About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 8
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL August Aug. 09, 2019 402 Aug 07, 2019
SOYBEAN August Aug. 09, 2019 1103 Aug 07, 2019

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Aug 8
For the week ended Aug 1, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1. The
marketing year for corn, soybeans and sorghum begins Sep 1. The
marketing year for soy meal and soy oil begins Oct 1.
For rice and cotton, “this year” is the 2019-2020 marketing
year, which began Aug 1, while “last year” is 2018-2019.
Source: USDA
wk’s net change total
in commitments undlvd sales
this year next year this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 487.7 0.0 9386.3 7513.8 5202.0 0.0
hrw 129.6 0.0 3687.0 1826.9 1532.2 0.0
srw 35.1 0.0 1209.8 969.1 779.8 0.0
hrs 225.0 0.0 2461.0 2425.0 1577.7 0.0
white 56.1 0.0 1623.5 2114.5 987.0 0.0
durum 41.8 0.0 405.0 178.5 325.2 0.0
corn 42.6 197.0 49927.8 59921.4 3244.5 4073.0
soybeans 101.7 318.3 48826.7 58475.6 6869.4 3651.3
soymeal 92.2 18.6 11676.5 12031.5 1972.1 1053.4
soyoil 31.8 8.9 875.6 1027.0 157.4 24.2
upland cotton 2560.8-a 75.8 7445.6 8245.1 7372.8 288.2
pima cotton 85.1-b 0.0 157.6 227.0 155.4 0.0
sorghum 38.8 25.0 1692.3 5046.6 180.1 25.0
barley 0.0 0.0 56.7 49.1 47.4 0.0
rice 557.9-c 0.0 686.5 339.4 647.3 0.0
-a: Includes new sales activity for Jul 26-Aug 1 which resulted
in a net increase of 179.5 thousand metric tons. Also includes
2381.3 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2018-2019.
-b: Includes new sales activity for Jul 26-Aug 1 which
resulted in a net increase of 8.8 thousand metric tons. Also includes
76.3 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2018-2019.
-c: Includes new sales activity for Jul 26-Aug 1 which
resulted in a net increase of 97.7 thousand metric tons. Also includes
460.2 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2018-2019.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were a little higher as the speculative selling was less and as world crop conditions became important again. Winter Wheat markets are hoping for better demand as world prices hold firm. However, reports indicate that no one is selling a lot of Wheat into the world market these days. Spring Wheat has held better on uneven conditions in Canada as well as hot and dry weather in Spring Wheat areas of Russia and surrounding countries. Rains in the Canadian Prairies have been mostly in northern sections and southern sections have been dry. It has been a very dry year overall and there are ideas that yield potential is being affected. US Spring Wheat conditions have been mostly good as the primary growing areas in Montana and North Dakota have had good rains. Europe had some record-setting heat last month. Yield reports have been good given the stressful weather. Other parts of western Europe have had dry weather and hot conditions as well. Russia has also had some very hot and dry weather in Spring Wheat areas that have caused stress to crops. Winter Wheat areas near the Black Sea appear to be in relatively good condition.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered and light showers this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 478, 474, and 472 September, with resistance at 493, 495, and 500 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 411, 403, and 393 September, with resistance at 427, 430, and 436 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 519, 514, and 512 September, and resistance is at 525, 528, and 533 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was moderately higher yesterday on two-sided trading. Some selling came as the harvest has started in Texas and should be starting in Louisiana as well. Futures are just above cash prices in both states and it looks like commercials are getting some long hedges in place. Some speculative short covering has also been noted after some big speculative selling earlier in the week that was seen in just about all ag markets. USDA showed good crop progress and stable condition in its report on Monday night. Yield reports in Texas indicating that yields are behind last year at this early time in the progress. Crops in other areas look good but no one expects super yields due to the very uneven growing season including a lot of rain at planting time and then uneven conditions due to cooler temperatures and varying rains seen until recently.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1127, 1121, and 1118 September, with resistance at 1152, 1163, and 1172 September.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Aug 7
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 14.51 9.26 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.17 9.49 0.00
Brokens 8.75 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher as the weather in the Midwest becomes more important. Futures could creep higher before the next round of USDA reports are released next week. China and the US weather have dominated the trade talk. It has been cooler but mostly dry in the Midwest. Cooler and drier weather is expected this week after a bought of warmer temperatures and some showers today. It is expected to become hot again next week and the region should remain mostly dry. Many areas are now too dry after the very wet Spring and early Summer and the crops need a good drink. USDA showed only slight deterioration in its crop reports Monday night. The driest areas are in central Illinois, but dry conditions are noted in many areas throughout the Midwest. The Corn crop in general remains very late and Corn genetics mean that the crop can’t do much to catch up, especially with the generally cooler temperatures. Meanwhile, Corn is a market that needs some demand.
Overnight News: Ethanol production was 1.040 million barrels per day in the week ending August 2, from 1.031 million the previous week and 1.100 million the previous year. Ethanol stocks are now 23.1 million barrels, from 24.5 million the previous week and 22.9 million the previous year. Ethanol production used 106.0 million bushels of Corn, from 105.1 million the previous week and 112.9 million the previous year. Corn used for Ethanol production is 5.067 billion bushels this year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 400, 394, and 391 September, and resistance is at 408, 413, and 418 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 272 September. Support is at 261, 257, and 255 September, and resistance is at 272, 276, and 279 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans closed firm while the products were a little lower. The trade war with China continues. China apparently told its industry not to buy US ag products anymore after the presidential tweets and this demand is probably lost until at least the next presidential elections here. USDA showed stable crop ratings on Monday night, but the weather and growing conditions are being watched by the trade. The entire Midwest saw some cooler and drier weather last week that should have helped reduce stress on the plants. It will be warmer and mostly dry next week. Most areas in the central and eastern Midwest are too dry. Soybeans were planted very late this year and not all crops are showing good progress. The plants remain small and stressed and there are genuine questions about production potential this year that are not likely to be answered in any big way by USDA next week.
Overnight News: Philippines bought 135,000 tons of US Soybean Meal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 850, 847, and 845 September, and resistance is at 862, 878, and 881 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 293.00, 291.00, and 287.00 September, and resistance is at 299.00, 303.00, and 305.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2760, 2720, and 2700 September, with resistance at 2830, 2850, and 2890 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher again yesterday on speculative buying tied in part to a weaker Canadian Dollar. The weather forecasts call for moderate temperatures this week. Most areas are seeing better weather now, but the weather has been dry and sometimes hot in many growing areas until recently. Growing conditions are improving after rains in the last couple of weeks, but there are areas that are still reported to be too dry. Traders are expecting good but not great crops right now. Palm Oil was slightly higher one more day and made new highs for the move on ideas that production could seasonally drop. Buying also probably came as the China-US trade war is causing China to consider dropping quotas on world vegetable oils imports. The market still expects limited upside potential, but the charts show that the market has broken out to the upside and that at least a short-term rally is happening now. There are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand. Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 445.00, 442.00, and 440.00 November, with resistance at 453.00, 457.00, and 459.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2100 October. Support is at 2080, 2070, and 2030 October, with resistance at 2120, 2140, and 2150 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August +42 Sep +152 Sep +50 Sep +31 Nov +12 Aug N/A
September +42 Sep +68 Sep +25 Nov
October +70 Dic +26 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 7
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Aug. 7 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Tuesday, August 7.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 432.00 -20.00 Nov 2019 up 3.20
Track Thunder Bay 464.40 12.00 Nov 2019 up 1.40
Track Vancouver 469.40 20.00 Nov 2019 dn 1.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 8
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 530.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 532.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 540.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 560.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Aug 535.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 537.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 545.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 565.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 525.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 392.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 2,090 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 148 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1815)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 08
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 132,464 lots, or 4.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 3,401 3,406 3,374 3,376 3,380 3,387 7 91,120 96,492
Nov-19 3,421 3,434 3,414 3,425 3,432 3,426 -6 20 328
Jan-20 3,452 3,467 3,438 3,443 3,438 3,450 12 37,686 91,734
Mar-20 – – – 3,444 3,444 3,444 0 0 30
May-20 3,599 3,600 3,582 3,588 3,587 3,589 2 3,638 29,944
Jul-20 – – – 3,599 3,599 3,599 0 0 10
Corn
Turnover: 1,415,342 lots, or 27.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 1,915 1,918 1,895 1,896 1,921 1,910 -11 271,604 440,130
Nov-19 1,941 1,943 1,915 1,917 1,945 1,933 -12 47,772 341,048
Jan-20 1,966 1,967 1,925 1,929 1,972 1,947 -25 1,016,350 921,206
Mar-20 1,991 1,991 1,952 1,952 1,990 1,968 -22 934 2,266
May-20 2,032 2,033 1,992 1,993 2,036 2,015 -21 78,072 179,986
Jul-20 2,042 2,042 2,008 2,008 2,050 2,029 -21 610 1,262
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,147,506 lots, or 61.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 2,788 2,788 2,788 0 0 398
Sep-19 2,884 2,897 2,875 2,883 2,876 2,883 7 728,612 802,306
Nov-19 2,912 2,923 2,904 2,911 2,905 2,914 9 115,566 247,392
Dec-19 2,920 2,920 2,891 2,901 2,895 2,900 5 588 1,272
Jan-20 2,881 2,892 2,859 2,873 2,874 2,873 -1 1,203,438 1,473,944
Mar-20 2,828 2,841 2,817 2,817 2,821 2,826 5 28 756
May-20 2,745 2,754 2,733 2,740 2,740 2,741 1 99,230 308,296
Jul-20 2,745 2,745 2,731 2,739 2,741 2,738 -3 44 508
Palm Oil
Turnover: 622,028 lots, or 28.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 4,270 4,270 4,270 0 0 0
Sep-19 4,452 4,490 4,446 4,472 4,442 4,470 28 245,064 231,230
Oct-19 – – – 4,562 4,562 4,562 0 0 14
Nov-19 4,764 4,764 4,764 4,764 4,644 4,764 120 4 18
Dec-19 4,756 4,756 4,700 4,700 4,712 4,728 16 4 10
Jan-20 4,632 4,668 4,614 4,662 4,618 4,648 30 366,412 436,502
Feb-20 – – – 4,736 4,632 4,736 104 0 20
Mar-20 – – – 4,742 4,742 4,742 0 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,818 4,788 4,818 30 0 2
May-20 4,802 4,846 4,790 4,842 4,798 4,828 30 10,544 65,454
Jun-20 – – – 4,850 4,820 4,850 30 0 2
Jul-20 – – – 4,862 4,862 4,862 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,026,768 lots, or 60.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 5,338 5,338 5,338 0 0 0
Sep-19 5,738 5,830 5,712 5,830 5,706 5,778 72 205,414 291,250
Nov-19 5,914 5,924 5,848 5,900 5,796 5,894 98 30 28
Dec-19 5,892 5,968 5,892 5,968 5,840 5,920 80 6 40
Jan-20 5,882 5,976 5,860 5,966 5,864 5,926 62 769,696 806,816
Mar-20 – – – 5,966 5,904 5,966 62 0 8
May-20 5,926 6,006 5,900 5,994 5,904 5,960 56 51,622 124,670
Jul-20 – – – 5,996 5,940 5,996 56 0 6
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322