Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was lower as the trade war with China carried the news. News reports indicated that China had told its private industry not to buy US ag goods, but China denied saying this. The damage had already been done as Cotton futures were sharply lower. Prices recovered, but the market still closed with significant losses. The weather has been considered good for Cotton production in the US. It has been warm but there have been showers to support good development. Crop development remains on about an average pace and bolls should start to form soon. Crop condition was lower in the USDA reports last night. Demand remains a big problem for Cotton. World demand has been less this year as China has not been buying. World prices have been lower as a result. The situation is bad enough that Indian spinners have been cutting back on operations. USDA will note less demand for US Cotton as well, primarily due to the trade disputes the US government has started against China and other major world importers. US production prospects have improved after a rough start to the season. The main problem area continues to be the Texas Panhandle. It has generally been very hot and dry in much of the Panhandle but conditions have improved and crop ratings have gone higher. Overall US production prospects remain strong as most other areas are in good condition and USDA has kept condition ratings generally strong.
Overnight News: The Delta should see mostly dry conditions today and then scattered showers each day and the Southeast could get mostly dry conditions until scattered showers appear late this week. Temperatures should be mostly near to below normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will trend to above normal. The USDA average price is now 52.73 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 28,088 bales, from 28,088 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives. Support is at 5720, 5660, and 5600 December, with resistance of 6010, 6170, and 6290 December.
Date 4-Aug 28-Jul 2018 Avg
Cotton Squaring 95 86 91 93
Cotton Setting Bolls 59 45 58 61
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 1 12 33 44 10
Cotton Last Week 1 10 28 46 15
Cotton Last Year 11 21 28 32 8
General Comments: FCOJ was lower yesterday on ideas of good growing conditions and little demand for US FCOJ. The weekly Movement and Pack report shows that inventories are starting to increase again. The weather in Florida has remained tranquil as the state has seen frequent showers and storms that have greatly reduced irrigation needs. There are no tropical systems likely to hit the state this week, but some waves are forming that could bring at least an increase in shower activity to the state. For now the National Hurricane Center rates the possibility that these systems develop into hurricanes or major tropical storms as low. Trends are down on the daily charts. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are as big as baseballs. Crop conditions are called good. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers each day, but less late this week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 92.00 September. Support is at 95.00, 92.00, and 89.00 September, with resistance at 100.00, 102.00, and 104.00 September.
General Comments: Futures closed lower in both markets on ideas that deteriorating world economic conditions will lead to reduced demand and on ideas that offers from Brazil remain large. The new harvest is starting to become available so the country should be able to keep up a strong export pace for at least the next few months. The Brazil harvest is moving along and producers are trying to store the crop due to the current low prices. Reports indicate that the yields are not real strong and that the quality of the crop is poor due to extreme weather seen early in the growing season. There are forecasts for rains that could create premature flowering for the next crop and growers are showing some concern. Vietnam is also reporting lower yields for the current crop as the weather was not good for flowering earlier in the year. There have been some hot and dry spells that have hurt yield and quality for these crops as well, but showers are reported in the Central Highlands now and ideas are that conditions and production potential have improved. Central America has Coffee on offer but bid prices from buyers have been very low.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.353 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 95.99 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to below temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered and mostly light showers and storms.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 94.00 and 87.00 September. Support is at 93.00, 91.00, and 90.00 September, and resistance is at 99.00, 100.00 and 102.00 September. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1290 and 1240 September. Support is at 1280, 1250, and 1220 September, and resistance is at 1320, 1340, and 1380 September.
General Comments: Futures closed lower on demand concerns. The US-China trade wars seems to be spilling into markets that had not been so affected until now as some now think the world economy could move into a recession. Weaker Crude Oil futures hurt ethanol demand ideas as well. World supplies still appear ample for the demand potential. Reports from India indicate that the country still has a large surplus of White Sugar that probably must be exported. India is reporting below normal monsoon rains, but rains have been much better lately. There are concerns that the Indian monsoon will not be strong this year and that Sugarcane production could be hurt. Processing of Sugarcane in Brazil is slower and the pace of the crush is behind last year. Mills are refining mostly for ethanol right now as has been the case all season. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil is good enough and India has improved to support some of the big production ideas.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1170 and 1140 October. Support is at 1150, 1140, and 1120 October, and resistance is at 1200, 1220, and 1230 October. Trends in London are down with objectives of 315.00 and 308.00 October. Support is at 315.00, 312.00, and 311.00 October, and resistance is at 322.00, 328.00, and 331.00 October.
General Comments: Futures closed lower, with New York in down trends and with London trends turning down as well. Ideas of weaker world demand due to the US-China trade war and fears of a global recession kept prices under pressure. The uneven weather in West Africa is still a feature. The weather in Ivory Coast has been dryer than normal for the last couple of weeks and there is some talk that production of the next main crop could be hurt. Some showers are returning to West Africa now to help relieve stress on trees. Ideas are that the next crop will be good. The harvest will start in the Fall. Growing and harvesting conditions in Asia are also reported to be good. The harvest is ongoing amid showers, but good progress in the harvest is expected at this time. More and more Asian Cocoa has been staying at home and processed in Indonesia for export in the region. Demand in Asia has been growing and Indonesia has been eager to be the primary source of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in northwestern parts of West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.245 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2280, 2260, and 2220 September, with resistance at 2320, 2360, and 2390 September. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1790, 1780, and 1740 September. Support is at 1780, 1760, and 1740 September, with resistance at 1820, 1860, and 1870 September.