Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was lower as the USDA crop progress and condition reports showed improved crop ratings and on some Trump tweets. Crop progress is still in line with the five-year average and crop condition showed small improvement in the reports last night. The weather has been considered good for Cotton production in the US. It has been warm but there have been showers to support good development. Crop development remains on about an average pace and bolls should start to form soon. The president tweeted that China is not yet buying more agricultural goods despite promises to do so. He also said that a good solution for China will only get more difficult with time as US demands will increase and the US will become less willing to compromise. Demand remains a big problem for Cotton. World demand has been less this year as China has not been buying. World prices have been lower as a result and US prices have also been weak. US production prospects have improved after a rough start to the season. Overall US production prospects remain strong as most other areas are in good condition and USDA has kept condition ratings generally strong. The main problem will be finding buyers for the Cotton.
Overnight News: The Delta should see mostly dry conditions except for some showers and storms on Monday and the Southeast could get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be mostly near to below normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather, but a few showers could appear on Monday. Temperatures will trend to above normal. The USDA average price is now 57.37 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 30,437 bales, from 30,522 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6280, 6260, and 6170 December, with resistance of 6470, 6530, and 6550 December.
General Comments: FCOJ was slightly higher yesterday as the tropical weather in the Atlantic started to get more active. The weather in Florida has remained tranquil as the state has seen frequent showers and storms that have greatly reduced irrigation needs. There are no tropical systems likely to hit the state this week, but some waves are forming that could bring at least an increase in shower activity to the state. For now the National Hurricane Center rates the possibility that these systems develop into hurricanes or major tropical storms as low. Trends are sideways to down on the daily charts as the market looks at a big orange crop and weak demand for FCOJ. USDA kept its production estimates above 71 million boxes in the production reports. Inventories in Florida are still 15% above a year ago. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are as big as baseballs. Crop conditions are called good. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers each day. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers today, then drier weather and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 101.00, 99.00, and 95.00 September, with resistance at 104.00, 106.00, and 107.00 September.
General Comments: Futures closed lower in both markets on new forecasts for cold but not freezing, weather in Brazil. The new forecasts call for minimums in Coffee areas of Minas Gerais to remain at 2 C or higher. The Brazil harvest is moving along and producers are trying to store the crop due to the current low prices. Reports indicate that the yields are not real strong and that the quality of the crop is poor due to extreme weather seen early in the growing season. Reports from the recent freeze suggest little additional damage to crops, but some leaves were burned and some trees will be in shock for a while. Production potential for the crop next year could be affected. Vietnam is also reporting lower yields for the current crop as the weather was not good for flowering earlier in the year. There have been some hot and dry spells that have hurt yield and quality for these crops as well, but showers are reported in the Central Highlands now and ideas are that conditions and production potential have improved. Central America has Coffee on offer but bid prices from buyers have been very low.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.362 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 98.65 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above temperatures. Showers are possible on Saturday. Vietnam will see scattered and mostly light showers and storms.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 99.00, 95.00, and 94.00 September. Support is at 99.00, 96.00, and 95.00 September, and resistance is at 102.00, 105.00 and 106.00 September. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1320 September. Support is at 1320, 1310, and 1280 September, and resistance is at 1380, 1400, and 1420 September.
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher on forecasts for more cold weather in Brazil. Another round of cold temperatures is forecast for central south Sugar areas this week that could hurt more of the Sugarcane crop. Current forecasts are calling for temperatures to remain above 0C so the threat of damage is diminished. The recent freeze may have hurt some of the cane. World supplies still appear ample for the demand potential and growing conditions for much of the world are called good The main exception is Europe and on east into Russia where it has been hot and dry. Ukraine and Russia have seen improved rains over the last couple of weeks, but western areas are still stressed. Reports from India indicate that the country still has a large surplus of White Sugar that probably must be exported. India is reporting below normal monsoon rains, but rains have been much better lately and growing conditions are currently called good. There are concerns that the Indian monsoon will not be strong this year and that Sugarcane production could be hurt. Processing of Sugarcane in Brazil is slower and the pace of the crush is behind last year. Mills are refining mostly for ethanol right now as has been the case all season. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand and southern China.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather but a few showers this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1220, 1280, and 1290 October. Support is at 1180, 1150, and 1140 October, and resistance is at 1230, 1240, and 1260 October. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 328.00 and 337.00 October. Support is at 318.00, 312.00, and 311.00 October, and resistance is at 325.00, 328.00, and 331.00 October.
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower again in New York and a little higher again in London. The British Pound has turned weaker and this has caused the change in the spreads between the two markets. The uneven weather in West Africa is still a feature. The weather in Ivory Coast has been dryer than normal for the last couple of weeks and there is some talk that production of the next main crop could be hurt. Some showers are returning to West Africa now to help relieve stress on trees. Rains were above average last week. Ideas are that the next crop will be good. The harvest will start in the Fall. East Africa is also seeing increased shower activity. Growing and harvesting conditions in Asia are also reported to be good. The harvest is ongoing amid showers, but good progress in the harvest is expected at this time. More and more Asian Cocoa has been staying at home and processed in Indonesia for export in the region. Demand in Asia has been growing and Indonesia has been eager to be the primary source of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.290 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2330 September. Support is at 2350, 2320, and 2280 September, with resistance at 2430, 2450, and 2470 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1830, 1810, and 1780 September, with resistance at 1860, 1870, and 1890 September.