About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 31
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL August Aug. 01, 2019 404 Jul 25, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL August Aug. 01, 2019 1057 Jul 30, 2019
SOYBEAN August Aug. 01, 2019 408 Jul 01, 2019

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower along with the Corn and Soybeans as speculators turned sellers. There was no real demand news to keep the buyers involved. The Winter Wheat harvest is moving to completion now under mostly good conditions. USDA showed that the harvest is mostly done in the central and southern Great Plains but is just started in the north. The yield and quality reports for HRW have been very good. Spring Wheat has held better on uneven conditions in Canada and despite generally good growing conditions in the US. Rains in the Prairies have been mostly in northern sections and southern sections have been dry. It has been a very dry year overall and there are ideas that yield potential is being affected. US Spring Wheat conditions have been mostly good as the primary growing areas in Montana and North Dakota have had good rains. The weather overseas has not been that good. Europe had some record-setting heat last week that caused the government to tell producers to stop harvesting due to fires that were breaking out in production areas. Yield reports have been good given the stressful weather. Other parts of western Europe have had dry weather and hot conditions as well. Russia has also had some very hot and dry weather in Spring Wheat areas that have caused stress to crops. Winter Wheat areas near the Black Sea appear to be in relatively good condition. World prices have been generally firming and have been providing some support to US prices. The market is watching conditions in Brazil, where much of the Winter Wheat crop froze during the recent bout of sub freezing temperatures. Cold temperatures are possible again this week. Ideas are that Brazil will become a bigger importer this year and will buy primarily from Argentina but also could buy some significant amounts from the US.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered and light showers this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 493, 487, and 483 September, with resistance at 507, 510, and 514 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 430, 427, and 425 September, with resistance at 440, 443, and 450 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 539 and 552 September. Support is at 525, 520, and 515 September, and resistance is at 533, 538, and 543 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher early yesterday but could not make new highs for the move. Speculators and perhaps some farmers turned sellers and the market closed lower and just off the lows of the day. Chart trends remain up but now show the potential for a further down side correction after the recent rally. Crops in the south are being drained from the flood or will start soon and that means that the harvest is just getting started. Sources in Texas expect a good crop, but probably not top yields. Below trend yields are expected in much of the Rice Belt. Crops look good but no one expects super yields due to the very uneven growing season including a lot of rain at planting time and then uneven conditions due to cooler temperatures and varying rains seen until recently. Arkansas could be the worst state this year as many producers could not get everything planted a had of enroll in the Prevent Plant program. Demand until now has generally been firm in export markets.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1243 and 1250 September. Support is at 1207, 1203, and 1196 September, with resistance at 1215, 1234, and 1236 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower on the slight improvement in Corn crop condition and on some presidential tweets. President Trump tweeted that China was not living up to its promise to buy more US ag goods and also stated that China needed to be serious in the trade talks this week. He said that China was probably trying to wait until the next election but that negotiations would only get harder and more difficult for China if they do. US weather is more benign than previously although far from perfect. The Midwest and much of the Great Plains will enjoy below normal temperatures although it will remain rather dry. The cool temperatures will not promote rapid growth, but there will be growth and the condition should stay generally good. Meanwhile, Corn is a market that needs some demand and the weekly export sales reports have not been strong. Demand for ethanol has also started to go down on weaker processing margins. This has been a big topic in the press in recent days. What happens to Corn prices this year will depend in large part on how the US crop develops. It is very late so even normal freeze dates could cause some big production losses. A good crop is possible, but the producer will need a late freeze to get the crop home.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 400, 394, and 372 September. Support is at 405, 400, and 396 September, and resistance is at 418, 421, and 424 September. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 255 and 254 September. Support is at 255, 252, and 249 September, and resistance is at 261, 265, and 268 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower primarily on presidential tweets about China and the trade talks. Soybeans moved to test the recent lows before bouncing. The market is waiting for news this week from Shanghai as the US and China are trying to resolve trade and economic differences once again. President Trump tweeted that China was not living up to its promise to buy more US ag goods and also stated that China needed to be serious in the trade talks this week. He said that China was probably trying to wait until the next election but that negotiations would only get harder and more difficult for China if they do. The two sides are talking again and China has removed tariffs on up to 3.0 million tons of Soybeans imports from the US by private industry there in a show of good will towards the talks. The problem is that the issues to be resolved are big and very complicated and will require a lot of time and work before success can be claimed by both sides. USDA showed slow crop progress and stable crop condition ratings in its report this week. The entire Midwest should be mostly dry and cooler again this week. Soybeans were planted very late this year and not all crops are showing good progress. The plants remain small and some do not seem to be developing much at all. The two sides are talking again and China has removed tariffs on up to 3.0 million tons of Soybeans imports from the US by private industry there in a show of good will towards the talks. The problem is that the issues to be resolved are big and very complicated and will require a lot of time and work before success can be claimed by both sides.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 872 and 857 September. Support is at 877, 871, and 862 September, and resistance is at 887, 896, and 901 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 300.00, 299.00, and 296.00 September. Support is at 302.00, 297.00, and 296.00 September, and resistance is at 305.00, 307.00, and 310.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2830, 2800, and 2760 September, with resistance at 2900, 2940, and 2950 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower yesterday in range trading. There was also some buying seen on hopes for progress in trade negotiations with China and the US this week. The weather forecasts call for moderate temperatures this week. Most areas are seeing better weather now, but the weather has been dry and sometimes hot in many growing areas until recently. Growing conditions are improving after rains in the last couple of weeks, but there are areas that are still reported to be too dry. Traders are expecting good but not great crops right now. Palm Oil was closed for a holidays. The market still expects limited upside potential, but the charts show that the market has broken out to the upside and that at least a short-term rally is happening now. There are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand. Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 446.00, 442.00, and 437.00 November, with resistance at 453.00, 457.00, and 459.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2070 October. Support is at 2030, 2010, and 1980 October, with resistance at 2070, 2090, and 2120 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July +51 Sep +152 Sep +40 Sep +52 Aug +12 Aug N/A
August +42 Sep +55 Sep +50 Aug
September +45 Sep +68 Sep +33 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
July
August
September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 30
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, July 30 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Monday, July 29.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 430.50 -20.00 Nov 2019 dn 1.10
Track Thunder Bay 460.40 12.00 Nov 2019 dn 1.00
Track Vancouver 468.40 20.00 Nov 2019 dn 1.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 31
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 517.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 522.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 535.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 557.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Aug 522.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 527.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 540.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 562.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 492.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 367.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 2,010 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 142 -06.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1285

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 31
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 96,174 lots, or 3.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 3,376 3,394 3,370 3,383 3,379 3,384 5 78,728 136,608
Nov-19 3,423 3,423 3,423 3,423 3,443 3,423 -20 62 380
Jan-20 3,390 3,407 3,389 3,395 3,394 3,396 2 16,510 75,854
Mar-20 – – – 3,465 3,463 3,465 2 0 30
May-20 3,523 3,531 3,516 3,527 3,522 3,525 3 872 27,198
Jul-20 3,522 3,522 3,522 3,522 3,520 3,522 2 10
Corn
Turnover: 443,262 lots, or 8.65 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 1,926 1,930 1,923 1,930 1,928 1,926 -2 240,776 706,922
Nov-19 1,952 1,954 1,948 1,953 1,953 1,950 -3 32,806 368,324
Jan-20 1,974 1,980 1,974 1,980 1,980 1,976 -4 148,836 719,364
Mar-20 1,997 1,998 1,993 1,997 1,998 1,995 -3 760 2,284
May-20 2,037 2,041 2,035 2,040 2,041 2,038 -3 19,136 141,338
Jul-20 2,065 2,065 2,056 2,059 2,060 2,060 0 948 1,024
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,643,328 lots, or 45.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 2,706 2,894 2,706 2,720 2,799 2,788 -11 20 704
Sep-19 2,785 2,809 2,781 2,799 2,787 2,794 7 1,098,276 1,176,334
Nov-19 2,795 2,818 2,791 2,810 2,795 2,805 10 68,786 236,574
Dec-19 2,806 2,816 2,806 2,816 2,809 2,811 2 38 1,098
Jan-20 2,818 2,827 2,804 2,818 2,812 2,815 3 403,786 878,724
Mar-20 2,763 2,767 2,750 2,765 2,756 2,755 -1 4,882 734
May-20 2,739 2,739 2,716 2,723 2,728 2,724 -4 67,464 264,812
Jul-20 2,740 2,740 2,722 2,727 2,732 2,727 -5 76 404
Palm Oil
Turnover: 318,994 lots, or 14.09 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 4,270 4,270 4,270 0 0 0
Sep-19 4,360 4,378 4,338 4,358 4,360 4,352 -8 212,900 387,242
Oct-19 4,410 4,410 4,410 4,410 4,442 4,410 -32 2 16
Nov-19 – – – 4,362 4,392 4,362 -30 0 14
Dec-19 – – – 4,592 4,592 4,592 0 0 10
Jan-20 4,538 4,554 4,516 4,534 4,544 4,534 -10 101,034 356,506
Feb-20 4,624 4,624 4,620 4,620 4,644 4,620 -24 6 14
Mar-20 – – – 4,748 4,748 4,748 0 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,714 4,714 4,714 0 0 2
May-20 4,724 4,740 4,706 4,722 4,728 4,724 -4 5,052 44,736
Jun-20 – – – 4,692 4,692 4,692 0 0 2
Jul-20 – – – 4,710 4,710 4,710 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 443,816 lots, or 25.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 5,420 5,468 5,186 5,468 5,398 5,338 -60 38 32
Sep-19 5,568 5,588 5,538 5,554 5,576 5,562 -14 224,548 502,172
Nov-19 – – – 5,650 5,650 5,650 0 0 4
Dec-19 5,690 5,690 5,666 5,666 5,706 5,678 -28 4 30
Jan-20 5,740 5,754 5,696 5,708 5,740 5,722 -18 207,672 535,958
Mar-20 – – – 5,770 5,770 5,770 0 0 10
May-20 5,812 5,824 5,770 5,780 5,808 5,794 -14 11,554 82,894
Jul-20 – – – 5,750 5,700 5,750 50 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322