About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed to higher yesterday on reports of reduced production in Russia and forecasts for some very hot weather to return to Europe. A much stronger than expected export sales report also aided buyers early. Selling was seen later to push prices to either side of unchanged at the close. World prices have been firming but US prices remain higher. That has caused many to look for only routine demand now, but the export demand has been stronger than expected for several weeks now. Yield reports so far this year from the Great Plains indicate that overall production will be high. Quality is reported to be good in HRW as protein levels have generally been 11.5 to 12% in the Kansas reports. Spring Wheat in the US is generally in good condition as it has had enough rain. The North Dakota Spring Wheat tour is this week and participants found good crops on the second day yesterday. Good crops had been expected as the USDA crop condition ratings have been strong. Canada seems to be enjoying better weather as well, but many areas in the Prairies remain too dry..
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see showers on Wednesday, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers off and on in north and east areas, otherwise dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 469, 460, and 436 September. Support is at 493, 487, and 483 September, with resistance at 510, 514, and 517 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 435, 427, and 425 September, with resistance at 450, 452, and 458 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 502 and 479 September. Support is at 520, 515, and 512 September, and resistance is at 526, 532, and 538 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher and trends are up on the daily charts. The market is likely to find increased selling interest from producers on any further rally attempt as producers have sold very little and are eager to get some sales on the books. Crops in the south will start to be drained from the flood soon and that means that the harvest is just around the corner. Sources in Texas expect a good crop, but probably not top yields. That seems to be the refrain in much of the Rice Belt because of uncertain weather at the start of the growing season. Conversations with producers near each other in Arkansas reflect the uneven conditions as one got planted early and is optimistic about his production potential while the other could not get fully planted and will have about half a crop to sell once the harvest is complete.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1220, 1228, and 1243 September. Support is at 1207, 1203, and 1196 September, with resistance at 1224, 1236, and 1248 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn traded higher early in the day but failed to hold and closed on a weak note for the second day. The export sales report was bad and this news has created ideas of weak demand. The ethanol data for the week also showed poor demand for that sector. Trends in the market are still down, but many are still interested in being long the market due to reduced supply. The Corn crop in general remains very late and Corn genetics mean that the crop can’t do much to catch up. The Midwest and much of the Great Plains will enjoy below normal temperatures although it will remain rather dry. The cool temperatures will not promote rapid growth, but there will be growth and the condition should stay generally good. Overseas buyers can get cheaper Corn in Argentina and Brazil is about done with its big Winter Corn harvest. What happens to Corn prices this year will depend in large part on how the US crop develops as the crop remains very late.
Overnight News: Ethanol production was 1.039 miilion barrels a day last week, from 1.066 million the previous week and 1.044 million the previous year. Ethanol stocks are now 23.7 million barrels, from 23.4 million the previous week and 21.7 million the previous year. Corn use for Ethanol was 105.9 million bushels, versus 108.6 million the previous week and 110.2 million the previous year. Estimated Corn year to date use is 4.856 billion bushels.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 400 and 394 September. Support is at 418, 413, and 408 September, and resistance is at 424, 427, and 430 September. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 262, 255, and 254 September. Support is at 261, 258, and 255 September, and resistance is at 268, 270, and 272 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower in response to weak export sales that showed cancellations from China. News that China has permitted its private industries to buy US Soybeans with no tariffs provide some support but there have been no confirmed sales so far. There was market talk that one crusher in China bought a boatload of US Soybeans yesterday and that several more cargoes could be sold in the short-term. Most industry could wait for the US harvest to buy as prices might be less. Some selling was seen on improved weather and still uneven growing conditions. Soybean Oil was mixed to higher. It is now cooler and drier now in the Midwest and it is turning cooler in the Delta and Southeast. Soybeans were planted very late this year and not all crops are showing good progress. The plants remain small and stressed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 865 and 836 August. Support is at 881, 876, and 872 August, and resistance is at 896, 906, and 918 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 303.00, 299.00, and 292.00 August. Support is at 300.00, 298.00, and 295.00 August, and resistance is at 308.00, 310.00, and 313.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2800, 2780, and 2750 August, with resistance at 2860, 2870, and 2930 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower yesterday on Chicago price action and despite a weaker Canadian Dollar. Most areas are seeing better weather now, but the weather has been dry and sometimes hot in many growing areas until recently. Growing conditions are improving after rains in the last couple of weeks, but there are areas that are still reported to be too dry. Traders are expecting good but not great crops right now. Palm Oil was a little higher on follow through buying as Soybean Oil traded a little higher. The market still expects limited upside potential, but the charts show that the market has broken out to the upside and that at least a short-term rally is happening now. There are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand. Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.
Overnight News: SGS said Malaysian Palm Oil exports are 1.150 million tons so far this month, from 1.174 million last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 458.00 and 468.00 November. Support is at 446.00, 442.00, and 437.00 November, with resistance at 453.00, 457.00, and 459.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2070 October. Support is at 2030, 2010, and 1980 October, with resistance at 2070, 2090, and 2120 October.

DJ Canadian Oilseed Processors Association Monthly Crush – Jul 25
WINNIPEG–Crushing statistics of major oilseeds in Canada
for the month of June 2019, reported by Statistics Canada are as
follows:
Figures are in metric tons.
Year Ago 2018/19 2017/18
Canola Jun 2019 Jun 2018 To Date To Date
Seed crushed 733,698 742,216 8,440,874 8,430,853
Oil produced 318,648 334,184 3,673,969 3,763,320
Meal produced 411,993 415,167 4,725,463 4,264,533
Soybeans
Seed crushed 133,171 171,361 1,896,000 1,792,119
Oil produced 25,923 31,770 360,759 328,216
Meal produced 102,225 133,056 1,460,692 1,394,456
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July +54 Sep +150 Sep +45 Sep +69 Aug +12 Aug N/A
August +46 Sep +50 Sep +53 Aug
September +46 Sep +70 Sep +35 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
July
August
September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 25
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 430.20 -20.00 Nov 2019 up 2.70
Track Thunder Bay 460.90 12.00 Nov 2019 dn 1.30
Track Vancouver 468.90 20.00 Nov 2019 dn 1.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 26
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 512.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 515.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 532.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 560.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Aug 517.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 520.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 537.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 565.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 495.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 357.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 2,000 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 148 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1170)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 26
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 159,410 lots, or 5.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 3,397 3,399 3,364 3,378 3,403 3,375 -28 140,094 147,162
Nov-19 3,445 3,445 3,417 3,434 3,460 3,434 -26 38 380
Jan-20 3,414 3,414 3,389 3,393 3,413 3,396 -17 18,370 67,594
Mar-20 – – – 3,467 3,484 3,467 -17 0 30
May-20 3,523 3,525 3,508 3,513 3,523 3,512 -11 908 26,896
Jul-20 – – – 3,512 3,512 3,512 0 0 10
Corn
Turnover: 346,010 lots, or 6.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 1,926 1,927 1,919 1,924 1,927 1,922 -5 216,120 721,164
Nov-19 1,950 1,951 1,944 1,947 1,950 1,947 -3 27,798 364,674
Jan-20 1,978 1,978 1,972 1,977 1,977 1,975 -2 94,806 687,080
Mar-20 1,993 1,995 1,990 1,994 1,994 1,990 -4 220 2,092
May-20 2,035 2,039 2,035 2,036 2,038 2,036 -2 6,824 135,824
Jul-20 2,060 2,060 2,048 2,053 2,053 2,053 0 242 466
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,027,488 lots, or 56.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 2,820 2,828 2,734 2,746 2,808 2,788 -20 20 826
Sep-19 2,810 2,812 2,764 2,784 2,805 2,782 -23 1,606,472 1,272,298
Nov-19 2,819 2,825 2,789 2,807 2,825 2,806 -19 38,788 231,000
Dec-19 2,829 2,829 2,800 2,809 2,831 2,812 -19 36 1,112
Jan-20 2,838 2,838 2,805 2,817 2,837 2,818 -19 336,160 793,166
Mar-20 2,773 2,777 2,754 2,764 2,762 2,767 5 34 722
May-20 2,742 2,742 2,719 2,728 2,739 2,726 -13 45,912 248,160
Jul-20 2,727 2,731 2,723 2,728 2,738 2,725 -13 66 284
Palm Oil
Turnover: 446,444 lots, or 19.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 4,270 4,270 4,270 0 0 0
Sep-19 4,318 4,348 4,314 4,332 4,304 4,326 22 315,134 467,456
Oct-19 4,370 4,422 4,370 4,422 4,398 4,402 4 6 14
Nov-19 – – – 4,352 4,350 4,352 2 0 14
Dec-19 – – – 4,512 4,512 4,512 0 0 10
Jan-20 4,520 4,544 4,492 4,502 4,496 4,510 14 123,202 344,812
Feb-20 – – – 4,572 4,572 4,572 0 0 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,700 4,700 4,700 0 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,642 4,628 4,642 14 0 2
May-20 4,722 4,736 4,692 4,700 4,696 4,700 4 8,102 39,918
Jun-20 – – – 4,692 4,692 4,692 0 0 2
Jul-20 – – – 4,692 4,692 4,692 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 535,434 lots, or 29.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 5,398 5,398 5,398 0 0 32
Sep-19 5,538 5,554 5,506 5,530 5,524 5,524 0 328,852 578,730
Nov-19 – – – 5,566 5,566 5,566 0 0 6
Dec-19 5,662 5,662 5,658 5,658 5,630 5,660 30 12 28
Jan-20 5,690 5,716 5,664 5,694 5,678 5,684 6 194,046 455,568
Mar-20 – – – 5,708 5,708 5,708 0 0 12
May-20 5,784 5,796 5,750 5,770 5,766 5,766 0 12,524 69,052
Jul-20 – – – 5,700 5,700 5,700 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322