About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for July USDA Cattle-on-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed July 1 101.8 100.9- 103.2
Placed in June 97.7 93.2- 105.7
Marketed in June 96.9 95.8- 98.3
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
July 1 in June in June
Allegiant Commodity Group 101.6 95.8 96.8
Allendale Inc. 100.9 93.2 98.3
HedgersEdge 102.5 102.4 97.0
Linn Group 101.8 97.6 97.1
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 101.3 95.1 97.2
NFC Markets 103.2 105.7 96.2
Texas A&M Extenstion 102.1 98.1 95.8
U.S. Commodities 101.7 97.2 97.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on follow through speculative selling tied to continuing harvest progress and lack of export demand for US Wheat, The export sales report was in line with expectations, but it did not represent real good demand. US prices are going lower to find some demand for US Wheat. The harvest pace for Winter Wheat is active at this time and the condition ratings for Spring Wheat improved. Private sources in eastern Europe and Russia are reporting lower harvested yields again, so world prices could catch up to those from the US. World buyers need to show up and buy. Egypt did buy ne cargo from Russia yesterday. There have not been many tender announcements lately and the market needs some business. Most buyers will continue to look to Europe and Russia to buy as those prices are still lower. The US Winter Wheat harvest has produced strong yields, so the overall price structure for US Wheat can stay weak until the demand for US Wheat starts to improve.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see showers and storms off tomorrow, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers off and on through this weekend. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 472, 469, and 436 September. Support is at 491, 488, and 481 September, with resistance at 502, 510, and 514 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 431, 425, and 418 September, with resistance at 443, 450, and 452 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 522 September. Support is at 524, 521, and 515 September, and resistance is at 532, 538, and 543 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher after another day of slow trading. Futures have clawed back into the recent trading range, and bullish traders will try to push for new highs above 1196 September to turn the trends back up again for the short-term. The export sales report was terrible, and the tropical system has now come and gone. Damage from the tropical storms appears minimal. The harvest will be underway in Texas near the end of this month, but other areas will begin later as crops got planted later than normal due to the extreme rains seen at planting time. There are ideas of less production, but how much less is unknown as USDA has not given any indication of prevent plant acreage yet. The Indian monsoon showed above normal rains for central and western parts of the country, but Rice areas in the south of the country continued to get below normal rains. Indian Rice production might be stressed now and production might be less this year due to the weaker monsoon rains.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and storms in all areas today and tomorrow, than drier weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1169, 1153, and 1108 September. Support is at 1182, 1172, and 1166 September, with resistance at 1196, 1202, and 1212 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower on bad weekly export sales and forecasts for improving US weather. It is still very hot in most of the Midwest, but there have been showers around. Western Illinois and Missouri got some showers and storms on Wednesday and the Chicago area saw some big rains yesterday morning. Most areas south and east of Chicago saw at least some light precipitation. All areas could see cooler temperatures next week. Longer range forecasts call for roughly normal conditions for the next 30 and 90 days. There is still a good chance for Corn to trade above $5.00 per bushel given the stressful weather, but to trade much above that level will require improved demand of for crop conditions to get worse. The crop is very late this year as much of the Corn was planted one to two months behind normal dates. It is mostly very short and at least some of it might not be mature before normal first freeze dates. The crop was planted into mostly very wet soils and the soils have compacted due to the rain and the equipment used to plant and fertilize the crop. The root structure is not as strong as it might normally be and there have been reports of stress from leaves rolling in parts of Illinois and Indiana. Reproduction will start soon, so rain and cooler temperatures will be welcomed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 420, 400, and 394 September. Support is at 421, 413, and 405 September, and resistance is at 432, 441, and 445 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 265 and 254 September. Support is at 272, 270, and 268 September, and resistance is at 278, 282, and 285 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed lower on ideas of improving Midwest weather and on a bad weekly export sales report. Western Illinois and Missouri got some showers and storms on Wednesday and the Chicago area saw some big rains yesterday morning. Most areas south and east of Chicago saw at least some light precipitation. All areas could see cooler temperatures next week and the 30 and 90 day outlooks call for roughly normal conditions. Soybeans were mostly planted very late and are very small. Hot and dry weather now will inhibit growth potential as the crops are not all that well established. It is now a weather market and the forecasts for this month and into August will be key for longer term price direction. USDA showed that South America will have plenty of Soybeans to offer and this fact will inhibit the upside potential for prices of Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 883, 865, and 836 August. Support is at 872, 865, and 863 August, and resistance is at 886, 900, and 918 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 304.00, 300.00, and 295.00 August, and resistance is at 309.00, 311.00, and 316.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2720 August. Support is at 2730, 2710, and 2690 August, with resistance at 2800, 2830, and 2850 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher on some speculative buying and some concerns about yield loss due to the uneven growing environment for crops in Canada this year. Most areas are seeing better weather now, but the weather has been dry and sometimes hot in many growing areas until recently. Growing conditions are improving after rains in the last couple of weeks, but there are areas that are still reported to be too dry. The trading volumes were light yesterday with not much speculative activity seen. Palm Oil was a little lower in consolidation trading and in sympathy with the outside markets. There are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand. Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 442.00, 437.00, and 434.00 November, with resistance at 448.00, 452.00, and 453.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 1940, 1910, and 1880 October, with resistance at 1990, 2010, and 2030 October.

DJ Indonesia’s Palm-Based Biodiesel Consumption, Exports to Jump This Year: USDA — Market Talk
0311 GMT – Indonesia’s palm-based biodiesel consumption is set for another large year-over-year increase in 2019 largely due to further expansion of B20 (bio diesel 20%) to the Non-PSO transport sector, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture in a note. USDA expects biodiesel consumption to increase to 6.2 billion liters in 2019 up from an estimated 3.95 billion liters in 2018. Furthermore, it adds that exports are forecast to remain elevated near 1.8 billion liters, up from 1.77 billion liters in 2018, based on continued demand from the EU and China.(lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Scattered showers possible late in the week, especially south and east of Chicago, then turning drier again this weekend. Temperatures should be above normal through Saturday, then below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July +54 Sep +162 Sep +45 Sep +53 Aug +12 Aug N/A
August +45 Sep +50 Sep +53 Aug
September +48 Sep +70 Sep +35 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
July
August
September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 18
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 434.10 dn 1.20
Basis: Thunder Bay 457.40 up 1.30
Basis: Vancouver 465.40 up 1.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 492.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 492.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 497.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 515.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
July 497.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 497.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 502.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 520.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 480.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 335.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1,900 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 132 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1100)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 84,996 lots, or 2.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 3,370 3,395 3,368 3,384 3,379 3,382 3 75,988 157,092
Nov-19 3,445 3,452 3,435 3,435 3,448 3,444 -4 14 354
Jan-20 3,406 3,415 3,400 3,406 3,406 3,406 0 8,358 55,486
Mar-20 – – – 3,413 3,413 3,413 0 0 30
May-20 3,514 3,522 3,508 3,517 3,517 3,515 -2 636 26,764
Jul-20 – – – 3,485 3,485 3,485 0 0 10
Corn
Turnover: 914,874 lots, or 17.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 1,932 1,940 1,920 1,920 1,930 1,930 0 552,820 801,062
Nov-19 1,955 1,963 1,944 1,944 1,955 1,956 1 37,722 350,852
Jan-20 1,988 1,995 1,976 1,977 1,987 1,985 -2 292,102 646,660
Mar-20 2,006 2,011 1,997 1,998 2,006 2,002 -4 454 2,232
May-20 2,050 2,055 2,039 2,040 2,048 2,048 0 31,182 120,390
Jul-20 2,067 2,072 2,064 2,064 2,077 2,067 -10 594 460
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,035,908 lots, or 57.70 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 2,886 2,906 2,844 2,867 2,876 2,881 5 60 1,006
Sep-19 2,827 2,847 2,809 2,840 2,844 2,830 -14 1,578,836 1,450,356
Nov-19 2,840 2,865 2,832 2,859 2,862 2,850 -12 92,102 215,078
Dec-19 2,838 2,873 2,833 2,865 2,856 2,854 -2 222 1,128
Jan-20 2,856 2,873 2,843 2,866 2,869 2,858 -11 317,828 751,412
Mar-20 2,801 2,801 2,791 2,791 2,804 2,797 -7 6 718
May-20 2,735 2,744 2,723 2,738 2,742 2,733 -9 46,784 239,702
Jul-20 2,726 2,744 2,723 2,743 2,737 2,737 0 70 154
Palm Oil
Turnover: 257,092 lots, or 10.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 4,288 4,288 4,288 0 0 0
Sep-19 4,194 4,202 4,182 4,190 4,196 4,188 -8 194,854 580,862
Oct-19 – – – 4,334 4,340 4,334 -6 0 16
Nov-19 4,288 4,288 4,288 4,288 4,344 4,288 -56 2 14
Dec-19 – – – 4,478 4,478 4,478 0 0 10
Jan-20 4,412 4,418 4,396 4,396 4,418 4,402 -16 58,684 269,508
Feb-20 – – – 4,472 4,472 4,472 0 0 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,598 4,598 4,598 0 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,612 4,628 4,612 -16 0 2
May-20 4,630 4,640 4,620 4,624 4,640 4,628 -12 3,552 38,060
Jun-20 – – – 4,692 4,692 4,692 0 0 2
Jul-20 – – – 4,692 4,692 4,692 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 266,214 lots, or 14.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 5,406 5,406 5,406 0 0 32
Sep-19 5,420 5,428 5,394 5,402 5,412 5,406 -6 188,716 659,614
Nov-19 – – – 5,492 5,492 5,492 0 0 6
Dec-19 – – – 5,524 5,530 5,524 -6 0 28
Jan-20 5,570 5,580 5,550 5,562 5,570 5,562 -8 72,848 350,168
Mar-20 – – – 5,610 5,610 5,610 0 0 12
May-20 5,638 5,712 5,638 5,656 5,670 5,660 -10 4,650 51,550
Jul-20 – – – 5,700 5,700 5,700 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322