About The Author

Bill Moore

William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337

SEPT CORN

 

 

It’s been a topsy-turvy trading affair since the USDA 7-11-19  Supply & Demand Report came out – a bearish report indeed! However, the trade wasn’t really buying the #’s and after spiking lower, the mkt rallied sharply – extending over 30 cents the next two days! But then a cooler, wetter weather forecast forced the mkt give back all those gains!

FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  1. EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 676,000 (500-800) & Thur Inspections were 332,000 (250-500)
  2. CROP RATINGS – improved with good/excellent going from 57 to 58% – silking was 17% (42)
  3. YIELD & ACRES UNCERTAINITY – getting a handle on the number of “prevent acres” & potential yields is difficult now – the August Crop Report on 8-12-19 should provide some clarity
  4. US/CHINA TRADE RESOLUTION – tele-conference calls are underway which will hopefully morph into a resumption of face-to-face meetings
  5. US/EUROPEAN WEATHER MODELS -call for a cooler/wetter period in the next 7-10 days – which has pressured prices
  6. TECHNICAL PICTURE – after the initial $1.15 surge in May/June, the mkt has fallen into a 40 cent range – awaiting an  acreage & weather update

The early planting delays have established a floor for the corn mkt – as some of the damage exacted on the crop is irreversible! However, there is still much uncertainty about the number of acres lost to beans & prevent planting and how well the late-planted crop will yield. The Aug 12 Crop Report with adjustments from the crazy June 28 Report will answer some of these questions & time will answer the rest! The questions about the crop along with a cooler/wetter weather trend have pushed the mkt into a sideways pattern!  But we feel when all the smoke clears, prices will reflect a corn crop that is much worse than many think!

SEPT BEANS

 

 

Sept Beans have staged a remarkable rally today to the top end of their recent trading range – on the back of US/China trade rumors. The scuttlebutt is that teleconferences will transform into actual face-to-face productive trade talks that may result in some kind of concrete agreement! Given the futile history of these talks, that seems unlikely – but with Donald Trump – you never know!! And indeed, a resolution would be more than welcome!!

Sept WHT

 

 

Mostly,  Sept Wht rides the coattails of Sept Beans & Corn – so it’s the perennial weak sister – however, one fundamental that could trump that would be US Wheat becoming competitive on the world mkt – which it isn’t right now! With massive world carryover stocks, exports are sorely needed to whittle those down to size – but they aren’t happening – as long as the US prices are over the world price!

AUG CATTLE

 

 

The convergence of several fundamentals has finally cratered the cattle mkt and it’s high time: the onset of the strongest demand period of the year for the meats, a marked reduction in production from the 4th Qtr  to the 1st Qtr & a $30 break in the mkt (103-73) to attract solid demand!

 

AUG HOGS

 

 

Along with Aug Cattle, Aug Hogs have also “turned the corner” – the beneficiary of  $30 break into the best seasonal demand period of the year! In addition, there is rising optimism that China would finally become a big customer of ours due to a trade deal resolution & the decimation of the Chinese hog herd due to ASF – which has reputedly thinned their herds by at least 20%!!

 

 

141 W. Jackson Blvd. Suite 1340A, Chicago, IL 60604  |  (800) 769-7021  |  (855) 264-6673 (Direct)   |  www.pricegroup.com

A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – an Employee Owned Diversified Financial Services Firm. Orders must be entered via direct verbal communication with a representative of our firm. We cannot be held responsible for orders left in any other manner.  PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses. Member NIBA, NFA.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The PRICE Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.

To SUBSCRIBE to the AGMASTER please go to http://bit.ly/xIGR6x.

To Unsubscribe from the AGMASTER please send an email to offers@pricegroup.com.

 

View the AGMASTER Archives at http://blog.pricegroup.com/tag/agmaster.

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337