About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower in response to the WASDE reports that showed less demand for the current marketing year. Export demand has been disappointing for much of the year and USDA does not see it improving anytime soon. USDA also made a slight cut to domestic demand, and this was a bit of a surprise. The ending stocks for the current marketing year were increased, and USDA pushed increased ending stocks into the next marketing year as well. USDA cut planted and harvested area for the new crop very slightly and left all other data except for the increased beginning stocks unchanged. The data was considered negative for prices, but price action has been weak anyway so much of the news is most likely already part of the price. The market continues weak on ideas of improving US crop conditions and worries about the overall world economic health. Growing conditions are improving in the US and monsoon rains are reported in India, but there is not a lot of consumptive buying around. It is warmer and drier for the crop in the Texas Panhandle and other producing areas of the US are through to be in good shape. Crop progress remains very close to the five year average and crop conditions are called mixed, but appear to be improving. The state breakdown for the crop condition ratings still show the problems in Texas as the crop there is showing the weakest condition. It is now turning warmer and drier in the Panhandle so conditions can improve. The Delta has also been wet and some rains have been seen in the Southeast over the last few weeks. A major storm could hit parts of the
Delta this weekend but might not do much damage to Cotton. The Indian monsoon is off to a slow start and production potential could be hurt there and in Pakistan. Monsoon rains have improved in central and southern parts of the country but these rains are arriving a couple of weeks late. June rains are less than normal this year, but growing areas saw above normal rains in the last week.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast could see some showers and storms this weekend. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather through this weekend. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 57.18 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 63,568 ba1es, from 64,028 bales yesterday. ICE said that 4 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries are now 244 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 6170 and 5780 December. Support is at 6280, 6260, and 6200 December, with resistance of 6470, 6530, and 6550 December.

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Cotton – Jul 11

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
=========================================================================
Item 2018/2019 2019/2020
prev Jul 11 prev Jul 11
==========================================================================
Area
Million acres
Planted 14.10 14.10 13.78 * 13.72 **
Harvested 10.21 10.21 12.54 * 12.49 **
Pounds
Yield per harv. acre 864 864 842 * 845 **
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 4.30 4.30 4.65 5.00
Production 18.37 18.37 22.00 22.00
Imports 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Supply, total 22.67 22.67 26.66 27.01
Domestic use 3.10 3.00 3.10 3.10
Exports 14.75 14.50 17.00 17.00
Use, total 17.85 17.50 20.10 20.10
Unaccounted 2/ 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.21
Ending stocks 4.65 5.00 6.40 6.70
Avg. farm price 3/ 70.00 70.00 64.00 63.00
==========================================================================
1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals
may not add due to rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the
previous season’s supply less total use and ending stocks. 3/ Cents per
pound for upland cotton.
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long
staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to
rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the previous season’s supply
less total use and ending stocks. 3/ Cents per pound for upland cotton.
*Planted area as reported in March 29 2019 Prospective Plantings. Harvested
area based on 10-year average abandonment by region with the Southwest
adjusted to reflect favorable moisture conditions. Yield based on 5-year
average yields by region.

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
2019/20 Proj.
World
Jun 77.53 125.32 44.74 125.27 44.75 0.31 77.26
Jul 79.27 125.79 44.12 124.27 44.15 0.34 80.42
World Less China
Jun 43.16 97.57 34.24 84.27 44.63 0.31 45.76
Jul 43.91 98.04 33.62 83.77 44.03 0.34 47.43
United States
Jun 4.65 22.00 0.01 3.10 17.00 0.16 6.40
Jul 5.00 22.00 0.01 3.10 17.00 0.21 6.70
Total Foreign
Jun 72.88 103.32 44.74 122.17 27.75 0.16 70.86
Jul 74.27 103.79 44.11 121.17 27.15 0.13 73.72
Major Exporters 4/
Jun 26.73 56.78 2.14 34.81 23.64 0.02 27.18
Jul 27.79 57.22 2.14 35.11 23.01 0.02 29.00
Major Importers 8/
Jun 44.23 43.52 40.00 83.09 2.88 0.14 41.65
Jul 44.67 43.52 39.41 81.79 2.90 0.11 42.79

================================================================================

DJ On-Call Cotton – Jul 11
As of Jul 5. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Jul 19 84 84 0 15 90 -75
Oct 19 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 19 32,320 32,814 -494 38,945 39,149 -204
Mar 20 21,204 21,136 68 3,583 3,500 83
May 20 8,304 8,327 -23 431 431 0
Jul 20 13,492 13,440 52 1,947 1,925 22
Dec 20 6,760 6,737 23 13,259 13,237 22
Mar 21 2,177 2,179 -2 574 574 0
May 21 634 636 -2 0 0 0
Jul 21 581 583 -2 0 0 0
Dec 21 0 0 0 331 331 0
Total 85,556 85,936 -380 59,085 59,237 -152
Open Open Change
Int Int
Jul 19 13 14 -1
Oct 19 215 187 28
Dec 19 131,581 130,017 1,564
Mar 20 29,873 28,209 1,664
May 20 3,531 3,568 -37
Jul 20 4,050 4,008 42
Dec 20 10,067 9,563 504
Mar 21 193 192 1
May 21 0 0 0
Jul 21 0 0 0
Dec 21 0 0 0
Total 179,523 175,758 3,765

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower as USDA showed a slight increase in Florida oranges production. The weather for Florida remains mostly good for crops. USDA has been showing very strong oranges production potential for Florida at or above 70 million boxes. A tropical system has formed in the Gulf of Mexico. The system will stay to the west of Florida and will move towards Louisiana and Texas, but the system is a sign that the tropics are getting more active. The system could still provide some beneficial rains for Florida, but for now the state is likely to see only scattered showers. Trends are sideways on the daily charts and weekly charts. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are at least as big as golf balls. Some fruit is now the size of tennis balls. Crop conditions are called good. Irrigation is being used a few times a week to help protect crop condition. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil as the harvest there is active.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered and light showers through the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers today, then drier weather and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 102.00, 99.00, and 95.00 September, with resistance at 107.00, 110.00, and 115.00 September.

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States: 2017-2018 and
Forecasted July 1, 2019
[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of
harvest the following year]
—————————————————————————————————-
: Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent
Crop and State :———————————————————————–
: 2017-2018 : 2018-2019 : 2017-2018 : 2018-2019
—————————————————————————————————-
: —— 1,000 boxes —— —— 1,000 tons —–
Oranges :
California, all …………: 45,400 50,000 1,816 2,000
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 35,900 40,000 1,436 1,600
Valencia ………………: 9,500 10,000 380 400
:
Florida, all ……………: 45,050 71,600 2,028 3,222
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 18,950 30,400 853 1,368
Valencia ………………: 26,100 41,200 1,175 1,854
:
Texas, all ……………..: 1,880 2,490 80 106
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 1,530 2,200 65 94
Valencia ………………: 350 290 15 12
:
United States, all ………: 92,330 124,090 3,924 5,328
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 56,380 72,600 2,354 3,062
Valencia ………………: 35,950 51,490 1,570 2,266
:
Grapefruit :
California ……………..: 4,000 4,500 160 180
Florida, all ……………: 3,880 4,510 165 192
Red …………………..: 3,180 3,740 135 159
White …………………: 700 770 30 33
Texas ………………….: 4,800 6,100 192 244
:
United States …………..: 12,680 15,110 517 616
:
Tangerines and mandarins 3/ :
California ……………..: 19,200 21,000 768 840
Florida ………………..: 750 990 36 47
:
United States …………..: 19,950 21,990 804 887
:
Lemons :
Arizona ………………..: 1,000 1,390 40 56
California ……………..: 21,200 21,000 848 840
:
United States …………..: 22,200 22,390 888 896
—————————————————————————————————-
1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80,
Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80.
2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties
in Florida and Texas.
3/ Includes tangelos and tangors.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Jul 11
In mm ps, (million pounds solid).
Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
7/6/2019 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
7/6/2019 7/7/2018 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 329.39 285.24 15.5%
Retail/Institutional 6.14 5.91 3.8%
Total 335.53 291.14 15.2%
Pack
Bulk 0.11 0.27 -58.3%
Retail/Institutional 0.66 1.22 -45.9%
Total Pack 0.77 1.49 -48.2%
Reprocessed -0.77 -1.49 -48.2%
Pack from Fruit 0.00 0.00 -100.0%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.05 -0.15 -64.3%
Imports – Foreign 0.35 1.42 -75.1%
Domestic Receipts 0.03 0.06 -49.6%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.00 NC
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.02 0.00 NA
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 329.08 285.35 15.3%
Retail/Institutional 6.79 7.12 -4.6%
Total 335.88 292.48 14.8%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 2.94 2.89 1.4%
Exports 0.19 0.20 -7.6%
Total (Bulk) 3.12 3.10 0.8%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 0.89 1.01 -11.9%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 0.89 1.01 -11.9%
Total Movement 4.01 4.11 -2.3%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 325.96 282.25 15.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.90 6.12 -3.5%
Ending Inventory 331.86 288.37 15.1%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
6-Jul-19 7-Jul-18 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 237.21 185.02 28.2%
Retail/Institutional 5.92 7.20 -17.8%
Total 243.13 192.21 26.5%
Pack
Bulk 141.83 88.50 60.3%
Retail/Institutional 48.22 49.76 -3.1%
Total Pack 190.06 138.26 37.5%
Reprocessed -102.77 -97.16 5.8%
Pack from Fruit 87.29 41.10 112.4%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -1.07 0.74 43.6%
Imports – Foreign 242.48 270.21 -10.3%
Domestic Receipts 9.82 8.30 18.3%
Receipts of Florida Produ 0.04 0.52 -93.2%
from Non-Reporting Entit 3.56 1.16 206.4%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 1.83 0.61 199.2%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 532.94 457.90 16.4%
Retail/Institutional 54.14 56.96 -4.9%
Total 587.08 514.86 14.0%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 190.45 163.19 16.7%
Domestic 16.53 12.46 32.7%
Exports 206.98 175.65 17.8%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 48.24 50.84 -5.1%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 48.24 50.84 -5.1%
Total Movement 255.21 226.49 12.7%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 325.96 282.25 15.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.90 6.12 -3.5%
Ending Inventory 331.86 288.37 15.1%

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Jul 11
In mm ps, (million pounds solid).
Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
6/29/2019 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
6/29/2019 6/30/2018 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 333.37 287.55 15.9%
Retail/Institutional 5.94 6.40 -7.2%
Total 339.31 293.96 15.4%
Pack
Bulk 4.13 0.52 687.0%
Retail/Institutional 1.83 1.04 76.5%
Total Pack 5.96 1.56 281.3%
Reprocessed -5.96 -1.56 281.3%
Pack from Fruit 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.08 -0.07 24.3%
Imports – Foreign 0.63 2.89 -78.3%
Domestic Receipts 4.48 0.00 NA
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.28 0.00 NA
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.02 0.00 NA
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 336.86 289.34 16.4%
Retail/Institutional 7.77 7.44 4.5%
Total 344.63 296.78 16.1%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 7.22 3.80 89.7%
Exports 0.25 0.30 -17.1%
Total (Bulk) 7.47 4.11 81.9%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.64 1.53 6.9%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.64 1.53 6.9%
Total Movement 9.10 5.64 61.5%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 329.39 285.24 15.5%
Retail/Institutional 6.14 5.91 3.8%
Ending Inventory 335.53 291.14 15.2%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
29-Jun-19 30-Jun-18 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 237.21 185.02 28.2%
Retail/Institutional 5.92 7.20 -17.8%
Total 243.13 192.21 26.5%
Pack
Bulk 141.72 88.23 60.6%
Retail/Institutional 47.57 48.55 -2.0%
Total Pack 189.29 136.77 38.4%
Reprocessed -102.00 -95.67 6.6%
Pack from Fruit 87.29 41.10 112.4%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -1.01 0.89 13.9%
Imports – Foreign 242.13 268.79 -9.9%
Domestic Receipts 9.79 8.24 18.8%
Receipts of Florida Produ 0.04 0.52 -93.2%
from Non-Reporting Entit 3.56 1.16 206.4%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 1.81 0.61 196.6%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 533.25 457.79 16.5%
Retail/Institutional 53.48 55.74 -4.1%
Total 586.73 513.53 14.3%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 187.51 160.29 17.0%
Domestic 16.34 12.26 33.3%
Exports 203.85 172.55 18.1%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 47.35 49.83 -5.0%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 47.35 49.83 -5.0%
Total Movement 251.20 222.39 13.0%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 329.39 285.24 15.5%
Retail/Institutional 6.14 5.91 3.8%
Ending Inventory 335.53 291.14 15.2%

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were a little higher in New York on new forecasts for cold weather this weekend, but a little lower in London. The new cold outbreak might not do much more damage, but it was a reason to support the market. There was bad weather at flowering time and the harvest is reporting low yields and quality, anyway. There is a lot of talk that production will be much less than 50 million bags as the press and the coffee association there all report reduced yields and quality. Brazil has kept its export pace strong even with less production, and the strong export pace has helped jeep New York and London from rallying. Vietnam is also reporting lower yields for the current crop as the weather was not good for flowering earlier in the year. There have been some hot and dry spells that have hurt yield and quality for these crops as well, but showers are reported in the Central Highlands now and ideas are that conditions and production potential have improved. Production in Central America continues to suffer from poor investment in the trees as prices have until recently been too low for many producers there to make much money.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.367 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 103.48 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers and storms. ICE New York said that 53 notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 610 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 105.00, 99.00, and 94.00 September. Support is at 105.00, 102.00, and 101.00 September, and resistance is at 110.00, 115.00 and 118.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1390 and 1340 September. Support is at 1410, 1380, and 1360 September, and resistance is at 1460, 1490, and 1510 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower and closed near support at recent lows on the charts as the weather in India seems to be getting better. The Indian weather service said monsoon rains were much improved in Sugar areas last week and were above normal for the first time all season. The market still expects production losses due to the late start and below normal rains until now. The losses in India could be significant due to the late start to the monsoon, but the country has a big surplus and should have no problem with supplies for the coming year. The production losses this year could mean that India will feel less pressure to dump Sugar on the world market and that would help world prices hold current levels or rally. The Indian monsoon continues to improve in rain amounts and coverage but remains behind average and rains are below average for the month. Many private forecasters expect less rain and warmer temperatures than normal. Water supplies are low so good monsoon rains will be needed. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather or light showers. Temperatures should be below normal today and near to above normal starting tomorrow.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1230, 1210, and 1200 October, and resistance is at 1260, 1280, and 1290 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 324.00, 323.00, and 320.00 October, and resistance is at 328.00, 331.00, and 333.00 October.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2017/18 2018/19 Est. 2019/20 Proj. 2019/20 Proj.
Item Jun Jul
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 1876 2008 1526 1761
Production 2/ 9293 8947 9138 9260
Beet Sugar 5279 4920 5154 5175
Cane Sugar 4014 4028 3985 4085
Florida 1983 2005 2051 2051
Hawaii 0 0 0 0
Louisiana 1862 1875 1800 1900
Texas 169 147 134 134
Imports 3277 3091 3219 2957
TRQ 3/ 1663 1604 1381 1568
Other Program 4/ 326 400 350 350
Other 5/ 1287 1087 1488 1039
Mexico 1223 997 1418 969
Total Supply 14445 14046 13883 13978
Exports 170 35 35 35
Deliveries 12185 12250 12320 12280
Food 12048 12125 12175 12175
Other 6/ 137 125 145 105
Miscellaneous 82 0 0 0
Total Use 12438 12285 12355 12315
Ending Stocks 2008 1761 1528 1663
Stocks to Use Ratio 16.1 14.3 12.4 13.5
================================================================================
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
Sugar
2018/19 Est.
Jun 1395 6400 70 4716 2153 995
Jul 1395 6425 70 4716 2179 995
2019/20 Proj.
Jun 995 6183 70 4776 1476 995
Jul 995 6248 70 4776 1542 995
================================================================================

DJ Brazil Center-South Sugar Crush Up 1.2% at 46.1M Tons in 2H June -Unica
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed more cane in the second half of June compared with a year earlier, according to industry group Unica.
Center-south mills crushed 46.1 million metric tons of cane in the period, a rise of 1.2% from the same period a year earlier. They produced 2.2 million tons of sugar, down 4.1%, and made 2.3 billion liters of ethanol, a decline of 1.2%.
The amount of sugar and ethanol produced both fell, despite the increase in the amount of cane processed, because the total recoverable sugar in a metric ton of cane fell by 3.8% compared with the same period a year earlier.
The production mix for the second half of last month was 37.1% sugar to 62.9% ethanol. A year earlier, the mix was 37.7% sugar and 62.3% ethanol.
Brazil is the world’s biggest sugar producer and exporter, and the center-south grows about 90% of the country’s cane.
In the season from April 1 through July 1, mills in the region crushed 216.9 million tons of cane, down 3% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production fell 8.9% to 8.9 million tons, and ethanol output fell 4.3% to 10.6 billion liters.
The production mix for the season through July 1 was 34.7% sugar to 65.3% ethanol. A year earlier, the mix was 35.6% sugar and 64.4% ethanol.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower as further speculative selling was seen. New York has now given back all of the early week rally and London is not far behind. The charts show that the majority of the Monday rally has been given up and that futures could test the support near the breakout point today. Some producer selling may have hit the market as well as prices tested the highs made in June. The uneven weather in West Africa is still a feature. Ghana says it has lost 50,000 tons of Cocoa from its main crop due to disease and expects to lose more from the mid crop and maybe the nest main crop. The weather in Ivory Coast has been drier than normal for the last couple of weeks and there is some talk that production of the next main crop could be hurt. Some showers are returning to West Africa now to help relieve stress on trees. Ivory Coast arrivals re now 2.115 million tons., from 1.904 million tons last year. Ivory Coast arrivals were 2.061 million tons through the end of June, from 1.869 million last year. Ghana said that producers could get 70% of the minimum in the new pricing program it is putting together with Ivory Coast.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.401 million bags. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against July futures today and that total deliveries for the month are 725 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2480, 2450, and 2420 September, with resistance at 2530, 2550, and 2590 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1970 September. Support is at 1850, 1830, and 1810 September, with resistance at 1870, 1900, and 1930 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322