About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 7
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL August Aug. 08, 2019 484 Aug 06, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL August Aug. 08, 2019 103 Aug 05, 2019
SOYBEAN August Aug. 08, 2019 1066 Aug 06, 2019

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on weak demand ideas. Egypt bought from Europe again and US Wheat was not included. The weekly export sales reports have not been strong and the trade fears that US prices are still too high when compared to world values. The Winter Wheat harvest is moving to completion now under mostly good conditions. Harvesting is complete in the central and southern Great Plains and in most of the Midwest. Only the northern Great Plains has much left to harvest and this area will drag its harvest out for several more weeks. The yield and quality reports for HRW have been very good. Spring Wheat has held better on uneven conditions in Canada as well as hot and dry weather in Spring Wheat areas of Russia and surrounding countries. Rains in the Canadian Prairies have been mostly in northern sections and southern sections have been dry. It has been a very dry year overall and there are ideas that yield potential is being affected. US Spring Wheat conditions have been mostly good as the primary growing areas in Montana and North Dakota have had good rains. Europe had some record-setting heat last month. Yield reports have been good given the stressful weather. Other parts of western Europe have had dry weather and hot conditions as well. Russia has also had some very hot and dry weather in Spring Wheat areas that have caused stress to crops. Winter Wheat areas near the Black Sea appear to be in relatively good condition.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered and light showers this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 488, 483, and 474 September, with resistance at 493, 495, and 500 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 416, 414, and 411 September, with resistance at 427, 430, and 436 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 521, 519, and 514 September, and resistance is at 525, 528, and 533 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was moderately lower yesterday on some follow through selling. Futures have been falling in part due to the trade war with China although the US has not really sold Rice to that country in the past. Some selling came as the harvest has started in Texas and should be starting in Louisiana as well. USDA showed good crop progress and stable condition in its report on Monday night. Yield reports in Texas indicating that yields are behind last year at this early time in the progress. Crops in other areas look good but no one expects super yields due to the very uneven growing season including a lot of rain at planting time and then uneven conditions due to cooler temperatures and varying rains seen until recently. Arkansas could be the worst state this year as many producers could not get everything planted a had of enroll in the Prevent Plant program.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1136, 1127, and 1121 September, with resistance at 1152, 1163, and 1172 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower in consolidation trading. Futures held support areas yesterday and could creep higher before the next round of USDA reports are released next week. China and the US weather have dominated the trade talk. It has been cooler but mostly dry in the Midwest. Cooler and drier weather is expected this week after a bought of warmer temperatures and some showers today. Crops are generally reported to be in good condition with good color, but many areas are now too dry after the very wet Spring and early Summer and the crops need a good drink. USDA showed only slight deterioration in its crop reports Monday night. The driest areas are in central Illinois, but dry conditions are noted in many areas throughout the Midwest. The Corn crop in general remains very late and Corn genetics mean that the crop can’t do much to catch up, especially with the generally cooler temperatures. Meanwhile, Corn is a market that needs some demand and the weekly export sales reports have not been strong. Overseas buyers can get cheaper Corn in Argentina. Demand for ethanol has also been less over the last few weeks on weaker processing margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 400, 394, and 391 September, and resistance is at 408, 413, and 418 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 272 September. Support is at 261, 257, and 255 September, and resistance is at 272, 276, and 279 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybean Meal closed firm while Soybeans and Soybean Oil were a little lower. The trade war with China continues. China apparently told its industry not to buy US ag products anymore after the presidential tweets and moves of last week and this was confirmed as true yesterday. USDA showed stable crop ratings on Monday night, but the weather and growing conditions are being watched by the trade. The entire Midwest saw some cooler and drier weather last week that should have helped reduce stress on the plants. It will be warmer with some showers today but should be mostly dry and cooler again later this week. Most areas in the central and eastern Midwest are too dry. Soybeans were planted very late this year and not all crops are showing good progress. The plants remain small and stressed and there are genuine questions about production potential this year that are not likely to be answered in any big way by USDA next week.
Overnight News: USDA said that unknown destinations bought 165,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 850, 847, and 845 September, and resistance is at 862, 878, and 881 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 291.00 September. Support is at 293.00, 291.00, and 287.00 September, and resistance is at 299.00, 303.00, and 305.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2700 and 2620 September. Support is at 2780, 2760, and 2720 September, with resistance at 2830, 2850, and 2890 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher again yesterday on speculative buying tied in part to a weaker Canadian Dollar. The weather forecasts call for moderate temperatures this week. Most areas are seeing better weather now, but the weather has been dry and sometimes hot in many growing areas until recently. Growing conditions are improving after rains in the last couple of weeks, but there are areas that are still reported to be too dry. Traders are expecting good but not great crops right now. Palm Oil was slightly higher one more day and made new highs for the move on ideas that production could seasonally drop. Buying also probably came as the China-US trade war showed signs of heating up overnight. The market still expects limited upside potential, but the charts show that the market has broken out to the upside and that at least a short-term rally is happening now. There are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand. Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 442.00, 440.00, and 437.00 November, with resistance at 449.00, 453.00, and 457.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2100 October. Support is at 2080, 2070, and 2030 October, with resistance at 2120, 2140, and 2150 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August +42 Sep +152 Sep +50 Sep +31 Nov +12 Aug N/A
September +42 Sep +68 Sep +25 Nov
October +70 Dic +26 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 6
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Aug. 6 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Monday, August 6.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 428.80 -20.00 Nov 2019 up 2.80
Track Thunder Bay 463.00 12.00 Nov 2019 up 3.20
Track Vancouver 468.00 20.00 Nov 2019 up 2.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 7
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 520.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 522.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 530.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 547.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Aug 525.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 527.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 535.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 552.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 512.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 385.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 2,040 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 145 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1880)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 07
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 155,516 lots, or 5.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 3,377 3,403 3,364 3,400 3,388 3,380 -8 113,252 104,438
Nov-19 3,444 3,449 3,418 3,431 3,415 3,432 17 50 336
Jan-20 3,429 3,456 3,421 3,452 3,426 3,438 12 38,946 89,038
Mar-20 – – – 3,444 3,444 3,444 0 0 30
May-20 3,571 3,600 3,567 3,593 3,573 3,587 14 3,264 29,926
Jul-20 3,590 3,608 3,590 3,608 3,561 3,599 38 4 10
Corn
Turnover: 729,806 lots, or 14.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 1,919 1,926 1,915 1,917 1,918 1,921 3 199,606 509,970
Nov-19 1,944 1,950 1,942 1,942 1,946 1,945 -1 108,676 344,660
Jan-20 1,975 1,978 1,964 1,965 1,974 1,972 -2 399,102 811,844
Mar-20 1,994 1,997 1,985 1,985 1,992 1,990 -2 366 2,250
May-20 2,039 2,043 2,030 2,030 2,038 2,036 -2 21,946 156,684
Jul-20 2,052 2,054 2,045 2,045 2,052 2,050 -2 110 1,328
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,044,818 lots, or 58.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 2,788 2,788 2,788 0 0 398
Sep-19 2,863 2,890 2,863 2,887 2,876 2,876 0 976,328 927,036
Nov-19 2,904 2,914 2,888 2,912 2,896 2,905 9 114,574 234,308
Dec-19 2,892 2,906 2,885 2,905 2,905 2,895 -10 888 1,310
Jan-20 2,873 2,885 2,861 2,883 2,886 2,874 -12 864,056 1,380,196
Mar-20 2,822 2,822 2,821 2,822 2,842 2,821 -21 8 764
May-20 2,735 2,749 2,731 2,745 2,749 2,740 -9 88,890 303,854
Jul-20 2,741 2,745 2,738 2,745 2,752 2,741 -11 74 496
Palm Oil
Turnover: 416,172 lots, or 18.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 4,270 4,270 4,270 0 0 0
Sep-19 4,456 4,466 4,422 4,456 4,452 4,442 -10 204,754 262,812
Oct-19 – – – 4,562 4,562 4,562 0 0 14
Nov-19 – – – 4,644 4,654 4,644 -10 0 14
Dec-19 – – – 4,712 4,712 4,712 0 0 10
Jan-20 4,630 4,636 4,598 4,630 4,624 4,618 -6 198,334 429,578
Feb-20 – – – 4,632 4,632 4,632 0 0 20
Mar-20 – – – 4,742 4,748 4,742 -6 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,788 4,788 4,788 0 0 2
May-20 4,806 4,818 4,774 4,814 4,806 4,798 -8 13,080 62,156
Jun-20 – – – 4,820 4,820 4,820 0 0 2
Jul-20 4,898 4,898 4,826 4,826 4,840 4,862 22 4 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 680,784 lots, or 39.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 5,338 5,338 5,338 0 0 0
Sep-19 5,708 5,744 5,662 5,738 5,692 5,706 14 166,484 316,418
Nov-19 5,774 5,832 5,734 5,806 5,842 5,796 -46 12 14
Dec-19 – – – 5,840 5,840 5,840 0 0 38
Jan-20 5,874 5,896 5,822 5,888 5,864 5,864 0 479,442 748,258
Mar-20 – – – 5,904 5,904 5,904 0 0 8
May-20 5,906 5,934 5,856 5,926 5,908 5,904 -4 34,844 100,618
Jul-20 5,940 5,940 5,940 5,940 5,926 5,940 14 2 6
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322