About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower but bounced off the lows of the day for a moderately lower close. A stronger US Dollar hurt Cotton prices as did a lack of demand news from China. Crop progress is still in line with the five-year average and crop condition showed small improvement in the reports last night. The weather has been considered good for Cotton production in the US. It has been warm but there have been showers to support good development. Crop development remains on about an average pace and bolls should start to form soon. Demand remains a big problem for Cotton. World demand has been less this year as China has not been buying. World prices have been lower as a result and US prices have also been weak. US production prospects have improved after a rough start to the season. The main problem area continues to be the Texas Panhandle. It has generally been very hot and dry in much of the Panhandle but conditions have improved and crop ratings have gone a bit higher. Overall US production prospects remain strong as most other areas are in good condition and USDA has kept condition ratings generally strong. The main problem will be finding buyers for the Cotton and that could mean that lower prices are needed.
Overnight News: The Delta should see mostly dry conditions except for some showers and storms on Monday and the Southeast could get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be mostly near to below normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather, but a few showers could appear on Monday. Temperatures will trend to above normal. The USDA average price is now 58.27 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 30,522 bales, from 30,522 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 6650 and 6920 December. Support is at 6330, 6290, and 6260 December, with resistance of 6470, 6530, and 6550 December.

Crop Progress
Date 28-Jul 21-Jul 2018 Avg
Cotton Squaring 86 78 87 87
Cotton Setting Bolls 45 33 48 48
Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 1 10 28 46 15
Cotton Last Week 2 8 30 50 10
Cotton Last Year 11 19 27 34 9

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was slightly lower again yesterday. The weather in Florida remained tranquil as the state has seen frequent showers and storms that have greatly reduced irrigation needs. There are no tropical systems likely to hit the state this week. Futures appear poised to move back to or below 90.00 seen earlier in the year. Speculators have been buying in anticipation of the hurricane season, but there are no storms on the horizon this early in the season. The state has seen only an increase in showers and storms that have been beneficial for crops. Trends are sideways to down on the daily charts as the market looks at a big orange crop and weak demand for FCOJ. USDA kept its production estimates above 71 million boxes in the production reports. Inventories in Florida are still 15% above a year ago. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are as big as baseballs. Crop conditions are called good. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers each day. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers today, then drier weather and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 101.00, 99.00, and 95.00 September, with resistance at 104.00, 106.00, and 107.00 September.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Jul 30
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
7/20/2019 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
7/20/2019 7/21/2018 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 323.58 278.48 16.2%
Retail/Institutional 5.36 5.90 -9.1%
Total 328.95 284.38 15.7%
Pack
Bulk 0.43 0.59 -27.1%
Retail/Institutional 1.75 1.11 57.5%
Total Pack 2.18 1.70 28.0%
Reprocessed -2.18 -1.70 28.0%
Pack from Fruit 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.05 0.02 121.6%
Imports – Foreign 3.59 1.33 169.6%
Domestic Receipts 0.00 0.03 -100.0%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.03 0.00 NA
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.00 -100.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.64 0.00 NA
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 326.04 278.76 17.0%
Retail/Institutional 7.11 7.01 1.4%
Total 333.15 285.77 16.6%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 5.01 3.99 25.6%
Exports 0.25 0.43 -41.3%
Total (Bulk) 5.26 4.42 19.1%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.36 1.22 11.7%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.36 1.22 11.7%
Total Movement 6.62 5.63 17.5%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 320.78 274.34 16.9%
Retail/Institutional 5.75 5.79 -0.7%
Ending Inventory 326.54 280.13 16.6%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
20-Jul-19 21-Jul-18 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 237.21 185.02 28.2%
Retail/Institutional 5.92 7.20 -17.8%
Total 243.13 192.21 26.5%
Pack
Bulk 142.44 89.66 58.9%
Retail/Institutional 50.91 52.01 -2.1%
Total Pack 193.35 141.67 36.5%
Reprocessed -106.06 -100.57 5.5%
Pack from Fruit 87.29 41.10 112.4%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -1.13 0.86 31.4%
Imports – Foreign 246.07 273.53 -10.0%
Domestic Receipts 10.13 8.36 21.1%
Receipts of Florida Produ 0.07 0.52 -87.2%
from Non-Reporting Entit 3.56 1.17 205.1%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 3.18 0.61 419.5%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 535.45 459.16 16.6%
Retail/Institutional 56.82 59.20 -4.0%
Total 592.28 518.36 14.3%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 197.76 171.70 15.2%
Domestic 16.90 13.12 28.9%
Exports 214.67 184.82 16.2%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 51.07 53.41 -4.4%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 51.07 53.41 -4.4%
Total Movement 265.74 238.23 11.5%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 320.78 274.34 16.9%
Retail/Institutional 5.75 5.79 -0.7%
Ending Inventory 326.54 280.13 16.6%

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures closed higher in both markets on new forecasts for cold weather in Brazil. It might not get cold enough to hurt Coffee, but speculators are short and decided to cover part of these positions. The new harvest is starting to become available so Brazil should be able to keep up a strong export pace for at least the next few months. The Brazil harvest is moving along and producers are trying to store the crop due to the current low prices. Reports indicate that the yields are not real strong and that the quality of the crop is poor due to extreme weather seen early in the growing season. Reports from the recent freeze suggest little additional damage to crops, but some leaves were burned and some trees will be in shock for a while. Production potential for the crop next year could be affected. Vietnam is also reporting lower yields for the current crop as the weather was not good for flowering earlier in the year. There have been some hot and dry spells that have hurt yield and quality for these crops as well, but showers are reported in the Central Highlands now and ideas are that conditions and production potential have improved. Central America has Coffee on offer, but bid prices from buyers have been very low. The weak prices are pushing the banks into a holding mode and they are not offering much in the way of production loans to producers. That means less production for Central America as the trees are not being fed or cared for properly.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.365 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 99.98 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above temperatures. Showers are possible on Saturday. Vietnam will see scattered and mostly light showers and storms.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 99.00, 95.00, and 94.00 September. Support is at 99.00, 96.00, and 95.00 September, and resistance is at 102.00, 105.00 and 106.00 September. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1320 September. Support is at 1320, 1310, and 1280 September, and resistance is at 1380, 1400, and 1420 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed higher on forecasts for more cold weather in Brazil. Another round of cold temperatures is forecast for central south Sugar areas this week that could hurt more of the Sugarcane crop. The recent freeze may have hurt some of the cane. World supplies still appear ample for the demand potential. Reports from India indicate that the country still has a large surplus of White Sugar that probably must be exported. India is reporting below normal monsoon rains, but rains have been better lately. There are concerns that the Indian monsoon will not be strong this year and that Sugarcane production could be hurt. Processing of Sugarcane in Brazil is slower and the pace of the crush is behind last year. Mills are refining mostly for ethanol right now as has been the case all season. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil is good enough and India has improved to support some of the big production ideas. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather but a few showers this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1220, 1280, and 1290 October. Support is at 1180, 1150, and 1140 October, and resistance is at 1230, 1240, and 1260 October. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 328.00 and 337.00 October. Support is at 318.00, 312.00, and 311.00 October, and resistance is at 325.00, 328.00, and 331.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower in New York and higher in London. Some of the selling in New York was currency related as the US Dollar has held very strong. Demand news was mixed. The European Cocoa grind was lower for the quarter and the grind itself was at a two-year low. The Asian grind was sharply higher. The uneven weather in West Africa is still a feature. The weather in Ivory Coast has been dryer than normal for the last couple of weeks and there is some talk that production of the next main crop could be hurt. Some showers are returning to West Africa now to help relieve stress on trees. Rains were above average last week. Ideas are that the next crop will be good. The harvest will start in the Fall. Growing and harvesting conditions in Asia are also reported to be good. The harvest is ongoing amid showers, but good progress in the harvest is expected at this time. More and more Asian Cocoa has been staying at home and processed in Indonesia for export in the region. Demand in Asia has been growing and Indonesia has been eager to be the primary source of Cocoa. Arrivals in Ivory Coast are now 2.127 million tons, from 1.942 million last year.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.305 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2330 September. Support is at 2350, 2320, and 2280 September, with resistance at 2430, 2450, and 2470 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1810, 1780, and 1760 September, with resistance at 1860, 1870, and 1890 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322