About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 5
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL August Aug. 06, 2019 576 Aug 02, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL August Aug. 06, 2019 223 Aug 02, 2019
SOYBEAN August Aug. 06, 2019 1232 Aug 02, 2019

Alerts History
• 05-Aug-2019 04:29:21 AM – CHINA STATE PLANNER SAYS U.S. ACCUSATIONS THAT CHINA HAS NOT PURCHASED U.S. AGRICULTURE PRODUCTS ARE FALSE – STATE MEDIA
• 05-Aug-2019 04:31:30 AM – CHINA STATE PLANNER SAYS 2 MLN TONNES OF U.S. SOYBEANS DESTINED FOR CHINA WILL BE LOADED IN AUGUST – STATE MEDIA
• 05-Aug-2019 04:34:38 AM – CHINA STATE PLANNER SAYS CHINA HAS BOUGHT 130,000 TONNES OF SOYBEANS, 120,000 TONNES OF SORGHUM, 60,000 TONNES OF WHEAT, 40,000 TONNES OF PORK AND PRODUCTS, 25,000 TONNES OF COTTON FROM U.S. BETWEEN JULY 19 AND AUG 2 – STATE MEDIA
• 05-Aug-2019 04:35:50 AM – CHINA STATE PLANNER SAYS CHINESE FIRMS HAVE APPLIED FOR TARIFF EXEMPTIONS ON VARIOUS U.S. AGRICULTURE PRODUCTS THEY BOUGHT SINCE JULY – STATE MEDIA
• 05-Aug-2019 04:38:23 AM – CHINA STATE PLANNER SAYS CHINA AND U.S. AGREED THAT CHINA WILL BUY 14 MLN TONNES OF SOYBEANS FROM U.S. – STATE MEDIA
China’s NDRC says U.S. soybean cargoes will load in Aug- state media – Reuters
05-Aug-2019 04:52:59 AM
To view this story on Eikon, click here
BEIJING, Aug 5 (Reuters) – China’s state planner said on Monday that 2 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans destined for China will be loaded in August, according to state media, as it dismissed claims that China has not been purchasing U.S. agricultural products.
The National Development and Reform Commission said China bought 130,000 tonnes of soybeans, 120,000 tonnes of sorghum, 60,000 tonnes of wheat, 40,000 tonnes of pork and products, and 25,000 tonnes of cotton from the United States between July 19 and Aug. 2, state broadcaster CCTV reported.
Chinese firms have applied for tariff exemptions on those purchases, the report said.

DJ U.S. June Grain Exports-Aug 2
In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Jun 19 May 19 Apr 19 Jun 18(*)
Barley 4,244,000 4,175,958 4,307,261 4,405,893
Corn /1 3,068,898,000 4,689,879,000 5,472,181,000 7,117,203,000
Sorghum 316,164,000 270,316,000 124,286,000 42,928,000
Oats 3,974,738 1,942,819 1,536,428 3,467,741
Rye 511,222 550,000 30,000 466,347
Wheat /1 2,156,254,975 2,801,109,478 2,842,959,881 1,530,732,133
wheat flour /1 20,788,616 21,801,686 22,935,912 26,840,290
Malt 33,663,862 39,536,628 35,137,117 35,792,491
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
Jun 19 May 19 Apr 19 Jun 18(*)
Barley 194,923 191,798 197,829 202,359
Corn /1 120,815,938 184,630,486 215,428,039 280,189,030
Sorghum 12,446,699 10,641,762 4,892,873 1,689,983
Oats 273,835 133,848 105,850 238,906
Rye 20,126 21,652 1,181 18,359
Wheat /1 79,227,995 102,922,098 104,459,822 56,244,200
wheat flour /1 458,311 480,645 505,650 591,727
Malt 74,216,124 87,163,359 77,464,096 78,908,949
1/Includes commercial and donated.

DJ U.S. June Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Aug 2
In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Jun 19 May 19 Apr 19 Jun 18(*)
soybeans 3,193,552,152 2,560,436,948 2,399,256,207 3,256,177,059
soy oil 43,269,288 93,319,407 67,260,563 103,568,034
crude 33,517,763 80,309,787 54,848,471 86,703,348
refined 113,445 81,671 269,364 94,936
other/1 9,280,684 12,554,494 11,760,032 16,432,424
hydrogenated 357,396 373,455 382,696 337,326
cottonseed oil 4,018,852 1,585,127 1,834,714 3,165,861
crude 0 0 50,033 127,789
refined 3,268,241 861,300 1,350,346 1,831,602
other/1 750,611 723,827 434,335 1,206,470
hydrogenated 0 0 0 0
sunseeds 2,284,841 1,995 13,964 2,969,385
sunseed oil 8,687,316 8,445,942 3,418,492 3,338,918
rapeseed 24,595,212 4,916,672 48,499,551 12,580,113
rapeseed oil 8,889,462 7,490,362 6,277,562 9,117,152
crude 3,959,998 2,221,525 466,400 4,741,503
refined 4,929,464 5,268,837 5,811,162 4,375,649
linseed meal 66,719 266,278 84,329 260,211
cottonseed meal 4,744,546 6,108,089 10,785,281 14,534,737
soymeal 593,573,569 819,429,924 1,007,722,086 1,031,863,484
soymeal/flour 220,250,941 185,251,087 249,266,524 297,795,951
soymeal hulls 9,082,000 12,266,000 13,508,000 13,275,000
lard 5,566,310 1,855,826 838,291 1,311,315
edible tallow 9,760,551 10,089,035 9,480,138 8,877,623
inedible tallow 23,033,985 22,685,354 28,534,460 23,001,093
ch white grease 499,113 6,531 8,894 8,033
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
Jun 19 May 19 Apr 19 Jun 18(*)
soybeans 117,341,750 94,078,987 88,156,670 119,642,798
soyoil 95,392,468 205,734,111 148,284,184 228,328,470
crude 73,894,031 177,052,804 120,920,201 191,148,195
refined 250,103 180,054 593,846 209,298
other/1 20,460,409 27,677,926 25,926,437 36,227,300
hydrogenated 787,923 823,327 843,700 743,677
cottonseed oil 8,860,054 3,494,607 4,044,853 6,979,530
crude 0 0 110,304 281,727
refined 7,205,239 1,898,842 2,977,004 4,037,992
other/1 1,654,814 1,595,766 957,545 2,659,812
hydrogenated 0 0 0 0
sunseeds 5,037,213 4,398 30,785 6,546,374
sunseed oil 19,152,257 18,620,118 7,536,486 7,361,055
rapeseed 54,223,170 10,839,408 106,923,226 27,734,406
rapeseed oil 19,597,912 16,513,424 13,839,658 20,099,883
crude 8,730,303 4,897,625 1,028,236 10,453,227
refined 10,867,610 11,615,799 12,811,421 9,646,656
linseed meal 74 294 93 287
cottonseed meal 5,230 6,733 11,889 16,022
soymeal 654,296 903,258 1,110,812 1,137,423
soymeal flour/me 242,783 204,202 274,766 328,260
soymeal hulls 10,011 13,521 14,890 14,633
lard 12,271,615 4,091,397 1,848,116 2,890,955
edible tallow 21,518,335 22,242,519 20,900,130 19,571,812
inedible tallow 50,781,253 50,012,653 62,907,727 50,708,739
ch white grease 1,100,356 14,398 19,608 17,710

DJ U.S. June Grain Imports-Aug 2
In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.
—-Jun 2019—- —-May 2019—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
durum wheat 903 1,991 526,562 1,161,069
spring wheat 6,097,718 13,445,468 5,444,171 12,004,397
winter wheat 442,207 975,066 17,325,925 38,203,665
wheat/meslin 46,472,413 102,471,671 16,127,228 35,560,538
TOTAL WHEAT 53,013,241 116,894,196 39,423,886 86,929,669
barley 4,994,349 11,012,540 4,196,753 9,253,840
oats 1,673,948 3,691,055 865,672 1,908,807
corn 18,716,826 41,270,601 42,482,343 93,673,566
other corn 3,235,656 7,134,621 4,737,754 10,446,748
TOTAL CORN 21,952,482 48,405,223 47,220,097 104,120,314

DJ U.S. Jun Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-Aug 2
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Jun 2019—- —-May 2019—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 40,278,099 88,813,208 45,290,491 99,865,533
palm kernel oil 8,283,916 18,266,035 29,601,418 65,271,127
palm oil 93,992,419 207,253,284 144,951,965 319,619,083
soybean 17,035,226 37,562,673 14,050,984 30,982,420
soymeal 0 0 0 0
soyoil 15,935,593 35,137,983 15,642,686 34,492,123
rapeseed oil
edible 149,475,753 329,594,035 145,927,969 321,771,172
rapeseed oil,
inedible 53,517 118,005 81,226 179,103

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower again last week, with Chicago SHRW prices the weakest on weaker world values due in large part to the stronger US Dollar. Spring Wheat futures were slightly lower. The Winter Wheat harvest is moving to completion now under mostly good conditions. Harvesting is complete in the central and southern Great Plains and in most of the Midwest. Only the northern Great Plains has much left to harvest and this area will drag its harvest out for several more weeks. The yield and quality reports for HRW have been very good. We still have not heard much about the SRW crop but the price action suggests good yields there too. Spring Wheat has held better on uneven conditions in Canada as well as hot and dry weather in Spring Wheat areas of Russia and surrounding countries. Rains in the Canadian Prairies have been mostly in northern sections and southern sections have been dry. It has been a very dry year overall and there are ideas that yield potential is being affected. US Spring Wheat conditions have been mostly good as the primary growing areas in Montana and North Dakota have had good rains. The weather overseas has not been that good. Europe had some record-setting heat last week that caused the government to tell producers to stop harvesting due to fires that were breaking out in production areas. Yield reports have been good given the stressful weather. Other parts of western Europe have had dry weather and hot conditions as well. Russia has also had some very hot and dry weather in Spring Wheat areas that have caused stress to crops. Winter Wheat areas near the Black Sea appear to be in relatively good condition. The market is watching conditions in Brazil, where production ideas have been hurt due to freezing temperatures in Parana over the last few weeks. Ideas are that Brazil will become a bigger importer this year and will buy primarily from Argentina but also could buy some significant amounts from the US. However, export demand for US Wheat has not been very strong so far this year and this has been a part of the recent price weakness.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered and light showers this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 469, 465, and 460 September. Support is at 483, 474, and 472 September, with resistance at 493, 495, and 500 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 407, 390, and 384 September. Support is at 411, 403, and 393 September, with resistance at 426, 430, and 436 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 502 and 497 September. Support is at 514, 512, and 509 September, and resistance is at 525, 528, and 533 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 496,762
: Positions :
: 59,995 83,451 172,065 69,799 133,319 162,663 61,502 464,523 450,337: 32,240 46,425
: Changes from: July 23, 2019 (Change in open interest: -26,858) :
: 3,760 -3,577 -24,705 1,071 2,708 -5,629 -1,155 -25,502 -26,729: -1,355 -129
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.1 16.8 34.6 14.1 26.8 32.7 12.4 93.5 90.7: 6.5 9.3
: Total Traders: 363 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 90 105 139 79 98 46 22 297 291:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 304,259
: Positions :
: 58,445 70,551 77,871 79,281 108,752 60,380 26,159 275,976 283,333: 28,283 20,926
: Changes from: July 23, 2019 (Change in open interest: -1,854) :
: 3,455 -2,426 -4,336 -3,012 2,246 2,089 2,906 -1,804 -1,611: -49 -243
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.2 23.2 25.6 26.1 35.7 19.8 8.6 90.7 93.1: 9.3 6.9
: Total Traders: 273 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 73 57 74 80 79 28 12 216 195:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 62,994 :
: Positions :
: 38,473 26,624 1,626 430 39 1,414 18,000 2,378 5,259 1,623 2,677 :
: Changes from: July 23, 2019 :
: 1,489 -844 22 176 0 -95 2,081 569 -444 -19 -1,102 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 61.1 42.3 2.6 0.7 0.1 2.2 28.6 3.8 8.3 2.6 4.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 87 :
: 52 39 . . . 5 8 5 6 8 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE 50 Metric Tons :
CFTC Code #00160F Open Interest is 24,866 :
: Positions :
: 7,136 21,523 3,752 28 1,016 9,964 240 965 791 0 276 :
: Changes from: July 23, 2019 :
: -24 477 360 -16 -430 155 240 -389 176 0 -213 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 28.7 86.6 15.1 0.1 4.1 40.1 1.0 3.9 3.2 0.0 1.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 27 :
: 8 14 . . . 4 . . . 0 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower last week and the weekly charts show that a reversal was made. Crops in the south are starting to be harvested with yield reports in Texas indicating that yields are behind last year at this early time in the progress. Crops in other areas look good but no one expects super yields due to the very uneven growing season including a lot of rain at planting time and then uneven conditions due to cooler temperatures and varying rains seen until recently. Arkansas could be the worst state this year as many producers could not get everything planted a had of enroll in the Prevent Plant program. Demand was weak in the weekly export sales report for the current year but moderately good for the new crop. Demand until now has generally been firm in export markets and USDA indicated in its monthly supply and demand updates that domestic demand has been much stronger than expected. Futures could stay lower this week as the market waits for the harvest to expand. An increase in farmer selling is anticipated on any further price strength.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1162, 1141, and 1134 September, with resistance at 1172, 1185, and 1189 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 9,757 :
: Positions :
: 3,713 6,456 130 0 0 2,589 430 15 612 1,003 756 :
: Changes from: July 23, 2019 :
: -211 1,588 -5 0 0 1,089 0 0 365 45 120 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 38.1 66.2 1.3 0.0 0.0 26.5 4.4 0.2 6.3 10.3 7.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 53 :
: 9 16 . 0 0 11 . . 7 12 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower as crop conditions continued to improve. The charts show that futures broke some important support areas and fund selling ensued. There was little buying interest until futures moved below 390 September, then some buying was found against a chart gap near 385 on the weekly charts. It has been cooler but mostly dry in the Midwest. Cooler and drier weather is expected this week after a bought of warmer temperatures and some showers over the next couple of days. Crops are generally reported to be in good condition with good color, but many areas are now too dry after the very wet Spring and early Summer and the crops need a good drink. The driest areas are in central Illinois, but dry conditions are noted in many areas throughout the Midwest. The Corn crop in general remains very late and Corn genetics mean that the crop can’t do much to catch up, especially with the generally cooler temperatures. Meanwhile, Corn is a market that needs some demand and the weekly export sales reports have not been strong. Overseas buyers can get cheaper Corn in Argentina. Demand for ethanol has also been less over the last few weeks on weaker processing margins. What happens to Corn prices this year will depend in large part on how the US crop develops. It is very late so even normal freeze dates could cause some big production losses.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 372 September. Support is at 396, 387, and 382 September, and resistance is at 406, 413, and 418 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 272 September. Support is at 261, 257, and 255 September, and resistance is at 272, 276, and 279 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,295,213
: Positions :
: 249,973 175,866 575,228 631,162 1,117,020 473,380 172,305 1,929,743 2,040,419: 365,470 254,794
: Changes from: July 23, 2019 (Change in open interest: -104,103) :
: -15,345 19,407 -53,604 -20,033 -50,290 -11,834 -9,821 -100,816 -94,308: -3,287 -9,795
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.9 7.7 25.1 27.5 48.7 20.6 7.5 84.1 88.9: 15.9 11.1
: Total Traders: 953 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 222 142 251 442 434 51 32 830 758:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 4,932 :
: Positions :
: 670 3,314 148 0 0 870 229 0 1,344 184 104 :
: Changes from: July 23, 2019 :
: 36 -326 0 0 0 -202 74 0 -21 155 2 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.6 67.2 3.0 0.0 0.0 17.6 4.6 0.0 27.2 3.7 2.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 25 :
: 5 8 . 0 0 6 . 0 4 . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were slightly higher on Friday and the products closed lower. Ideas of new demand from China offset ideas of strong competition for sales from South America and improved growing conditions. The US and China have agreed to meet again in September after discussions last week. The entire Midwest saw some cooler and drier weather last week that should have helped reduce stress on the plants. It will be warmer with some showers over the next couple of days but should be mostly dry and cooler again later this week. Soybeans were planted very late this year and not all crops are showing good progress. The plants remain small and stressed. Demand news was mixed last week as the export sales report showed weaker demand. There was some talk that China was getting active in buying some US Soybeans to help support futures at the end of last week but these reports were not confirmed and bases levels were reported to be steady. But, the two sides are talking again and China has removed tariffs on up to 3.0 million tons of Soybeans imports from the US by private industry there in a show of good will towards the talks. The problem is that the issues to be resolved are big and very complicated and will require a lot of time and work before success can be claimed by both sides.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 847, 845, and 834 September, and resistance is at 862, 878, and 881 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 291.00 September. Support is at 293.00, 291.00, and 287.00 September, and resistance is at 299.00, 303.00, and 305.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2780, 2760, and 2720 September, with resistance at 2850, 2890, and 2900 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 729,129
: Positions :
: 70,307 133,830 201,425 237,895 269,251 161,714 48,820 671,341 653,325: 57,788 75,804
: Changes from: July 23, 2019 (Change in open interest: -87,974) :
: -56 7,081 -47,508 -34,946 -45,913 -2,793 1,354 -85,303 -84,986: -2,671 -2,988
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.6 18.4 27.6 32.6 36.9 22.2 6.7 92.1 89.6: 7.9 10.4
: Total Traders: 566 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 129 130 201 172 197 46 26 464 468:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 450,640
: Positions :
: 69,499 101,104 89,149 121,165 199,842 138,060 30,810 417,873 420,905: 32,767 29,735
: Changes from: July 23, 2019 (Change in open interest: -19,020) :
: -1,813 -11,469 -7,600 -12,217 622 3,667 1,658 -17,963 -16,789: -1,057 -2,230
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.4 22.4 19.8 26.9 44.3 30.6 6.8 92.7 93.4: 7.3 6.6
: Total Traders: 326 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 72 87 105 71 73 37 22 254 244:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 455,791
: Positions :
: 38,902 73,184 112,070 160,493 203,061 97,726 36,896 409,190 425,211: 46,601 30,580
: Changes from: July 23, 2019 (Change in open interest: -29,018) :
: -1,213 8,353 -11,505 -16,453 -24,107 -1,618 -2,427 -30,789 -29,686: 1,771 668
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.5 16.1 24.6 35.2 44.6 21.4 8.1 89.8 93.3: 10.2 6.7
: Total Traders: 276 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 44 66 92 97 84 31 16 236 213:
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CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher on Friday in range trading. There was also some buying seen on hopes for progress in trade negotiations with China and the US last week. The weather forecasts call for moderate temperatures this week. Most areas are seeing better weather now, but the weather has been dry and sometimes hot in many growing areas until recently. Growing conditions are improving after rains in the last couple of weeks, but there are areas that are still reported to be too dry. Traders are expecting good but not great crops right now. Palm Oil was higher and gapped higher. The trade cited strength in Chicago but buying also probably came as the China-US trade war showed signs of heating up overnight. The market still expects limited upside potential, but the charts show that the market has broken out to the upside and that at least a short-term rally is happening now. There are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand. Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 437.00 November. Support is at 442.00, 440.00, and 437.00 November, with resistance at 446.00, 449.00, and 453.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2070 October. Support is at 2030, 2010, and 1980 October, with resistance at 2070, 2090, and 2120 October.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 30, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 163,136 :
: Positions :
: 130,009 43,351 3,167 2,507 665 10,715 76,592 5,518 3,365 23,677 8,740 :
: Changes from: July 23, 2019 :
: 4,266 1,528 -41 703 -13 -632 -503 216 -503 829 -1,735 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 79.7 26.6 1.9 1.5 0.4 6.6 46.9 3.4 2.1 14.5 5.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 249 :
: 29 39 5 . . 4 56 9 45 81 31 :
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DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Aug 2
By MarketsFarm
Winnipeg, Aug. 2 (MarketsFarm) – Due to the new crop marketing year,
which began on Thursday, August 1, grain statistics for Week 52 will be
released on August 8, 2019.
The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics for the week
ended July 21, 2019. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 1887.5 665.6 128.4 273.0 28.2 1018.8 203.7 261.0 5067.2
Week Ago 1973.6 575.8 131.7 257.0 23.7 1055.3 225.0 273.4 5122.9
Year Ago 2146.3 676.6 169.7 273.2 79.7 968.7 346.6 166.0 5283.9
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 256.3 78.0 18.3 31.8 2.5 326.6 23.6 12.7 802.5
Week Ago 327.7 107.9 28.9 42.8 3.3 360.5 34.7 13.1 987.1
To Date 20714.8 4565.3 2053.5 3337.9 377.2 17886.8 3240.2 567.3 56640.9
Year Ago 18103.2 3996.9 2134.9 3019.5 475.7 18600.4 2892.5 648.9 53923.4
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 336.3 68.7 1.2 22.6 3.1 138.9 28.1 2.6 702.3
Week Ago 271.6 33.0 0.3 19.1 0.7 228.4 49.0 0.5 734.5
To Date 20293.1 5035.6 414.8 1981.6 162.2 9769.0 2043.7 1384.7 47542.3
Year Ago 17763.9 4399.7 248.5 1735.2 228.1 10518.9 1941.4 1373.6 44101.9
EXPORTS
This Week 228.1 91.3 12.3 39.1 7.2 152.5 62.4 0.0 699.2
Week Ago 365.1 39.0 12.7 1.4 0.4 119.0 57.0 0.0 665.2
To Date 17763.5 4431.3 1476.4 2142.1 278.1 9047.6 2117.6 1708.4 43652.9
Year Ago 15854.1 3850.2 1473.6 1884.8 289.2 10057.1 2066.7 1316.8 41052.8
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 111.9 5.2 6.7 25.0 1.6 187.1 2.8 28.0 389.1
Week Ago 95.1 36.6 7.6 25.7 1.3 202.8 2.6 19.2 409.3
To Date 4066.3 365.3 311.3 1148.2 58.8 9294.1 206.9 1168.1 18686.9
Year Ago 4260.5 459.0 304.8 1227.6 54.5 9096.4 221.7 902.4 18767.4

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August +55 Sep +153 Sep +50 Sep +29 Nov +12 Aug N/A
September +40 Sep +68 Sep +27 Nov
October +42 Dic +68 Dic +27 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 2
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Aug. 2(MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Wednesday, July 31.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 426.00 -20.00 Nov 2019 up 2.50
Track Thunder Bay 459.80 12.00 Nov 2019 up 5.80
Track Vancouver 464.80 20.00 Nov 2019 up 2.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 5
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 522.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 527.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 535.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 555.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Aug 527.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 532.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 540.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 560.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 507.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 385.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 2,040 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 143 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1750)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 05
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 268,778 lots, or 9.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 3,370 3,422 3,362 3,399 3,365 3,391 26 209,840 115,646
Nov-19 3,426 3,467 3,409 3,424 3,405 3,426 21 98 336
Jan-20 3,389 3,430 3,384 3,428 3,385 3,411 26 53,522 83,364
Mar-20 – – – 3,419 3,399 3,419 20 0 32
May-20 3,542 3,581 3,541 3,574 3,536 3,559 23 5,318 29,668
Jul-20 – – – 3,561 3,526 3,561 35 0 10
Corn
Turnover: 612,646 lots, or 11.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 1,925 1,929 1,919 1,922 1,929 1,923 -6 229,570 570,448
Nov-19 1,954 1,956 1,948 1,950 1,951 1,951 0 122,976 332,350
Jan-20 1,981 1,983 1,976 1,979 1,983 1,979 -4 248,142 767,686
Mar-20 1,999 1,999 1,995 1,997 2,004 1,996 -8 164 2,148
May-20 2,039 2,043 2,038 2,039 2,043 2,040 -3 11,010 146,752
Jul-20 2,059 2,059 2,052 2,055 2,057 2,055 -2 784 1,388
Soymeal
Turnover: 3,195,500 lots, or 90.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 2,788 2,788 2,788 0 0 398
Sep-19 2,822 2,891 2,817 2,864 2,806 2,847 41 1,848,706 990,672
Nov-19 2,824 2,904 2,824 2,886 2,807 2,865 58 108,902 212,504
Dec-19 2,839 2,901 2,826 2,888 2,820 2,871 51 2,060 1,212
Jan-20 2,820 2,896 2,820 2,875 2,809 2,854 45 1,079,282 1,125,398
Mar-20 2,790 2,822 2,790 2,822 2,764 2,813 49 22 774
May-20 2,709 2,752 2,701 2,742 2,707 2,723 16 156,466 295,490
Jul-20 2,713 2,740 2,713 2,740 2,713 2,728 15 62 456
Palm Oil
Turnover: 717,186 lots, or 32.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 4,270 4,270 4,270 0 0 0
Sep-19 4,386 4,456 4,372 4,444 4,360 4,418 58 420,238 327,260
Oct-19 – – – 4,478 4,420 4,478 58 0 16
Nov-19 4,654 4,654 4,654 4,654 4,488 4,654 166 2 14
Dec-19 – – – 4,760 4,592 4,760 168 0 10
Jan-20 4,534 4,616 4,528 4,612 4,518 4,576 58 287,552 415,668
Feb-20 – – – 4,632 4,632 4,632 0 0 20
Mar-20 – – – 4,748 4,748 4,748 0 0 12
Apr-20 4,824 4,824 4,754 4,754 4,714 4,788 74 4 2
May-20 4,718 4,800 4,714 4,798 4,708 4,768 60 9,380 56,662
Jun-20 – – – 4,692 4,692 4,692 0 0 2
Jul-20 4,856 4,886 4,774 4,842 4,710 4,832 122 10 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,132,898 lots, or 65.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 5,338 5,338 5,338 0 0 32
Sep-19 5,574 5,690 5,558 5,676 5,546 5,626 80 389,934 374,574
Nov-19 5,742 5,800 5,708 5,748 5,648 5,748 100 8 12
Dec-19 5,846 5,846 5,772 5,772 5,668 5,808 140 4 38
Jan-20 5,718 5,864 5,718 5,850 5,710 5,802 92 713,534 691,444
Mar-20 – – – 5,842 5,750 5,842 92 0 8
May-20 5,770 5,906 5,770 5,896 5,762 5,850 88 29,410 86,916
Jul-20 5,798 5,840 5,798 5,840 5,770 5,826 56 8 4
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322