About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jul 29
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUL 25, 2019
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 07/25/2019 07/18/2019 07/26/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 343 2,007 1,223
CORN 645,367 438,544 1,661,593 44,255,547 51,486,785
FLAXSEED 24 0 0 48 146
MIXED 0 0 0 0 24
OATS 0 0 0 299 1,198
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 9,126 60,913 48,462 1,840,129 4,847,235
SOYBEANS 1,031,477 560,856 768,769 40,311,922 52,477,266
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 335
WHEAT 390,730 447,288 390,126 3,798,662 3,051,478
Total 2,076,724 1,507,601 2,869,293 90,208,614 111,865,690
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Crop Progress
Date 28-Jul 21-Jul 2018 Avg
Cotton Squaring 86 78 87 87
Cotton Setting Bolls 45 33 48 48
Corn Silking 58 35 90 83
Corn Dough 13 5 35 23
Soybeans blooming 57 40 85 79
Soybeans Setting Pods 21 7 58 45
Sorghum Headed 33 27 52 50
Sorghum Coloring 21 16 25 25
Rice Headed 42 31 61 57
Peanuts Pegging 84 78 85 85
Oats Headed 97 94 100 100
Oats Harvested 21 12 36 35
Winter Wheat Harvested 75 69 84 86
Spring Wheat Headed 97 92 99 98
Barley Headed 96 90 97 98

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 1 10 28 46 15
Cotton Last Week 2 8 30 50 10
Cotton Last Year 11 19 27 34 9

Corn This Week 3 9 30 47 11
Corn Last Week 3 10 30 47 10
Corn Last Year 3 6 19 50 22

Soybeans This Week 3 10 33 45 9
Soybeans Last Week 3 9 34 46 8
Soybeans Last Year 2 6 22 53 17

Sorghum This Week 1 3 25 59 12
Sorghum Last Week 1 2 24 60 13
Sorghum Last Year 4 11 33 44 8

Rice This Week 1 6 25 48 20
Rice Last Week 1 6 28 46 19
Rice Last Year 1 7 23 55 14

Oats This Week 2 6 26 53 13
Oats Last Week 3 5 28 52 12
Oats Last Year 4 3 22 58 13

Peanuts This Week 1 4 25 61 9
Peanuts Last Week 1 3 25 62 9
Peanuts Last Year 0 2 23 61 14

Barley This Week 0 5 18 62 15
Barley Last Week 0 5 19 58 18
Barley Last Year 1 2 17 66 14

Spring Wheat This Week 1 5 21 62 11
Spring Wheat Last Week 0 4 20 63 13
Spring Wheat Last Year 1 3 18 64 14

Pastures and Ranges This Week 2 8 26 52 12
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 2 7 25 53 13
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 11 18 30 35 6

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher on hopes for improved demand for US Wheat. The Winter Wheat harvest is moving to completion now under mostly good conditions. USDA showed that the harvest is mostly done in the central and southern Great Plains but is just started in the north. The yield and quality reports for HRW have been very good. Spring Wheat has held better on uneven conditions in Canada and despite generally good growing conditions in the US. Rains in the Prairies have been mostly in northern sections and southern sections have been dry. It has been a very dry year overall and there are ideas that yield potential is being affected. US Spring Wheat conditions have been mostly good as the primary growing areas in Montana and North Dakota have had good rains. The weather overseas has not been that good. Europe had some record-setting heat last week that caused the government to tell producers to stop harvesting due to fires that were breaking out in production areas. Yield reports have been good given the stressful weather. Other parts of western Europe have had dry weather and hot conditions as well. Russia has also had some very hot and dry weather in Spring Wheat areas that have caused stress to crops. Winter Wheat areas near the Black Sea appear to be in relatively good condition, and the region was a strong seller to Egypt last week. World prices have been generally firming and have been providing some support to US prices. The market is watching conditions in Brazil, where much of the Winter Wheat crop froze during the recent bout of sub freezing temperatures. Cold temperatures are possible again this week. Ideas are that Brazil will become a bigger importer this year and will buy primarily from Argentina but also could buy some significant amounts from the US.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered and light showers this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 500, 493, and 487 September, with resistance at 507, 510, and 514 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 430, 427, and 425 September, with resistance at 443, 450, and 452 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 539 and 552 September. Support is at 525, 520, and 515 September, and resistance is at 538, 543, and 547 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher yesterday and made new highs for the move. Chart trends remain up. Crops in the south are being drained from the flood or will start soon and that means that the harvest is just getting started. Sources in Texas expect a good crop, but probably not top yields. Below trend yields are expected in much of the Rice Belt. Crops look good but no one expects super yields due to the very uneven growing season including a lot of rain at planting time and then uneven conditions due to cooler temperatures and varying rains seen until recently. Arkansas could be the worst state this year as many producers could not get everything planted a had of enroll in the Prevent Plant program. Demand until now has generally been firm in export markets and USD indicated in its monthly supply and demand updates that domestic demand has been much stronger than expected.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1243 and 1250 September. Support is at 1220, 1207, and 1203 September, with resistance at 1236, 1248, and 1260 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher on forecasts for little rain in the Midwest over the next couple of weeks. It will not be real hot, but the crops need a good drink and are not likely to get one in most major growing areas. USDA showed a slight increase in its condition ratings and also showed that the crop development remains far behind the average pace. The Midwest and much of the Great Plains will enjoy below normal temperatures although it will remain rather dry. The cool temperatures will not promote rapid growth, but there will be growth and the condition should stay generally good. Meanwhile, Corn is a market that needs some demand and the weekly export sales reports have not been strong. The weekly export inspections report showed improved off take, but the US still needs more sales. Overseas buyers can get cheaper Corn in Argentina. Demand for ethanol has also started to go down on weaker processing margins. This has been a big topic in the press in recent days. What happens to Corn prices this year will depend in large part on how the US crop develops. It is very late so even normal freeze dates could cause some big production losses. A good crop is possible, but the producer will need a late freeze to get the crop home.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 412, 405, and 400 September, and resistance is at 421, 424, and 427 September. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 255 and 254 September. Support is at 255, 252, and 249 September, and resistance is at 265, 268, and 270 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher on hoped of new Chinese demand. The market is waiting for news this week from Shanghai as the US and China will start to try to resolve trade and economic differences once again. USDA showed slow crop progress and stable crop condition ratings in its report last night. The entire Midwest saw some cooler and drier weather last week that should have helped reduce stress on the plants. It should be mostly dry and cooler again this week. Soybeans were planted very late this year and not all crops are showing good progress. The plants remain small and some do not seem to be developing much at all. Demand news was positive as USDA showed very strong export inspections that included shipments to China. There was some talk in the Chinese press that China was getting active in buying some US Soybeans to help support futures at the end of last week but these reports were not confirmed and bases levels were reported to be steady. The two sides are talking again and China has removed tariffs on up to 3.0 million tons of Soybeans imports from the US by private industry there in a show of good will towards the talks. The problem is that the issues to be resolved are big and very complicated and will require a lot of time and work before success can be claimed by both sides.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 865 and 836 August. Support is at 881, 876, and 872 August, and resistance is at 896, 906, and 918 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 303.00, 299.00, and 292.00 August. Support is at 300.00, 298.00, and 295.00 August, and resistance is at 308.00, 310.00, and 313.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2820, 2800, and 2780 August, with resistance at 2870, 2930, and 2960 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower yesterday in range trading. There was also some buying seen on hopes for progress in trade negotiations with China and the US this week. The weather forecasts call for moderate temperatures this week. Most areas are seeing better weather now, but the weather has been dry and sometimes hot in many growing areas until recently. Growing conditions are improving after rains in the last couple of weeks, but there are areas that are still reported to be too dry. Traders are expecting good but not great crops right now. Palm Oil was closed for a holidays. The market still expects limited upside potential, but the charts show that the market has broken out to the upside and that at least a short-term rally is happening now. There are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand. Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 446.00, 442.00, and 437.00 November, with resistance at 453.00, 457.00, and 459.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2070 October. Support is at 2030, 2010, and 1980 October, with resistance at 2070, 2090, and 2120 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July +51 Sep +150 Sep +40 Sep +55 Aug +12 Aug N/A
August +42 Sep +55 Sep +51 Aug
September +45 Sep +68 Sep +34 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
July
August
September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 29
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, July 29 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Monday, July 29.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 428.90 -20.00 Nov 2019 up 1.60
Track Thunder Bay 461.40 12.00 Nov 2019 dn 1.10
Track Vancouver 469.40 20.00 Nov 2019 dn 1.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 30
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 119,520 lots, or 4.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 3,371 3,396 3,367 3,376 3,383 3,379 -4 102,890 146,346
Nov-19 3,441 3,446 3,429 3,433 3,444 3,443 -1 92 438
Jan-20 3,394 3,404 3,385 3,390 3,398 3,394 -4 15,478 73,158
Mar-20 – – – 3,463 3,467 3,463 -4 0 30
May-20 3,513 3,531 3,513 3,519 3,516 3,522 6 1,058 27,208
Jul-20 3,520 3,520 3,520 3,520 3,512 3,520 8 2 10
Corn
Turnover: 433,726 lots, or 8.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 1,929 1,933 1,923 1,924 1,930 1,928 -2 247,438 725,154
Nov-19 1,953 1,957 1,947 1,950 1,953 1,953 0 23,106 369,854
Jan-20 1,985 1,986 1,975 1,975 1,981 1,980 -1 149,764 718,782
Mar-20 2,001 2,001 1,995 1,995 1,997 1,998 1 236 2,178
May-20 2,043 2,048 2,036 2,036 2,042 2,041 -1 12,732 134,464
Jul-20 2,056 2,063 2,055 2,058 2,053 2,060 7 450 712
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,506,190 lots, or 42.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 2,799 2,800 2,799 2,800 2,788 2,799 11 4 708
Sep-19 2,776 2,806 2,772 2,789 2,779 2,787 8 1,099,566 1,192,940
Nov-19 2,795 2,814 2,788 2,804 2,795 2,795 0 64,870 230,246
Dec-19 2,795 2,818 2,795 2,806 2,799 2,809 10 40 1,112
Jan-20 2,801 2,825 2,801 2,819 2,811 2,812 1 304,256 826,142
Mar-20 2,758 2,758 2,754 2,756 2,749 2,756 7 6 726
May-20 2,721 2,739 2,720 2,731 2,725 2,728 3 37,362 251,424
Jul-20 2,725 2,737 2,725 2,735 2,724 2,732 8 86 366
Palm Oil
Turnover: 326,254 lots, or 14.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 4,270 4,270 4,270 0 0 0
Sep-19 4,366 4,374 4,354 4,360 4,360 4,360 0 215,974 397,438
Oct-19 4,442 4,442 4,442 4,442 4,500 4,442 -58 2 16
Nov-19 – – – 4,392 4,448 4,392 -56 0 14
Dec-19 4,592 4,592 4,592 4,592 4,620 4,592 -28 2 10
Jan-20 4,544 4,568 4,530 4,544 4,534 4,544 10 107,676 355,222
Feb-20 4,688 4,688 4,548 4,610 4,596 4,644 48 10 8
Mar-20 – – – 4,748 4,700 4,748 48 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,714 4,666 4,714 48 0 2
May-20 4,730 4,754 4,722 4,730 4,718 4,728 10 2,590 43,732
Jun-20 – – – 4,692 4,692 4,692 0 0 2
Jul-20 – – – 4,710 4,692 4,710 18 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 487,362 lots, or 27.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 5,398 5,398 5,398 0 0 32
Sep-19 5,580 5,600 5,556 5,572 5,570 5,576 6 287,638 523,738
Nov-19 5,650 5,650 5,650 5,650 5,600 5,650 50 2 4
Dec-19 5,706 5,706 5,706 5,706 5,710 5,706 -4 6 30
Jan-20 5,750 5,768 5,718 5,730 5,726 5,740 14 193,242 498,572
Mar-20 5,756 5,798 5,756 5,760 5,770 5,770 0 6 10
May-20 5,806 5,836 5,792 5,802 5,798 5,808 10 6,468 78,338
Jul-20 – – – 5,700 5,700 5,700 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322