About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. June Coffee, Cocoa Imports-Aug 2
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Jun 2019—- —-May 2019—-
-coffee kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 137,804,407 303,858,717 152,485,327 336,230,146
coffee, roasted 7,824,858 17,253,812 9,009,165 19,865,209
coffee, soluble
instant 3,584,485 7,903,789 4,637,585 10,225,875
-Cocoa-
cocoa beans 19,320,797 42,602,357 41,064,516 90,547,258
sweetened bars/block
10 lbs or over 2,611,853 5,759,136 2,885,972 6,363,568
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 9,572,616 21,107,618 12,866,181 28,369,929
cocoa paste,
not defatted 4,178,526 9,213,650 3,245,451 7,156,219
cocoa paste
defatted 4,558,447 10,051,376 4,099,416 9,039,212
cocoa powder,
unsweetened 10,640,734 23,462,818 12,897,228 28,438,388
cocoa powder,
sweetened 44,731 98,632 29,440 64,915
confectioners
coating 3,206,592 7,070,535 3,540,293 7,806,346
candy containing
chocolate 10,694,721 23,581,860 9,253,056 20,402,988

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower for the week and weekly charts show that futures made new lows for the move. The weather has been considered good for Cotton production in the US. It has been warm but there have been showers to support good development. Crop development remains on about an average pace and bolls should start to form soon. Demand remains a big problem for Cotton. World demand has been less this year as China has not been buying. World prices have been lower as a result. The situation is bad enough that Indian spinners have been cutting back on operations. USDA will note less demand for US Cotton as well, primarily due to the trade disputes the US government has started against China and other major world importers. US production prospects have improved after a rough start to the season. The main problem area continues to be the Texas Panhandle. It has generally been very hot and dry in much of the Panhandle but conditions have improved and crop ratings have gone higher. Overall US production prospects remain strong as most other areas are in good condition and USDA has kept condition ratings generally strong.
Overnight News: The Delta should see mostly dry conditions and the Southeast could get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be mostly near to below normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will trend to above normal. The USDA average price is now 53.76 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 28,088 bales, from 28,823 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 5780 December. Support is at 5900, 5840, and 5780 December, with resistance of 6170, 6290, and 6400 December.

DJ U.S. June Cotton Exports-Aug 2
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Jun 19 May 19 Apr 19 Jun 18(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 17,357,998 24,217,252 23,711,754 17,901,289
1 to 1 1/8 inch 120,195,381 117,650,352 103,818,495 120,683,637
upland 1 1/8 and over 219,886,371 246,313,793 248,146,768 163,724,035
Amer Pima, over 1 1/8 inc 9,816,533 10,477,242 7,205,404 8,595,384
All cotton 367,256,283 398,658,639 382,882,421 310,904,345
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Jun 19 May 19 Apr 19 Jun 18(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 79,725 111,229 108,907 82,220
1 to 1 1/8 inch 552,053 540,364 476,834 554,295
upland 1 1/8 and over 1,009,930 1,131,310 1,139,729 751,978
Amer Pima, over 1 1/8 inc 45,087 48,122 33,094 39,478
All cotton 1,686,794 1,831,024 1,758,565 1,427,972

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 258,719
: Positions :
: 34,628 81,838 57,372 76,228 84,100 75,813 20,788 244,041 244,098: 14,678 14,622
: Changes from: July 23, 2019 (Change in open interest: 2,563) :
: -30 -2,173 3,029 487 1,907 -3 -176 3,482 2,587: -919 -24
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.4 31.6 22.2 29.5 32.5 29.3 8.0 94.3 94.3: 5.7 5.7
: Total Traders: 304 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 75 107 88 57 54 47 21 233 221:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was slightly higher yesterday as the tropical weather in the Atlantic started to get more active. The weather in Florida has remained tranquil as the state has seen frequent showers and storms that have greatly reduced irrigation needs. There are no tropical systems likely to hit the state this week, but some waves are forming that could bring at least an increase in shower activity to the state. For now the National Hurricane Center rates the possibility that these systems develop into hurricanes or major tropical storms as low. Trends are sideways to down on the daily charts as the market looks at a big orange crop and weak demand for FCOJ. USDA kept its production estimates above 71 million boxes in the production reports. Inventories in Florida are still 15% above a year ago. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are as big as baseballs. Crop conditions are called good. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers each day. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers today, then drier weather and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 97.00 and 92.00 September. Support is at 99.00, 95.00, and 92.00 September, with resistance at 102.00, 104.00, and 106.00 September.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Aug 1
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 7/27/2019 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
7/27/2019 7/28/2018 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 320.78 274.34 16.9%
Retail/Institutional 5.75 5.79 -0.7%
Total 326.54 280.13 16.6%
Pack
Bulk 0.80 0.44 82.8%
Retail/Institutional 1.10 1.57 -30.1%
Total Pack 1.90 2.01 -5.5%
Reprocessed -1.90 -2.01 -5.5%
Pack from Fruit 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.01 -0.05 -89.3%
Imports – Foreign 3.11 0.18 1674.6%
Domestic Receipts 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.01 -100.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.03 0.00 NA
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 322.83 272.90 18.3%
Retail/Institutional 6.85 7.36 -7.0%
Total 329.67 280.27 17.6%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 4.40 4.16 5.6%
Exports 0.22 0.20 8.4%
Total (Bulk) 4.62 4.36 5.8%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.20 1.26 -4.8%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.20 1.26 -4.8%
Total Movement 5.82 5.63 3.4%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 318.21 268.54 18.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.65 6.10 -7.5%
Ending Inventory 323.86 274.64 17.9%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
27-Jul-19 28-Jul-18 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 237.21 185.02 28.2%
Retail/Institutional 5.92 7.20 -17.8%
Total 243.13 192.21 26.5%
Pack
Bulk 143.24 90.10 59.0%
Retail/Institutional 52.00 53.58 -2.9%
Total Pack 195.25 143.67 35.9%
Reprocessed -107.96 -102.58 5.2%
Pack from Fruit 87.29 41.10 112.4%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -1.14 0.82 39.6%
Imports – Foreign 249.18 273.71 -9.0%
Domestic Receipts 10.13 8.36 21.1%
Receipts of Florida Produ 0.07 0.52 -87.2%
from Non-Reporting Entit 3.56 1.17 203.7%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 3.21 0.61 424.6%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 537.49 457.72 17.4%
Retail/Institutional 57.92 60.77 -4.7%
Total 595.41 518.50 14.8%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 202.16 175.86 15.0%
Domestic 17.12 13.32 28.6%
Exports 219.29 189.18 15.9%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 52.27 54.67 -4.4%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 52.27 54.67 -4.4%
Total Movement 271.56 243.86 11.4%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 318.21 268.54 18.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.65 6.10 -7.5%
Ending Inventory 323.86 274.64 17.9%

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 23,832 :
: Positions :
: 13,355 9,306 1,286 0 70 602 7,511 120 1,109 1,061 3,758 :
: Changes from: July 23, 2019 :
: -197 36 3 0 0 52 -4 0 104 -72 -16 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 56.0 39.0 5.4 0.0 0.3 2.5 31.5 0.5 4.7 4.5 15.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 79 :
: 24 12 6 0 . . 21 . 19 6 13 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures closed lower in both markets as the export pace from Brazil remained above 2.8 million bags per month. It seems that the exporters are using old Coffee along with some new Coffee to keep the pace as strong as it is. The new harvest is starting to become available so the country should be able to keep up a strong export pace for at least the next few months. The Brazil harvest is moving along and producers are trying to store the crop due to the current low prices. Reports indicate that the yields are not real strong and that the quality of the crop is poor due to extreme weather seen early in the growing season. Vietnam is also reporting lower yields for the current crop as the weather was not good for flowering earlier in the year. There have been some hot and dry spells that have hurt yield and quality for these crops as well, but showers are reported in the Central Highlands now and ideas are that conditions and production potential have improved. Central America has Coffee on offer, but bid prices from buyers have been very low.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.355 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 97.19 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above temperatures. Showers are possible on Saturday. Vietnam will see scattered and mostly light showers and storms.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 95.00, 94.00, and 87.00 September. Support is at 96.00, 95.00, and 93.00 September, and resistance is at 99.00, 100.00 and 102.00 September. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1290 and 1240 September. Support is at 1280, 1250, and 1220 September, and resistance is at 1340, 1380, and 1400 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 343,729
: Positions :
: 32,825 65,395 85,184 130,342 149,599 73,631 30,719 321,981 330,896: 21,748 12,833
: Changes from: July 23, 2019 (Change in open interest: 12,697) :
: 600 9,502 3,339 4,477 -6,346 1,454 4,271 9,869 10,765: 2,828 1,932
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.5 19.0 24.8 37.9 43.5 21.4 8.9 93.7 96.3: 6.3 3.7
: Total Traders: 471 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 146 115 153 134 118 47 28 409 348:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/30/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
148,945 85,560 63,589 21,157 9,823 2,053
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 57.4% 42.7% 14.2% 6.6% 1.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
158 57 47 16 7 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
==============================================================================
5,023 41,638 10,493 3,914 1,120 15,857
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.4% 28.0% 7.0% 2.6% 0.8% 10.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
11 35 14 12 10 20
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,889 4,373
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.3% 2.9%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed unchanged in New York and a little higher in London. Support came from Above who reported a slower crush of Sugarcane in its latest report a couple of weeks ago and still strong processing of the cane into Ethanol. The recent freeze may have hurt some of the cane. World supplies still appear ample for the demand potential. Reports from India indicate that the country still has a large surplus of White Sugar that probably must be exported. India is reporting below normal monsoon rains, but rains have been much better lately. There are concerns that the Indian monsoon will not be strong this year and that Sugarcane production could be hurt. Processing of Sugarcane in Brazil is slower and the pace of the crush is behind last year. Mills are refining mostly for ethanol right now as has been the case all season. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil is good enough and India has improved to support some of the big production ideas. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather but a few showers this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1170 and 1140 October. Support is at 1180, 1150, and 1140 October, and resistance is at 1220, 1230, and 1240 October. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 328.00 and 337.00 October. Support is at 320.00, 318.00, and 312.00 October, and resistance is at 328.00, 331.00, and 333.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,086,225
: Positions :
: 116,986 264,095 226,189 373,024 446,882 283,857 75,931 1,000,056 1,013,097: 86,169 73,128
: Changes from: July 23, 2019 (Change in open interest: 1,584) :
: 7,375 -13,418 5,991 -9,170 11,507 -3,956 1,797 240 5,878: 1,344 -4,294
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.8 24.3 20.8 34.3 41.1 26.1 7.0 92.1 93.3: 7.9 6.7
: Total Traders: 257 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 56 65 85 81 77 34 17 220 204:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/30/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
106,826 58,870 30,890 9,665 6,199 2,197
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 55.1% 28.9% 9.0% 5.8% 2.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
148 54 40 11 7 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
14,898 51,775 6,787 4,507 297 5,072
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
13.9% 48.5% 6.4% 4.2% 0.3% 4.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
20 27 14 12 5 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,831 3,609
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.5% 3.4%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower, with New York in down trends but with London looking like higher prices are possible on the weekly charts. Some of the selling in New York was currency related as the US Dollar has held very strong. The uneven weather in West Africa is still a feature. The weather in Ivory Coast has been dryer than normal for the last couple of weeks and there is some talk that production of the next main crop could be hurt. Some showers are returning to West Africa now to help relieve stress on trees. Ideas are that the next crop will be good. The harvest will start in the Fall. Growing and harvesting conditions in Asia are also reported to be good. The harvest is ongoing amid showers, but good progress in the harvest is expected at this time. More and more Asian Cocoa has been staying at home and processed in Indonesia for export in the region. Demand in Asia has been growing and Indonesia has been eager to be the primary source of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.276 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2280, 2260, and 2220 September, with resistance at 2360, 2390, and 2400 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1800, 1780, and 1760 September, with resistance at 1860, 1870, and 1890 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 312,138
: Positions :
: 51,445 32,590 66,309 118,194 180,642 61,206 22,949 297,154 302,490: 14,984 9,648
: Changes from: July 23, 2019 (Change in open interest: -10,881) :
: -2,628 1,608 -2,454 -5,154 -11,154 -444 1,945 -10,679 -10,055: -202 -827
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.5 10.4 21.2 37.9 57.9 19.6 7.4 95.2 96.9: 4.8 3.1
: Total Traders: 222 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 78 55 82 41 39 33 15 195 155:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/30/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
367,876 198,934 246,864 18,940 33,721 27,683
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 54.1% 67.1% 5.1% 9.2% 7.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
151 49 46 11 8 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
59,883 4,309 27,449 4,229 175 26,290
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
16.3% 1.2% 7.5% 1.1% 0.0% 7.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
36 8 13 15 8 22
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,468 1,383
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.2% 0.4%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322