About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 6
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL August Aug. 07, 2019 572 Aug 05, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL August Aug. 07, 2019 213 Aug 05, 2019
ETHANOL August Aug. 07, 2019 17 Jul 23, 2019
SOYBEAN August Aug. 07, 2019 1131 Aug 05, 2019

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Aug 5
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING AUG 01, 2019
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 08/01/2019 07/25/2019 08/02/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 931 293 2,938 1,516
CORN 631,289 667,669 1,287,796 44,909,138 52,774,581
FLAXSEED 0 24 0 48 146
MIXED 0 0 0 0 24
OATS 0 0 0 299 1,198
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 14,689 9,126 47,603 1,854,818 4,894,838
SOYBEANS 1,029,010 1,064,335 893,648 41,373,961 53,370,914
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 335
WHEAT 395,136 413,768 327,172 4,216,836 3,378,650
Total 2,070,124 2,155,853 2,556,512 92,358,038 114,422,202
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Crop Progress
Date 4-Aug 28-Jul 2018 Avg
Cotton Squaring 95 86 91 93
Cotton Setting Bolls 59 45 58 61
Corn Silking 78 58 95 93
Corn Dough 23 13 54 42
Soybeans blooming 72 57 91 87
Soybeans Setting Pods 37 21 73 63
Sorghum Headed 45 33 67 62
Sorghum Coloring 23 21 30 30
Rice Headed 60 42 79 73
Peanuts Pegging 92 84 89 91
Oats Harvested 32 21 49 49
Winter Wheat Harvested 82 75 89 92
Spring Wheat Harvested 2 12 14
Barley Harvested 3 14 18

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 1 12 33 44 10
Cotton Last Week 1 10 28 46 15
Cotton Last Year 11 21 28 32 8

Corn This Week 3 10 30 47 10
Corn Last Week 3 9 30 47 11
Corn Last Year 3 7 19 50 21

Soybeans This Week 3 10 33 45 9
Soybeans Last Week 3 10 33 45 9
Soybeans Last Year 3 7 23 51 16

Sorghum This Week 1 5 26 54 14
Sorghum Last Week 1 3 25 59 12
Sorghum Last Year 6 12 33 42 7

Rice This Week 1 6 25 45 23
Rice Last Week 1 6 25 48 20
Rice Last Year 1 7 23 56 13

Oats This Week 2 6 27 54 11
Oats Last Week 2 6 26 53 13
Oats Last Year 4 3 22 58 13

Peanuts This Week 1 5 25 61 8
Peanuts Last Week 1 4 25 61 9
Peanuts Last Year 1 3 25 58 13

Barley This Week 0 5 19 64 12
Barley Last Week 0 5 18 62 15
Barley Last Year 0 2 19 64 15

Spring Wheat This Week 0 5 22 63 10
Spring Wheat Last Week 1 5 21 62 11
Spring Wheat Last Year 1 5 20 60 14

Pastures and Ranges This Week 3 10 29 48 10
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 2 8 26 52 12
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 12 18 30 34 6

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower to start the day but recovered to close higher. It was a reversal type day and trends in all three markets are now sideways to mixed. The Winter Wheat harvest is moving to completion now under mostly good conditions. Harvesting is complete in the central and southern Great Plains and in most of the Midwest. Only the northern Great Plains has much left to harvest and this area will drag its harvest out for several more weeks. The yield and quality reports for HRW have been very good. We still have not heard much about the SRW crop but the price action suggests good yields there too. Spring Wheat has held better on uneven conditions in Canada as well as hot and dry weather in Spring Wheat areas of Russia and surrounding countries. Condition ratings were mostly stable in the reports last night as the harvest gets underway. Rains in the Canadian Prairies have been mostly in northern sections and southern sections have been dry. It has been a very dry year overall and there are ideas that yield potential is being affected. US Spring Wheat conditions have been mostly good as the primary growing areas in Montana and North Dakota have had good rains. The weather overseas has not been that good. Europe had some record-setting heat last week that caused the government to tell producers to stop harvesting due to fires that were breaking out in production areas. Yield reports have been good given the stressful weather. Other parts of western Europe have had dry weather and hot conditions as well. Russia has also had some very hot and dry weather in Spring Wheat areas that have caused stress to crops. Winter Wheat areas near the Black Sea appear to be in relatively good condition. US Wheat is hoping for better demand due to the problems in other parts of the world.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered and light showers this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 469, 465, and 460 September. Support is at 483, 474, and 472 September, with resistance at 493, 495, and 500 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 407, 390, and 384 September. Support is at 411, 403, and 393 September, with resistance at 426, 430, and 436 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 502 and 497 September. Support is at 514, 512, and 509 September, and resistance is at 525, 528, and 533 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was sharply lower yesterday on what appeared to be chart based selling. USDA showed good crop progress and stable condition in its report last night. Crops in the south are starting to be harvested with yield reports in Texas indicating that yields are behind last year at this early time in the progress. Crops in other areas look good but no one expects super yields due to the very uneven growing season including a lot of rain at planting time and then uneven conditions due to cooler temperatures and varying rains seen until recently. Arkansas could be the worst state this year as many producers could not get everything planted a had of enroll in the Prevent Plant program. Futures could stay lower this week as the market waits for the harvest to expand. An increase in farmer selling is anticipated on any further price strength.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1136, 1127, and 1121 September, with resistance at 1152, 1163, and 1172 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher after trading lower to start the day. It was a wild day that saw some fund selling on ideas of less demand due to the problems with China early, then buying tied to ideas of dry weather in the eastern half of the Midwest. It has been cooler but mostly dry in the Midwest. Cooler and drier weather is expected this week after a bought of warmer temperatures and some showers over the next couple of days. Crops are generally reported to be in good condition with good color, but many areas are now too dry after the very wet Spring and early Summer and the crops need a good drink. USDA showed only slight deterioration in its crop reports last night. The driest areas are in central Illinois, but dry conditions are noted in many areas throughout the Midwest. The Corn crop in general remains very late and Corn genetics mean that the crop can’t do much to catch up, especially with the generally cooler temperatures. Meanwhile, Corn is a market that needs some demand and the weekly export sales reports have not been strong. Overseas buyers can get cheaper Corn in Argentina. Demand for ethanol has also been less over the last few weeks on weaker processing margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 400, 394, and 391 September, and resistance is at 406, 413, and 418 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 272 September. Support is at 261, 257, and 255 September, and resistance is at 272, 276, and 279 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed firm while Soybean Oil was lower. The trade war with China continues and was a reason for volatile markets yesterday. China apparently told its industry not to buy US ag products anymore after the presidential tweets and moves of last week, then denied this was true. The China news pushed the markets to the lows but ideas of worsening crop conditions created some buying interest. USDA showed stable crop ratings last night. The entire Midwest saw some cooler and drier weather last week that should have helped reduce stress on the plants. It will be warmer with some showers over the next couple of days but should be mostly dry and cooler again later this week. Soybeans were planted very late this year and not all crops are showing good progress. The plants remain small and stressed and there are genuine questions about production potential this year that are not likely to be answered in any big way by USDA next week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 850, 847, and 845 September, and resistance is at 862, 878, and 881 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 291.00 September. Support is at 293.00, 291.00, and 287.00 September, and resistance is at 299.00, 303.00, and 305.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2780, 2760, and 2720 September, with resistance at 2850, 2890, and 2900 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher yesterday. The weather forecasts call for moderate temperatures this week. Most areas are seeing better weather now, but the weather has been dry and sometimes hot in many growing areas until recently. Growing conditions are improving after rains in the last couple of weeks, but there are areas that are still reported to be too dry. Traders are expecting good but not great crops right now. Palm Oil was higher and made new highs for the move on ideas that production could seasonally drop. Buying also probably came as the China-US trade war showed signs of heating up overnight. The market still expects limited upside potential, but the charts show that the market has broken out to the upside and that at least a short-term rally is happening now. There are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand. Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 437.00 November. Support is at 442.00, 440.00, and 437.00 November, with resistance at 446.00, 449.00, and 453.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2100 October. Support is at 2070, 2030, and 2010 October, with resistance at 2090, 2120, and 2140 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August +58 Sep +152 Sep +50 Sep +31 Nov +12 Aug N/A
September +40 Sep +68 Sep +25 Nov
October +68 Dic +25 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 2
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Aug. 2(MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Wednesday, July 31.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 426.00 -20.00 Nov 2019 up 2.50
Track Thunder Bay 459.80 12.00 Nov 2019 up 5.80
Track Vancouver 464.80 20.00 Nov 2019 up 2.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 6
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 520.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 525.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 532.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 550.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Aug 525.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 530.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 537.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 555.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 515.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 385.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 2,030 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 143 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1890)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 06
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 179,216 lots, or 6.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 3,395 3,406 3,371 3,377 3,391 3,388 -3 131,272 106,750
Nov-19 3,403 3,455 3,403 3,422 3,426 3,415 -11 42 324
Jan-20 3,438 3,440 3,412 3,429 3,411 3,426 15 45,682 86,624
Mar-20 3,440 3,448 3,440 3,448 3,419 3,444 25 4 30
May-20 3,568 3,586 3,561 3,574 3,559 3,573 14 2,216 29,556
Jul-20 – – – 3,561 3,561 3,561 0 0 10
Corn
Turnover: 654,852 lots, or 12.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 1,921 1,923 1,916 1,920 1,923 1,918 -5 166,538 529,754
Nov-19 1,951 1,952 1,944 1,946 1,951 1,946 -5 123,518 323,080
Jan-20 1,979 1,979 1,971 1,974 1,979 1,974 -5 345,112 774,858
Mar-20 1,992 1,995 1,991 1,995 1,996 1,992 -4 220 2,194
May-20 2,039 2,041 2,035 2,039 2,040 2,038 -2 18,604 149,910
Jul-20 2,059 2,059 2,048 2,050 2,055 2,052 -3 860 1,354
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,651,216 lots, or 76.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 2,788 2,788 2,788 0 0 398
Sep-19 2,864 2,906 2,855 2,860 2,847 2,876 29 1,325,624 960,636
Nov-19 2,875 2,930 2,875 2,888 2,865 2,896 31 63,380 212,212
Dec-19 2,939 2,939 2,880 2,890 2,871 2,905 34 1,206 1,148
Jan-20 2,867 2,916 2,862 2,867 2,854 2,886 32 1,117,138 1,269,404
Mar-20 2,850 2,850 2,822 2,822 2,813 2,842 29 38 770
May-20 2,746 2,771 2,729 2,736 2,723 2,749 26 143,710 309,792
Jul-20 2,743 2,765 2,738 2,738 2,728 2,752 24 120 448
Palm Oil
Turnover: 588,144 lots, or 26.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 4,270 4,270 4,270 0 0 0
Sep-19 4,442 4,482 4,426 4,460 4,418 4,452 34 318,376 288,390
Oct-19 4,610 4,610 4,488 4,588 4,478 4,562 84 6 14
Nov-19 – – – 4,654 4,654 4,654 0 0 14
Dec-19 – – – 4,712 4,760 4,712 -48 0 10
Jan-20 4,618 4,650 4,606 4,628 4,576 4,624 48 261,782 419,596
Feb-20 – – – 4,632 4,632 4,632 0 0 20
Mar-20 – – – 4,748 4,748 4,748 0 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,788 4,788 4,788 0 0 2
May-20 4,810 4,836 4,790 4,814 4,768 4,806 38 7,970 58,902
Jun-20 4,820 4,820 4,820 4,820 4,692 4,820 128 2 2
Jul-20 4,866 4,876 4,806 4,876 4,832 4,840 8 8 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 830,352 lots, or 48.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 5,338 5,338 5,338 0 0 0
Sep-19 5,690 5,728 5,656 5,710 5,626 5,692 66 202,312 348,974
Nov-19 5,802 5,872 5,802 5,852 5,748 5,842 94 6 14
Dec-19 5,840 5,840 5,840 5,840 5,808 5,840 32 2 38
Jan-20 5,850 5,904 5,830 5,874 5,802 5,864 62 603,568 724,906
Mar-20 – – – 5,904 5,842 5,904 62 0 8
May-20 5,890 5,938 5,880 5,916 5,850 5,908 58 24,458 87,914
Jul-20 5,914 5,948 5,914 5,918 5,826 5,926 100 6 4
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322