About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher for the week and weekly charts show that futures could be forming a low at this time. The weather has been considered good for Cotton production in the US. It has been warm but there have been showers to support good development. Crop development remains on about an average pace and bolls should start to form soon. Demand remains a big problem for Cotton. World demand has been less this year as China has not been buying. World prices have been lower as a result. The situation is bad enough that Indian spinners have been cutting back on operations. USDA noted less demand for US Cotton as well, primarily due to the trade disputes the US government has started against China and other major world importers. US production prospects have improved after a rough start to the season. The main problem area continues to be the Texas Panhandle. It has generally been very hot and dry in much of the Panhandle but conditions have improved and crop ratings have gone higher. Overall US production prospects remain strong as most other areas are in good condition and USDA has kept condition ratings generally strong. The main problem will be finding buyers for the Cotton and that could mean that lower prices are needed.
Overnight News: The Delta should see mostly dry conditions except for some showers and storms on Monday and the Southeast could get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be mostly near to below normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather, but a few showers could appear on Monday. Temperatures will trend to above normal. The USDA average price is now 58.74 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 30,522 bales, from 30,522 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 6650 and 6920 December. Support is at 6360, 6290, and 6260 December, with resistance of 6470, 6530, and 6550 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 23, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 256,156
: Positions :
: 34,659 84,011 54,342 75,742 82,193 75,816 20,964 240,559 241,510: 15,597 14,646
: Changes from: July 16, 2019 (Change in open interest: 10,071) :
: 1,505 2,750 4,182 2,474 1,903 1,543 1,813 9,703 10,648: 368 -576
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.5 32.8 21.2 29.6 32.1 29.6 8.2 93.9 94.3: 6.1 5.7
: Total Traders: 304 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 72 107 87 57 52 47 22 229 221:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was slightly lower last week in narrow range trading. The weather in Florida remained tranquil as the state has seen frequent showers and storms that have greatly reduced irrigation needs. There are no tropical systems likely to hit the state this week. Futures appear poised to move back to or below 90.00 seen earlier in the year. Speculators have been buying in anticipation of the hurricane season, but there are no storms on the horizon this early in the season. The state has seen only an increase in showers and storms that have been beneficial for crops. Trends are sideways to down on the daily charts and weekly charts as the market looks at a big orange crop and weak demand for FCOJ. USDA kept its production estimates above 70 million boxes in the production reports. Inventories in Florida are still 15% above a year ago. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are as big as baseballs. Crop conditions are called good. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers each day. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers today, then drier weather and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 101.00, 99.00, and 95.00 September, with resistance at 104.00, 106.00, and 107.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 23, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 23,734 :
: Positions :
: 13,552 9,270 1,283 0 70 550 7,515 120 1,005 1,132 3,774 :
: Changes from: July 16, 2019 :
: 142 -112 -173 0 0 95 -97 0 -180 64 -16 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 57.1 39.1 5.4 0.0 0.3 2.3 31.7 0.5 4.2 4.8 15.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 77 :
: 24 11 6 0 . . 21 . 14 9 13 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures closed lower in both markets on reports that the Coffee crop in Brazil mostly escaped damage from the freeze and as the export pace from Brazil remained above 2.8 million bags per month. It seems that the exporters are using old Coffee along with some new Coffee to keep the pace as strong as it is. The new harvest is starting to become available so the country should be able to keep up a strong export pace for at least the next few months. The Brazil harvest is moving along and producers are trying to store the crop due to the current low prices. Reports indicate that the yields are not real strong and that the quality of the crop is poor due to extreme weather seen early in the growing season. Reports from the recent freeze suggest little additional damage to crops, but some leaves were burned and some trees will be in shock for a while. Production potential for the crop next year could be affected. Vietnam is also reporting lower yields for the current crop as the weather was not good for flowering earlier in the year. There have been some hot and dry spells that have hurt yield and quality for these crops as well, but showers are reported in the Central Highlands now and ideas are that conditions and production potential have improved. Central America has Coffee on offer, but bid prices from buyers have been very low. The weak prices are pushing the banks into a holding mode and they are not offering much in the way of production loans to producers. That means less production for Central America as the trees are not being fed or cared for properly. Roasters were scale down buyers on the extended down move and now have more than ample supplies in-house or on the way.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.368 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 99.08 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers and storms.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 99.00, 95.00, and 94.00 September. Support is at 99.00, 96.00, and 95.00 September, and resistance is at 102.00, 105.00 and 106.00 September. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1320 September. Support is at 1310, 1280, and 1250 September, and resistance is at 1380, 1400, and 1420 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 23, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 331,032
: Positions :
: 32,225 55,893 81,845 125,865 155,945 72,177 26,448 312,112 320,131: 18,920 10,901
: Changes from: July 16, 2019 (Change in open interest: 5,143) :
: -156 2,647 952 2,700 -825 1,312 2,342 4,808 5,117: 335 26
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.7 16.9 24.7 38.0 47.1 21.8 8.0 94.3 96.7: 5.7 3.3
: Total Traders: 475 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 133 126 152 135 120 48 25 409 351:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/23/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
141,892 80,410 63,357 20,902 10,196 2,173
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 56.7% 44.7% 14.7% 7.2% 1.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
158 56 46 17 8 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
4,759 34,814 9,781 3,386 1,473 15,556
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.4% 24.5% 6.9% 2.4% 1.0% 11.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
11 34 11 13 8 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,924 4,541
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.5% 3.2%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed higher, but trends remain down in New York on the weekly charts. London was higher inside the recent trading range. Support came from above who reported a slower crush of Sugarcane and still strong processing of the cane into Ethanol. The recent freeze may have hurt some of the cane. World supplies still appear ample for the demand potential. Reports from India indicate that the country still has a large surplus of White Sugar that probably must be exported. India is reporting below normal monsoon rains, but rains have been better lately. There are concerns that the Indian monsoon will not be strong this year and that Sugarcane production could be hurt. Processing of Sugarcane in Brazil is slower and the pace of the crush is behind last year. Mills are refining mostly for ethanol right now as has been the case all season. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil is good enough and India has improved to support some of the big production ideas. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1220, 1280, and 1290 October. Support is at 1180, 1150, and 1140 October, and resistance is at 1230, 1240, and 1260 October. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 328.00 and 337.00 October. Support is at 318.00, 312.00, and 311.00 October, and resistance is at 323.00, 325.00, and 328.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 23, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,084,641
: Positions :
: 109,611 277,513 220,198 382,194 435,375 287,813 74,134 999,815 1,007,220: 84,826 77,421
: Changes from: July 16, 2019 (Change in open interest: 75,294) :
: 598 48,489 31,211 38,981 -34,416 3,376 28,176 74,166 73,459: 1,128 1,835
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.1 25.6 20.3 35.2 40.1 26.5 6.8 92.2 92.9: 7.8 7.1
: Total Traders: 270 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 53 79 90 82 77 34 17 224 217:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/23/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
105,422 57,967 31,483 9,807 5,965 2,073
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 55.0% 29.9% 9.3% 5.7% 2.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
152 54 40 12 6 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
15,206 50,739 6,935 3,911 234 4,477
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
14.4% 48.1% 6.6% 3.7% 0.2% 4.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
19 32 16 15 5 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,047 3,516
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.8% 3.3%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower, with New York in down trends but with London looking like higher prices are possible on the weekly charts. Some of the selling in New York was currency related as the US Dollar has held very strong. Demand news was mixed. The European Cocoa grind was lower for the quarter and the grind itself was at a two-year low. The Asian grind was sharply higher. The uneven weather in West Africa is still a feature. The weather in Ivory Coast has been dryer than normal for the last couple of weeks and there is some talk that production of the next main crop could be hurt. Some showers are returning to West Africa now to help relieve stress on trees. Ideas are that the next crop will be good. The harvest will start in the Fall. Growing and harvesting conditions in Asia are also reported to be good. The harvest is ongoing amid showers, but good progress in the harvest is expected at this time. More and more Asian Cocoa has been staying at home and processed in Indonesia for export in the region. Demand in Asia has been growing and Indonesia has been eager to be the primary source of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.331 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2380, 2370, and 2330 September. Support is at 2390, 2380, and 2350 September, with resistance at 2450, 2470, and 2500 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1810, 1780, and 1760 September, with resistance at 1860, 1870, and 1890 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 23, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 323,019
: Positions :
: 54,073 30,982 68,762 123,348 191,796 61,650 21,004 307,833 312,545: 15,186 10,474
: Changes from: July 16, 2019 (Change in open interest: 5,301) :
: 3,122 -2,189 2,436 1,423 5,269 -1,130 122 5,851 5,638: -550 -337
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.7 9.6 21.3 38.2 59.4 19.1 6.5 95.3 96.8: 4.7 3.2
: Total Traders: 225 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 79 52 86 41 42 34 15 202 157:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/23/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
362,999 199,290 242,588 15,978 33,692 27,693
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 54.9% 66.8% 4.4% 9.3% 7.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
151 49 46 11 8 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
57,925 4,324 27,780 4,903 226 25,095
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
16.0% 1.2% 7.7% 1.4% 0.1% 6.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
33 11 13 14 10 22
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,335 1,601
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.2% 0.4%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322