.7 0.0
white 56.1 0.0 1623.5 2114.5 987.0 0.0
durum 41.8 0.0 405.0 178.5 325.2 0.0
corn 42.6 197.0 49927.8 59921.4 3244.5 4073.0
soybeans 101.7 318.3 48826.7 58475.6 6869.4 3651.3
soymeal 92.2 18.6 11676.5 12031.5 1972.1 1053.4
soyoil 31.8 8.9 875.6 1027.0 157.4 24.2
upland cotton 2560.8-a 75.8 7445.6 8245.1 7372.8 288.2
pima cotton 85.1-b 0.0 157.6 227.0 155.4 0.0
sorghum 38.8 25.0 1692.3 5046.6 180.1 25.0
barley 0.0 0.0 56.7 49.1 47.4 0.0
rice 557.9-c 0.0 686.5 339.4 647.3 0.0
-a: Includes new sales activity for Jul 26-Aug 1 which resulted
in a net increase of 179.5 thousand metric tons. Also includes
2381.3 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
-b: Includes new sales activity for Jul 26-Aug 1 which
resulted in a net increase of 8.8 thousand metric tons. Also includes
76.3 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
-c: Includes new sales activity for Jul 26-Aug 1 which
resulted in a net increase of 97.7 thousand metric tons. Also includes
460.2 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
General Comments: Cotton was mixed to a little lower in consolidation trading. Traders seem top be waiting for the Monday USDA supply and demand reports before making any big moves. Traders were also waiting for the USDA weekly export sales report that was released this morning. The weather has been considered good for Cotton production in the US even after the hot and dry weather reported earlier in the Texas Panhandle. Areas in the Delta and Southeast showed improve crop condition to offset some of the problems in Texas. Demand remains a big problem for Cotton. World demand has been less this year as China has not been buying. World prices have been lower as a result. The situation is bad enough that Indian spinners have been cutting back on operations. USDA will note less demand for US Cotton as well, primarily due to the trade disputes the US government has started against China and other major world importers.
Overnight News: The Delta should see scattered showers each day and the Southeast could get mostly dry conditions until scattered showers appear this weekend. Temperatures should be mostly near to below normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will trend to above normal. The USDA average price is now 53.40 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 26,710 bales, from 27,736 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 5750, 5720, and 5660 December, with resistance of 6010, 6170, and 6290 December.
General Comments: FCOJ was lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative selling. Futures seem to be in a trading range for now. The weather in Florida has remained tranquil as the state has seen frequent showers and storms that have greatly reduced irrigation needs. There are no tropical systems likely to hit the state this week, but some waves are forming that could bring at least an increase in shower activity to the state. For now the National Hurricane Center rates the possibility that these systems develop into hurricanes or major tropical storms as low. But, the waves are forming and will continue to form and form more often over the nest couple of months. Trends are down on the daily charts. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are as big as baseballs. Crop conditions are called good. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers starting this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 99.00, 96.00, and 95.00 September, with resistance at 104.00, 106.00, and 107.00 September.
General Comments: Futures closed slightly lower after trading both sides of unchanged. The main news was that Cooxupe in Brazil said its producers have harvested 87% of the crop. Trends overall remain down in both markets, but both markets are showing the potential for a low to form at current levels. The Brazil harvest in all areas is progressing and should end soon. Reports indicate that the yields are not real strong and that the quality of the crop is poor due to extreme weather seen early in the growing season. Vietnam is also reporting lower yields for the current crop as the weather was not good for flowering earlier in the year. There have been some hot and dry spells that have hurt yield and quality for these crops as well, but showers are reported in the Central Highlands now and ideas are that conditions and production potential have improved. Central America has Coffee on offer but bid prices from buyers have been very low.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.357 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 96.79 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered and mostly light showers and storms.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 94.00 and 87.00 September. Support is at 94.00, 93.00, and 91.00 September, and resistance is at 99.00, 100.00 and 102.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1290 and 1240 September. Support is at 1280, 1250, and 1220 September, and resistance is at 1320, 1340, and 1380 September.
General Comments: Futures closed sharply lower again yesterday on fund selling and demand concerns. Petroleum futures have been lower and the processing Sugar or Corn into Ethanol is hurt by tight margins. The US-China trade wars seems to be spilling into markets that had not been so affected until now as some now think the world economy could move into a recession. World supplies still appear ample for the demand potential. Reports from India indicate that the country still has a large surplus of White Sugar add it looks like another big crop is coming as monsoon rains have improved. Processing of Sugarcane in Brazil is slower and the pace of the crush is behind last year. Mills are refining mostly for ethanol right now as has been the case all season. Production of Sugar Beets has been hurt in parts of Europe and Russia due to hot and dry weather.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 1120, 1090, and 1060 October, and resistance is at 1160, 1170, and 1200 October. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 305.00, 302.00, and 299.00 October, and resistance is at 311.00, 315.00, and 318.00 October.
General Comments: Futures closed lower and trends remain down in both markets. The weather in West Africa is called good for crop development as there have been periods of showers and rains. Ideas are that the next crop will feature good production. The harvest will start in the Fall. Growing and harvesting conditions in East Africa have been a little dry, but rains are returning. Asia conditions are also reported to be good. The harvest is ongoing amid showers, but good progress in the harvest is expected at this time. More and more Asian Cocoa has been staying at home and processed in Indonesia for export in the region. Demand in Asia has been growing and Indonesia has been eager to be the primary source of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in northwestern parts of West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.220 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2220, 2190, and 2150 September, with resistance at 2290, 2320, and 2360 September. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 1740, 1720, and 1700 September, with resistance at 1780, 1800, and 1820 September.